Summary
China’s military build-up, particularly the expansion of its long-range nuclear forces and its development of ‘anti-access/area-denial’ (A2/AD) capabilities, poses a serious threat to both the American position in East Asia, and the security of other regional powers. The growth of these forces challenges Washington’s ability, and perhaps its willingness, to project power into the region. This could call American security guarantees into question, eventually undermining the United States’ place as the dominant Asia-Pacific power. Left unchecked, perceived shifts in the regional military balance away from the US and its allies towards China could also raise the risks of miscalculation and deterrence failure.
After a decade spent emphasising counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations, finding a credible response to China’s A2/AD capabilities is now the central task confronting US military planners. This Adelphi analyses the debate over the future of US military strategy in Asia. It identifies and assesses three approaches to the problem; highlights their likely implications for weapons procurement, force posture and alliance cohesion; and outlines a potential synthesis combining elements of each.