Abstract: The rise of China is one of the most notable events in the early 21st century. The strategic impacts of its rise and interactions between the hegemonic power and the rising power have become focal points for scholars in the field of international relations. This article uses prospect theory, power transition theory, and nuclear deterrence theory as the basis for constructing a theory of strategic competition to explain the relationship between the hegemonic power and the rising power, and the strategic interactions between them during the power transition process. This new theory of strategic competition maintains that states take diplomatic actions not just to seek gains, but also to avoid losses. Building upon a critical review and revision of power transition theory, the theory of strategic competition proposes that before the rising power overtakes it, the hegemonic power will take action to avoid incurring losses, and that in response the rising power will passively take action to avoid its own losses. After the rising power has overtaken the hegemonic power, however, it will take action to expand its interests, and the hegemonic power will then passively take action to avoid its own losses. Under the inhibitive influence of nuclear deterrence, strategic competition between the hegemonic power and the rising power is limited to peaceful measures including diplomatic means. This article tests the theory of strategic competition through examining the paradigm shifts in diplomacy of the US and China that have occurred since 2010. Full text available here.
