Introduction
China’s ongoing nuclear modernization program is significantly altering the size and character of its nuclear arsenal. For decades following its first successful nuclear test in October 1964, China deployed only a few dozen nuclear weapons, most of which were affixed atop unsophisticated and vulnerable land-based missiles. Over the last decade, the country’s nuclear modernization program has seen a significant expansion in the size of its deployed arsenal. Credible public estimates put China’s deployed warheads at between 160 and 260.
The modernization program’s qualitative changes have been more significant than its quantitative changes. China’s arsenal has gradually shifted from unsophisticated liquid-fueled, silo-based missiles to road-mobile, solid-fueled ones. In 2015, the Pentagon assessed that, for the first time, China equipped some missiles with multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
One of the most significant of these qualitative changes to China’s nuclear arsenal is the development and deployment of the country’s first credible ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force, the Jin-class submarines. China’s nascent sea-based deterrent will present new challenges to longstanding nuclear practices. Among these will be how to structure command and control for the new SSBN fleet to maintain an appropriate balance between positive control (the ability to always launch when desired) and negative control (to never launch when not desired). In a new report for the National Defense University, I analyze potential choices for Chinese command and control of its SSBN force and the implications for strategic stability with the United States.
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