Abstract
In 1978, China’s leaders made the fateful decision to abandon Mao Zedong’s failed and futile quest for a uniquely Chinese development strategy in favour of priorities and practices that had transformed Japan, South Korea and the other ‘Asian tigers’ into economic powerhouses. At the time, they argued – and expected – that doing so would increase the scope of China’s independence. They were wrong. China has benefited enormously from Deng Xiaoping’s acceptance of the Carter administration’s de facto invitation to take advantage of the US-led ‘free world’ (now global) system without first changing China’s political system or formally aligning with the United States, but the benefits have come at the price of growing dependence on the system that makes them possible.
China is richer, stronger and more influential than at any time in the past 200 years, but it is also more dependent on developments and decisions made beyond its borders. It may also be more vulnerable than other rapidly rising big countries to internal problems and weaknesses. The complexity and contingency of the various domestic and external factors that promise to drive, constrain and shape China’s ambitions and actions make confident prediction of the country’s future behaviour and the efficacy of its policies exceedingly difficult. Indeed, the most accurate statement one could make about the possible shape, pace and implications of China’s rise is, ‘It depends’. Aaron Friedberg’s thoughtful and thought-provoking book does many things well, but what it does best is to underscore the uncertainties and contingencies that must be factored into any analysis of China’s rise and its implications for the United States and other nations.
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