Abstract
This article develops a theory about the role of leaders in long-term international bargaining, specifically in the context of negotiations within existing military alliances. The international relations literature suggests that domestic opposition (to cooperation on a particular issue) increases a state’s bargaining power vis-á-vis its negotiating partner. This study confirms that domestic opposition to cooperation generally increases a state’s bargaining power at the international level, but it suggests that domestic opposition to the state’s leader – which affects the leader’s vulnerability – does not have a uniform effect on the country’s bargaining power. It demonstrates the central role a state leader plays in international bargaining and explains the dynamics of alliance negotiations left unexplained in the literature. In order to examine the argument, this study uses “structured, focused comparison” of the U.S. alliances with Japan and Spain.
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