Abstract: Fears at the beginning of 2018 of imminent military hostilities on the Korean Peninsula were replaced by hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the long-standing North Korean nuclear problem. At first, North Korea appeared to have reversed its long-standing resistance to abandoning its nuclear arsenal. After meeting with Kim Jong-un, a senior South Korean delegation announced Pyongyang had “clearly expressed its commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” But a careful reading of Pyongyang’s offer showed it came with heavy strings attached and consistent with enduring regime objectives. North Korean statements reflected traditional regime demands for conditionally and reciprocity. All previous attempts at diplomatic resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue have failed, so there is good reason to be skeptical and wary. Given the lengthy record of diplomatic failures in curbing the North Korean nuclear program, it is prudent to be cautious is trusting reports that the regime is now willing to abandon its nuclear arsenal. That is not to say the U.S. should not try again, but engagement should be based on a thorough knowledge of past efforts. Even during negotiations, the North will continue to augment and refine its missile and nuclear capabilities. So, Washington and its allies must keep their eyes open, their shields up, and their swords sharp.
