Abstract
The article attempts to examine the emerging balance-of-power system in Northeast Asia (NEA) that is replacing the USA’s hegemony. A multipolar balance of power is beginning to take shape in the region. Within this new regional order, China and the USA are the strongest players. There are also other poles, which, albeit less influential than the USA and China, are still significant enough. Russia is the most important among them, as it is a fully independent actor with considerable strategic capabilities.
Although NEA is still very much ripe for rivalry, there exist powerful forces and trends that raise the prospects for a stable and relatively peaceful regional system. These pacifying factors are nuclear weapons, demographics, and multilateral institutions. A multipolar balance of power, which has sufficient flexibility, can be another contributor to stability in NEA. By pursuing smart balance-of-power diplomacy, Russia would be able to secure its national interests in the region as well as promote peace and security.
Moscow will have to make its strategic moves in the context of rising geopolitical competition between China and the USA One possible future option for Russia would be to end its present de-facto alignment with China and establish entente with the USA. Rather than hard balancing against Beijing, the Russian–US alignment is likely to represent some form of coordinated hedging vis-à-vis China. So far this is just a scenario that might or might not materialize. Yet its very possibility could affect the calculations and behavior of NEA’s players.
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