Abstract
A quiet revolution is transforming Japanese diplomacy. This revolution predates the current administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and spans multiple governments in Tokyo, including those run by the now-opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). For more than a decade, Tokyo has worked to diversify its democratic partnerships beyond the continuing anchor of the U.S.-Japan alliance by forging closer relations with likeminded powers in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. In pursuing a grand strategy of connectivity among democracies, Japan has leveraged different foreign policy instruments, from foreign aid to strategic infrastructure development to defense supply. Japan’s ultimate success in this endeavor could determine whether the United States will maintain its leadership in an Asia- Pacific region buffeted by dynamic power shifts.
It is possible to imagine a more robust Asian architecture of cooperation and reassurance emerging from the growing web of countries friendly to, and increasingly involved with, Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance. This web would not contain China, but could shape the context of its rise in ways that deter conflict, encouraging China to embrace regional norms of democratic cooperation and the resolution of international disputes through peaceful negotiation rather than military intimidation or outright force. This web could also help to integrate transitional countries such as Myanmar and non-democratic states such as Vietnam into a broader grouping to help sustain a pluralistic and rules-based regional order.
The future of the U.S.-Japan alliance, and U.S. leadership in Asia, is therefore closely bound up with Japan’s project of democratic outreach. The fact that Japan is diversifying its security and diplomatic relations beyond the United States is, on one hand, an indicator of the changing power dynamics in Asia and Tokyo’s unwillingness to solely rely on the U.S. security umbrella. At the same time, Japan’s new look at regional and global security is welcome: the U.S.-Japan alliance rests on a stronger foundation when Tokyo, and not just Washington, enjoys close relations with militarily capable democracies such as Australia, South Korea, India, and Europe, and with rising economic powers such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and potentially Myanmar.
This report for the U.S.-Japan Commission on the Future of the Alliance examines Japan’s deepening democratic partnerships and the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance. The timing of such a study is propitious, as Prime Minister Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso laid the intellectual foundations for a grand strategy of democratic outreach during their previous service in government. This study begins by examining how Japanese leaders have framed their democracy diplomacy in different ways, including an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” connecting Asian and Western democracies, trilaterals linking the U.S.-Japan alliance to Australia and India, and a Quadrilateral Partnership comprising the key Indo-Pacific powers that encompass the sea lanes of communication so vital to Japan’s economy. The report then maps the major strands of Japan’s democracy diplomacy. The first — and most developed strand — targets the major Asia-Pacific powers: Australia, South Korea, and India. The second strand covers Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, and also regional architecture centered on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The third strand focuses on Europe: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom, and France. The report ultimately presents a series of recommendations for how Japan and its democratic partners can come together to expand cooperation to reinforce a rules-based international order.
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