Abstract
The Russo-Chinese relationship is one of the most important relationships in both Asian and international security. It is undergoing dynamic evolution as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine. This article stresses that the bilateral relationship is one where both Moscow and Beijing espouse the logic of the strategic triangle vis-a-vis the United States. But Washington renounces the effort to deal with Russia and its Asian relations as a strategic entity. Moreover, over the last 12-18 months, although Russia has sought an independent standing in Asia apart from China, it is increasingly unable to compete with China or assert that independence, due to its invasion of Ukraine, isolation from the West, sanctions, and failed economic policies. Thus, it is losing out to China and becoming more dependent on it. These trends are apparent in Russian policies towards Japan, the two Koreas, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia.
Asia is the dynamic center of international relations and the Sino-American rivalry is Asia’s defining strategic relationship. Consequently, Sino-Russian relations are a secondary strategic relationship in Asia even though Russia might be China’s “main strategic partner.”1 Both sides profess growing support for a multipolar world order with reduced U.S. power. They also assert that their relationship fosters global peace and security. Furthermore, both sides claim that relations are at an unprecedented high level, and that a new stage in those relations will emerge shortly. Some analysts even envision a greater Asia from St. Petersburg to Shanghai emerging due to this relationship. Therefore, the following question arises: to what extent does this partnership threaten U.S. interests in Asia and its “rebalance” policy? While China views the U.S. rebalancing policy suspiciously, the Russian government believes that partnership with China constrains the United States globally, and that Moscow’s profile in Asia is steadily rising.2 Unfortunately, both assertions may be seriously misplaced.
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