Abstract
The United States’ growing frustrations with China lead to the temptation to “get tough” with Beijing. But this may prove difficult given the interdependencies between the two countries and China’s own ability to retaliate against and inflict pain on U.S. interests. Moreover, the relationship is at something of a geostrategic inflection point-with China’s power and influence growing regionally and globally, while the United States’ power appears to be declining relatively. While tempting for Washington, getting tough at such a time can be provocatively dangerous. Power-transition theorists are quick to remind us that this is precisely the most unstable and vulnerable period in relations between established powers and rising powers-i.e., when one or the other misjudges its own relative position and takes preemptive actions against the other. The United States remains far stronger than China across a range of indicators, but the Chinese leadership may overestimate both China’s strengths and the United States’ weaknesses. For its part, the Trump administration may underestimate China’s sensitivities and capacity to retaliate against U.S. interests.
Under such conditions, mature management of a volatile relationship is mandatory-bounding the negative dynamics while working to expand the areas of positive cooperation is the principal challenge for both governments. With this broad maxim in mind, the balance of this essay assesses the state of the relationship that the Trump administration inherits and the deeper variables that will affect its evolution in the future.
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