Abstract
In the aftermath of the nuclear accident at Fukushima, Japan in 2011, several governments, notably those of Japan, Germany, Switzerland and Italy, abandoned plans to extend or increase their nuclear capacity. Globally, however, the impact on nuclear-energy expansion may be rather modest. China is among the countries that will continue to build nuclear power plants, and it should be a leader in finding ways to build and operate them safely.
Developing countries such as China and India need to exploit all usable possibilities to meet their rapidly growing electricity demand. High energy prices and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa increase the value of electrical generation that does not rely on continued large-scale import of fuel. Climate change is also a driving force. Modern nuclear technology is mature, clean and safe (the Fukushima reactors were built in the 1970s, before the Three Mile Island accident led to improvements in design). Nuclear power is still the only energy source that can practically and economically replace fossil fuels on a large scale. If no new reactors in OECD countries, and only half the projected reactors in non-OECD countries, are built (the International Energy Agency’s ‘Low Nuclear Case’), it would cost an additional $1.5 trillion (10%) to meet demand by 2035 from other sources such as renewables. The financial burden would be particularly heavy for those countries with limited indigenous energy resources.
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