Abstract
Russia’s military annexation of Crimea in early 2014, and the ensuing crisis in its relations with neighboring countries and the Western world, brought to the fore an age-old question that had faded from the central attention of policymakers: what are Russia’s long-term foreign policy ambitions and military grand strategy? U.S. policymakers are more concerned at the moment about Vladimir Putin’s immediate goals, and the associated possibility of further trouble in eastern Ukraine or elsewhere. That issue is clearly important. But for longer-term U.S. security policy planning, it is also essential to ask about broader underlying trends.
Where is Russia headed, now that it has regained some of its economic power and political confidence (despite the country’s recent economic troubles) that was shattered at the end of the Cold War? For the foreseeable future, perhaps another decade, this question will be largely indistinguishable from the personal proclivities of Mr. Putin, who could remain president until 2024. But it is also useful to try to disentangle the differences, if any, between Putin and the broader Russian strategic culture in which he operates. This will be crucial for long-term U.S. strategic planning—and for setting realistic expectations about what we can anticipate, and work toward, in the Western relationship with the Russian Federation.
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