Preview: The credibility of the United States’ nuclear umbrella has been questioned time and again by its allies in Europe and Asia since the dawn of the nuclear era. Skepticism toward U.S. extended deterrence to the Republic of Korea (ROK) is particularly high amid their strained relationship in light of political leadership changes in Washington and Seoul as well as North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear capabilities. A growing sense of abandonment among South Koreans raises the concern that Seoul may go nuclear. However, pursuing nuclear weapons is not likely given the enormous security and economic costs. A more likely scenario is Seoul’s nuclear hedging, i.e. “maintaining, or at least appearing to maintain, a viable option for the relatively rapid acquisition of nuclear weapons.” South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines may be part of Seoul’s nuclear hedging strategy.
