Abstract
The Strait of Hormuz is widely viewed as one of the most important maritime chokepoints in existence today – certainly it is the most important in terms of the global energy system, with one fifth of the oil consumed worldwide flowing through it each day. Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt the flow of oil through the strait, particularly in response to an attack, with potentially dire consequences for the price of oil and the world economy. A review of detailed open-source analysis, however, indicates that Iran’s ability to close the strait is not a forgone conclusion, especially in light of the extensive U.S. military presence in the region. Furthermore, closing the strait would also have severe economic consequences for Iran. So, what is Iran’s ability to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and what is the potential impact to the global energy system? Under what circumstances might Iran attempt to do this? In light of the uncertainty, why does Iran continue to make this threat? This paper shows that Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz represents an information campaign against the U.S. to which we have failed to respond adequately.
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