Abstract
There are increasing signs that the United States and China are on a collision course. Some scholars see this course as following the historical pattern by which a declining power refuses to yield to a rising power, and war ensues. Yet the collision is by no means inevitable. The United States should be able to accommodate China’s rise without compromising its core interests or its values. Freed from his pre-election necessity to appear tough, President Barack Obama now has the opportunity to re-examine the pivot to Asia he announced in 2011 to choose between a quest for a regional accommodation and a military confrontation.
Accommodation should not be misconstrued as appeasement or unilateral concession. It should be conceived, rather, as action in the interests of both sides that contributes to global stability. It proceeds from the assumption that relations between international powers can benefit from significant complementary interests, even if other interests conflict. Washington and Beijing share interests in nuclear non-proliferation, securing global commerce, stabilising oil markets and preserving the environment, as well as preventing terrorism, piracy and the spread of pandemics. To these ends, China signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1992, joined the UN Security Council in unanimously condemning North Korea’s 2012 ballisticmissile test and January 2013 nuclear test, and conducted its first bilateral anti-piracy operation with the US Navy in the Horn of Africa at the end of last year. China is also a member of the World Trade Organisation and the Financial Action Task Force, and its increased contributions to the International Monetary Fund in 2012 were of great benefit to failing economies in Europe. Although they have the potential for greater cooperation, the United States and China already work together on many issues.
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