Abstract
Could an Iranian regime that had developed a nuclear weapons capacity be “deterred?” What would such deterrence look like? What would both Iran and its foes have to do to promote stability? This article considers these questions, beginning with an exploration of the internal political landscape of Iran and how it influences critical choices made by the regime. Next, the article examines Iran’s nuclear program, within the context of domestic decision making as the key driver. Third, the article discusses Iranian culture and negotiating behavior and how these might affect the question of deterrence. Finally, the article asks what it all means for attempts to deter Iran, should it ever become a nuclear weapons–capable state—particularly an undeclared one, which is the most likely outcome.
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