Preview: I summarize from previous research how China approaches three critical factors that shape war termination: wartime diplomacy, escalation and third-party mediation. I then evaluate how China’s increased power, nationalism and participation in international institutions may affect each of these tendencies, respectively. I argue that China is more likely than ever to talk only to weaker opponents, to rely on escalation to bring about peace, and to leverage third parties, including international institutions, to pressure its adversaries to capitulate. I conclude with actionable recommendations, given these findings, for adjusting U.S. peacetime policy, posture and plans to better protect its interests.
