Abstract
Northeast Asia is a nuclear tinderbox that could easily be set off, given rising regional tensions, widespread nuclear power capabilities, and the absence of strong regional security institutions. Given this context, states need to identify and seek to prevent “trigger events”—circumstances that could stimulate proliferation cascades. While it is important to continue the current emphasis on strengthening supply-side constraints (such as the Proliferation Security Initiative), new efforts to address the demand side are sorely needed. These efforts should include shoring up currently weakened global nonproliferation norms, facilitating direct talks among states on issues of military concern, and renewing efforts to address underlying sources of regional conflict (historical problems, territorial disputes, and the still unresolved Korean War). While difficult, these new approaches offer the best chance of keeping two and a half nuclear states in Northeast Asia from becoming six.