Abstract
Since 1998 Russia has promoted the idea of a strategic triangle in Asia with itself, China and India. In 2005 after seven years of discussions, this triangle began to take shape through a regular meeting of foreign ministers. However, after three years, it is clear that this triangle’s utility as a way of enhancing Russia’s standing in Asia is limited and will remain so. The reasons for this are varied and complex, including: Sino-Indian rivalries, Russian anxieties about China, India’s partnership with the Unied States and Russia’s own inability to follow through on its energy and arms sales commitments. As a result Moscow is coming under ever greater pressure to make concessions to China which must remain its fundamental strategic partner in Asia at all costs because it can decisively threaten Russian Asia. These concessions in Central Asia given to China, together with the issue of a U.S. missile defense plan and the U.S. alliance system in Asia also help to undermine Russia’s ability to compete with Washington for influence over India. As a result, the danger foretold by Russian analysts that excessive closeness to China could lead to equally excessive Russian dependence on China may already be taking place.
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