Abstract
This paper reviews Chinese and American energy futures, focusing in particular on long-term oil supply and demand, policy deliberations in China and (to a lesser extent) the United States on energy strategy and its implications for national-level decision making, and the implications of Sino-American energy futures for bilateral relations. There is far more commonality in the energy requirements of both countries than is often acknowledged, but this overlap is often obscured by domestic political agendas, corporate and bureaucratic interests, and the increasing tendency to view energy as a defense planning issue, in particular with reference to future Chinese and US maritime strategies. The conditions for heightened Sino-American energy collaboration exist, and some important initial steps have been undertaken toward this end. But sustained and far more vigorous governmental and institutional interactions will be needed to forestall the potential for heightened antagonism in the longer-term energy futures of both countries.
Country or Region: United States
Lewis, Joanna I
Abstract
The state of the U.S.-China relationship on climate change has been changing rapidly in the wake of the Beijing presidential summit and the Copenhagen negotiations that took place in the final months of 2009. The bilateral talks on climate and energy issues between the two countries are critically important, not just for addressing climate change, but for the future of the U.S.-China relationship. Bilateral talks may also facilitate a multilateral agreement on climate change that involves both countries. Fundamental differences exist, however, between the United States and China in how they each view the bilateral relationship, and how they see their roles in the multilateral system; and these must be carefully navigated. There clearly can be no solution to global climate change without the United States and China, and such a solution will depend on the ability of these two countries to see eye to eye. It will take many years for them build the trust needed to overcome their differences on this issue, to develop and adopt low-carbon technologies, and to transform their economies. As the entire world looks to the United States and China to make a move, the fate of the global climate system remains in their hands.
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Wagener, Martin
Abstract
As the greatest military power in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. depends on the cooperation of its allies. In the past, Washington has had to recognize that support is not always forthcoming. Using the example of relations between the U.S. and Thailand, this article tries to establish how the reliability of an ally can be assessed. For this purpose, the options of military access for American forces are first analyzed. Subsequently, the actions of the kingdom are explained from a theoretical point of view: Is Bangkok following a policy of bandwagoning vis-à-vis Washington? Finally, against this background, the possible behaviour of Thailand during a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is discussed: How reliable will the American ally be when it counts?
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Chambers, Paul
Abstract
Three years ago, the United States and Thailand seemed headed for a more strained and distant relationship. U.S. policy-makers viewed Bangkok as increasingly insignificant while Thailand sought to move out of its traditional U.S. orbit and increasingly balance the influence of Washington with China, Europe, and the Muslim world. Yet, since 2001, the United States and Thailand have become extremely close. This article examines the U.S.-Thai relationship from the 1980s to the present day, particularly focusing on the post-9/11 era in light of the Bush administration’s war on terrorism and growing linkages between Thailand and the United States. Ultimately, the article analyses what has accounted for warmer ties, why some strains still remain, and whether U.S.-Thai relations have in fact returned to their previous 1980s intimacy.
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Chachavalpongpun, Pavin
Abstract
Thailand’s domestic political crisis that began in the final year of the Thaksin Shinawatra administration (2001–06), culminating in the military coup of September 2006 and continuing into the current period of the Democrat-led government under the leadership of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, has also influenced the country’s foreign policy, especially its relations with the great powers. The crisis has provided a platform for these powers — in this case, the United States and China — to compete with each other in order to preserve their strategic ties with Thailand at a time when the kingdom has been experiencing political turbulence. It is however necessary to see the role of Washington and Beijing in Thailand’s protracted crisis in the wider context of competition for influence and supremacy in Southeast Asia. This chapter examines the different approaches of the United States and China in dealing with the Thai crisis. It asks: Which approach is more effective to win influence in Thailand? It investigates the way in which the competition between the two great powers has come to influence Thailand’s foreign affairs. In the final section, the chapter briefly discusses the standing of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Thailand’s polarized politics and seeks to elucidate whether Thailand has been able to exploit its position in ASEAN to dilute the power of the United States and China over its domestic and foreign affairs
Brown, Frederick Z
Abstract
The improvement of bilateral relations between Vietnam and the United States has added a fresh dynamic to the geopolitics of Southeast Asia. This article discusses the laborious process of normalization of political relations between 1976 and 1995. It describes the course of economic normalization from the signing of the Bilateral Trade Agreement in 2001 and granting of Permanent Normal Trading Relations in 2006 to Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade Trade Organization in 2007. It reviews current bilateral economic and trade issues and analyses domestic political norms and historical experiences which have acted as powerful forces shaping the foreign policies of both countries. The United States criticizes Vietnam’s human rights record, and Vietnam has lingering qualms about alleged US designs for “regime change”. The Vietnamese-American community, now 1.8 million strong, and the US Congress are major players in the expansion of bilateral relations. The article discusses the heightened visibility of ASEAN in US policy and implications for regional security. The article notes other positive factors at work in US-Vietnam relations: 13,000 Vietnamese now study in the United States; the sensitive Agent Orange issue is being addressed seriously; and there is bilateral cooperation on global warming, the environment, human trafficking and the Mekong River basin. The article concludes that US-Vietnam rapprochement is on a positive, mutually beneficial track but that its dimensions and durability have yet to be established.
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Kenny, Henry J
Summary
Shadow of the Dragon examines the long historical cycle of tribute, domination, and independence that has shaped Sino-Vietnamese bilateral relations. After generations of bloody struggle for independence and a slow crawl toward prosperity, Vietnam has reached a crossroads. The Vietnamese can fall back into their historically predetermined fate of kowtowing to their large neighbor, China, or they can continue to stand alone, forging their own developmental path.
Henry Kenny outlines what role the United States can play in encouraging Vietnamese growth and prosperity while protecting U.S. interests and easing the Chinese hegemonic tendency without humiliating Beijing. The analysis addresses potential tinderboxes in the Con Son Basin, the Paracel and Spratly Islands, and the Gulf of Tonkin.
Manyin, Mark E
Summary
After communist North Vietnam’s victory over U.S.-backed South Vietnam in 1975, the United States and Vietnam had minimal relations until the mid-1990s. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1995, overlapping security and economic interests have led the two sides to expand relations across a wide range of sectors and begin to form a strategic partnership of sorts. Perhaps most prominently, in 2010, the two countries mobilized a multinational response to China’s perceived attempts to boost its claims to disputed waters and islands in the South China Sea. This coordinated effort has continued to the present day.
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Easley, Leif-Eric
Abstract
The middle powers literature often conflates role identity (national self-conception) of middle power states with role performance (foreign policies), while neglecting East Asia as a region of hypothesis generation and testing. Empirical studies of middle powers tend to consider European cases, Canada, Australia and South Africa, while research on contemporary East Asia international relations focuses on great powers or the development of regional institutions. This article contributes to the middle powers literature by comparing the post-Cold-War national identities and foreign policies of South Korea and Vietnam. A framework for analyzing national identity is applied to major sources of national self-conceptions in Seoul and Hanoi. The article examines how identity trajectories relate to change in South Korea and Vietnam’s geopolitical positioning between the United States and China, and assesses the prospects for middle power cooperation in East Asia.
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Bahgat, Gawdat G
Summary
The United States is the world’s largest oil consumer and importer. Here Gawdat Bahgat examines the nation’s growing dependence on fossil fuels–particularly oil–and the main challenges it faces in securing supplies from two energy-rich regions, the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea. He argues that long-term U.S. energy strategy must be built on diversity of both the fuel mix and the geographic origin of that fuel. It should include a broad combination of measures that would stimulate domestic production, provide incentives for conservation, promote clean technologies, and eliminate political barriers to world markets.
Bahgat also contends, however, that the goal should not be energy independence, but finding new ways of managing dependence on oil supplies from abroad. He maintains that despite increasing reservoirs of oil and natural gas throughout the world, including the Caspian Sea, the Persian Gulf will continue to be the main source of U.S. fossil fuel. Bahgat analyzes both recent and historical challenges to the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer and exporter, including the Arab-Israeli peace process. He also discusses the hostility between the United States and Iraq and the tense relationship between the United States and Iran, including such sensitive topics as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, as well as developments in the wake of September 11, 2001.
In his assessment of the underdeveloped Caspian Sea reservoir, Bahgat suggests that energy experts and policy makers have exaggerated the region’s potential, citing logistical, economic, and political obstacles that must be overcome before the region plays a major role in producing fossil fuels. These obstacles include domestic ethnic divisions, disputes over the legal status of the Caspian, disagreements over the most cost-effective transportation routes, and changes in the region in the aftermath of the war on terrorism.
Gawdat Bahgat, director of the Center of Middle Eastern Studies at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, is the author of The Gulf Monarchies: New Economic and Political Realities; The Future of the Gulf; and The Persian Gulf at the Dawn of the New Millennium.
Bahgat, Gawdat
Summary
Security of energy supply is a major concern for all modern societies, intensified by skyrocketing demand in India and China and increasing international competition over fossil fuel deposits, Energy Security: An Interdisciplinary Approach gives a comparative analysis from both consumers’ and producers’ perspectives. It uniquely combines economics, geology, international relations, business, history, public management and political science in one comprehensive volume, highlighting the vulnerabilities and need to move to more sustainable energy sources.
The author provides a number of useful case studies to demonstrate the theory, including perspectives from consuming regions such as the United States, the European Union, and China, and from exporting regions; the Middle East, Africa, Russia and the Caspian Sea.
Key features include:
– Coverage on theoretical and empirical frameworks so that readers are able to analyse concepts relevant to new laws and policies in energy security
– Up-to-date coverage on ‘green energy’, outlining research on the balance between meeting energy needs and avoiding environmental pollution
– An examination of the three most prominent international energy organizations; International Energy Agency, International Energy Forum, and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
– A full Glossary listing all the important terms used in the energy field
This study holds important information for policymakers, politicians, energy specialists, scientists and post-graduate and final year students of energy and international relations. With its clear written style, it will also appeal to professionals interested in international political economy and the future of global energy.
Salameh, Mamdouh G
Abstract
Two very powerful geopolitical factors will decisively determine whether the quest for Middle East oil (mainly Gulf oil) could enhance the global oil security or could lead to oil supply disruptions and also instability and conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. The two factors are the United States’ growing dependence on oil imports from the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region’s thirst for oil and the increasingly likely Chinese dependence on oil from the region. The Asia-Pacific countries are increasingly growing concerned about their ability to supply enough oil to fuel future economic growth. The region’s phenomenal economic growth up to July 1997 and its economic recovery since then, and its steadily rising energy needs lend urgency to the question of how the region would meet its considerable energy challenges. This paper will endeavour to analyze the impact of this growing dependence on Middle East oil, on global oil supplies, the price of oil and global oil security. It will argue that such dependence on a volatile region like the Middle East and the perception of scarcer energy resources in the Asia-Pacific region, have the potential to lead to conflict in both regions unless these issues are dealt with in geoeconomic rather than geostrategic terms. The paper will strongly express the view that potential conflicts can be resolved not by force but through markets and investment and also through the diversification of energy sources and the promotion of alternative energy development and use across the region.
Bagirov, Adil
Abstract
This article describes troubled US-Russian energy cooperation & its implications given the problem of global energy security. Attention is given to the Sakhalin Project I & its future & the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Noted too is China’s more pragmatic & flexible approach to international energy market expansion while Russia & the US remain mired in ideological disagreements.
Park, Hun-Bong
Abstract
The Korean peninsula is crucial to China’s political, economic and security interests because of a combination of geographic, historical, and political circumstances. China’s economic reforms and the end of the Cold War both provided new challenges and opportunities for Northeast Asian politics. This article describes China’s position on Korean unification and the U.S. military presence on the Korean peninsula. China officially supports Korean unification if it is achieved peacefully and orderly through the concerted efforts of the two Koreas. Openly supporting a peaceful unification of Korea in principle, Beijing clearly prefers the status quo on the peninsula. Beijing’s dominant interest is a peaceful and stable but divided Korean peninsula. Beijing has a strong sense of uncertainty over the future of the US-ROK military alliance, the political fate of the DPRK, and the fallout of Korean unification. China maintains an ambivalent stance regarding the stationing of US Forces Korea (USPK). China officially opposes the stationing of troops in foreign territory, but in recent years has acknowledged the stabilizing role of American troops’ presence in East Asia. After Korea’s unification, however, China does not recognize the need for a USFK presence.
Chang, Euikwan
Abstract
A peace regime in the Korean peninsula has been a largely unfamiliar issue among U.S. policy makers until recently. Remarks on a Korean peace regime have been very limited in frequency among U.S. policy makers and mostly made on superficial notions when publicly expressed. A recent rise in the U.S. concern with a peace regime in the peninsula originates primarily from a motivation to work out the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons. This paper is concerned with prime U.S. interests associated with the provision of a peace regime in the Korean peninsula. The U.S. has shown passivity with regard to a peace regime in the Korean peninsula, The U.S. seems to fear that a peace regime may work in a destructive way to the U.S. interests, undermining the hub-and -spoke system that has served for the last several decades to protect the U.S. interests in Northeast Asia. The U.S. begins to recognize the utility of a peace regime in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue, but is afraid of high uncertainty associated with such adjoining issues as the future presence of the U.S. forces in Korea and a prospect for the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Any proposal for a peace regime in the Korean peninsula that can secure the U.S. support should be able to meet the following conditions; it should contribute to the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue, the maintenance or expansion of the U.S. influence in the peninsula and Northeast Asia, and the procurement of future presence of the U.S. forces in Korea, Methodologically, a comprehensive approach will be able to deal most effectively with the complex nature of interconnectivity among the constituting issues of a peace regime. The importance of the U.S. role in successful implementation of a peace regime in the peninsula cannot be underestimated. And this explains why a proposal for a peace regime that keeps away from reflecting the U.S. interest is doomed to fail.
