Abstract
Edward Mansfield (this issue) offers a twofold appraisal of the significance of rising powers—defined here as the BRIC countries—for the study of international political economy (IPE). On the one hand, current approaches in IPE suffice to explain the behavior of rising powers since none threatens the present architecture of the global economy or the positions of the United States and European Union (EU). On the other hand, one rising power, China, has managed to surpass the others in military and economic capabilities, warranting a closer examination of the linkages between political economy and national security. While this view seems eminently reasonable, I argue that forecasting the relative material capabilities of the BRICs over a longer period, say over the next quarter century, requires stretching the boundaries of IPE to pay close attention to incremental changes in demographic patterns and in the geographic distribution of vital resources. Such factors are difficult to capture in the ontologies of conventional IPE theories; yet, over the long run, they may well determine the upper limits for a rising power’s capabilities in the global economy. With this in mind, I offer the following tentative proposition: Russia is the BRIC country with the best prospects for boosting both its global economic clout and its population’s living standards over the next quarter century.
 
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