Abstract
Recent remarks by Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian advocating increased sovereignty for Taiwan underscore concern that further efforts to declare formal independence from China could ultimately lead to a Chinese decision to use force. Michael Glosny of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology presents several scenarios to assess the likelihood of a successful Chinese submarine blockade against Taiwan. Glosny argues that although a submarine blockade would likely impose significant costs on Taiwan, “the threat of a successful blockade is overstated.”
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