Abstract
This article argues that, paradoxically, the nuclear issue is the only thing with enough potency to foster a broader detente & reconciliation between Iran & the US. It is asserted that Iranian nuclear development continues to enjoy a political consensus at the elite level that centers on bargaining with the West from a position of strength. Further, the Iranian political elite & public see the nuclear issue as an avenue to achieving a long sought after regional status amid domestic challenges & regional security concerns. Thus, the nuclear program, i.e., the quest for an independent nuclear fuel cycle, is strategic & equated with deterrence, not weaponization, which, it is argued, could result in Iran being labeled a pariah. Why weaponization is untenable to the Iranian leadership is examined, along with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s likely diplomatic course in his second term. Three scenarios for how the nuclear issue might pan out are presented, & it is contended that each side must heed the urgency to pursue talks.
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