Abstract

This paper explores the extent measures taken by the government of Thailand helped households cope with shocks caused by the 2009 recession. A counterfactual was created by: quantifying the effects of the shocks (to tourism and exports); applying a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier analysis to simulate the indirect and induced effects; and mapping the sectoral changes to household incomes using data from the Socio-economic Surveys. The effects of the stimulus package introduced in early 2009 were then superimposed on the effects of government spending. The shocks alone would have directly reduced labour income by 2.1 per cent, or by up to 7.8 per cent if indirect and induced effects were included. Government measures raised household incomes by about 0.9 per cent on average, offsetting the shocks to some extent. The measures especially helped poorer households. On average, those in the lowest decile and those living in rural areas gained.
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