Abstract
To the Editors:
Christopher Layne, in his analysis of why new great powers will rise, states (citing C. Fred Bergsten) that, “early in the next decade, Japan’s GNP (gross national product) may equal or surpass America’s. Such an economic change would be a fact of enormous geopolitical significance.”
Even if Bergsten’s and Layne’s surmise is correct, and Japan’s GNP comes to surpass America’s under Bergsten’s assumptions, I believe the change will not constitute “a fact of enormous geopolitical significance,” in the context of multi-dimensional competitive great power relations in which Layne places his discussion. To the contrary, the change will make little difference in great power relationships. What Japan can make out of its GNP in the way of global power advantage, it has now. I am led to this conclusion for three reasons…
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