Abstract
This article examines the changing nature of the China challenge and the global response to a rising China. As its comprehensive national strength grows, China poses broader challenges and provides greater opportunities for the global community. One influential school of thinking – offensive realism – suggests that the rise of a great power will lead to new and tragic conflicts. After examining contending perspectives on the China challenge, however, we find that there is persuasive evidence and strong logic to support alternative conceptions of the future. Tragedy is not inevitable. In fact, ‘managed great power relations’ can be a viable alternative to the tragic scenario. If major powers take great care to develop and manage their truly interdependent relations, mutual gains from cooperation will far exceed the costs of conflict. There are powerful incentives for cooperation and strong deterrence against conflict. As China’s power has grown, Beijing’s relations with major powers around the world have improved rather than deteriorated. In meeting the China challenge, cautious optimism can be justified. China’s major challenges may predominantly come from inside, rather than outside. For neighbors and other great powers, the approaches they select to meet the China challenge will have great impact on not only their relations with China but also the strategic balance of the future world.
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