Abstract: China’s North Korea policy is a combination of China’s strategic goal toward
regional order including U.S.–China relations and tactical management over North
Korea’s crisis action. Since the post–Cold War era, China has preferred the status
quo as its regional strategy, which leads them to operate tactical management
over North Korea risk. North Korea risk consists of uncertainty, which means
uncontrollability of North Korea, and instability, which means the possibility of
collapse of the North Korean regime. These risks often play as a crisis of China’s
status quo strategy, so China is inclined to implement its North Korea Policy
to control these crises. The basis of China’ North Korea policy is engagement,
considering that China has to protect North Korea’s conventional and geopolitical
values. However, the engagement comes in different forms according to the
characteristics of the crisis. The one is coercive engagement, which appears when
North Korea’s uncertainty prevails over instability. The other one is inclusive
engagement, which occurs when North Korea’s instability is stronger than
uncertainty. This hypothesis can be applied to past and current situations. With this
point of view, it is possible to predict the future of China’s North Korea policy. Full text available here.
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