The introduction of nuclear weapons into the national defense structures of Pakistan and India in
1998 has not brought an era of peace and stability as some had forecast. Full-scale war was only
narrowly avoided in 1999 and 2002. The objective of this study is to evaluate the stability of
deterrence, particularly the concept of minimum deterrence in South Asia today. Within this
context, the study analyzes Pakistan’s strategic thinking about the role of nuclear weapons.
Interviews with Pakistani and U.S. officials, ex-officials, military officers, and academics were
conducted to gain insight into the development of policy. Site visits to civilian nuclear facilities
were also conducted. The conclusions outline a path for Pakistan that would help achieve nuclear
stability in South Asia, including a possible role for the U.S.
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