Abstract
This paper explores the extent measures taken by the government of Thailand helped households cope with shocks caused by the 2009 recession. A counterfactual was created by: quantifying the effects of the shocks (to tourism and exports); applying a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier analysis to simulate the indirect and induced effects; and mapping the sectoral changes to household incomes using data from the Socio-economic Surveys. The effects of the stimulus package introduced in early 2009 were then superimposed on the effects of government spending. The shocks alone would have directly reduced labour income by 2.1 per cent, or by up to 7.8 per cent if indirect and induced effects were included. Government measures raised household incomes by about 0.9 per cent on average, offsetting the shocks to some extent. The measures especially helped poorer households. On average, those in the lowest decile and those living in rural areas gained.
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Abstract
Sound macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, plus quick and forceful fiscal policy responses contributed to Thailand’s and Indonesia’s economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This paper reviews the impacts of the recent global financial crisis on the Thai and Indonesian economies, and identifies the characteristics of the fiscal stimulus package in each economy and their implications to counter the negative impact of the global financial crisis.
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Summary
The 1990s saw a sea change in East Asian security concerns. The role of the ocean as a highway for trade and a location of vital resources became critical to the region’s economic growth. Protection of territorial waters, the Exclusive Economic Zones established under the UN Law of the Sea, and strategic lines of communication grew in importance. Soon, a significant change in the size and sophistication of many of the region’s naval forces began to occur as they acquired modern weapons platforms (ships and aircraft) and weapons systems. This study uses two approaches from quantitative arms race theory, the role of the armaments-tension spiral and that of enduring national rivalries, to examine the hard data on arms races in the region.
The changing balance of naval forces has been interpreted in two very different ways. One camp has viewed the development as a largely benign and justifiable modernization of naval forces for legitimate defense purposes. A second camp has warned of a naval arms race in East Asia that will spawn armed conflict. Both camps have often relied on anecdotal evidence and rhetoric. While the argument was muted by the 1997 economic crisis, many naval projects have continued to move forward. Meconis and Wallace address the meaning of East Asian naval weapons acquisitions in the 1990s in a more formal and serious manner than any previous attempts, and they propose measures that might prevent naval conflict.
Abstract
President Obama’s participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS) for a second consecutive year confirms the United States’ heightened attention to and engagement with Asia. Earlier, many Asian observers had doubted that a U.S. president could remain committed to attending the annual summit, particularly when the 2012 meeting was hosted by Cambodia, a relatively small country in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The fact that Obama kept his commitment to attend the EAS is evidence that the United States is stepping up its rebalancing efforts in Asia. This essay offers a perspective from Thailand—a traditional U.S. ally—on the motivations behind U.S. rebalancing, as well as on the policy’s implications for Thailand and Southeast Asia as a whole.
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Abstract
The consecutive and rapid economic growth needs a large amount of energy supply to fuel in the East Asia region. Although reaching some achievements, East Asia regional integration at a take-off phase changes little the situation of energy security in which there exists a more competitive than cooperative phenomenon in access to energy among major economies in the region. The current multilateral energy cooperation, in the framework of the Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN), cannot support sustainable growth in the region. So it is urgent for East Asian economies to set up an energy-specific community—the East Asian Energy Community (EAEC) to take uniform actions and effective cooperation on energy security. EAEC can be modeled respectively on European Union way especially in the East Asia Summit region, and on the Energy Charter Conference broadly in the Pan-Asia region including the Central Asia and the Middle East. It can be accomplished through such specific mechanism and institutional arrangements as follows: to sign a legally binding energy-specific treaty; to set up an Asian energy-specific fund to supply financial assistance for may-be losers in removing trade barriers and forming the energy market integration; to establish Asian Energy Cooperation Financing System based on the Asian Bond Markets Initiative approved by the ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea; to encourage related research on development, deployment and dissemination of technologies, to enhance energy efficiency and conservation through multilateral cooperation; to establish Asian Energy Information and Data System for both supply side and demand side to facilitate policy making; to take collective actions to ensure energy transport and transit through both land routes and waterways, and so on. Despite many challenges and indigenous restraints on the East Asia regional integration, EAEC learning from European Coal and Steel Community, European Atomic Energy Community, and mechanism of the Energy Community Treaty, is completely possible and attainable.
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Summary
In a world of continuing financial volatility, this book critically evaluates the oft-cited claim that US firms and the US government attempt to open emerging markets in economic distress and acquire valuable industrial and financial assets.
Focusing particularly on Korea and Thailand, the author examines the degree of market opening, the roles US actors played in this process and the level of foreign firm activity in the years after the Asian crisis. Justin Robertson finds surprisingly little coherence between the strategies of US firms and US policy-makers. At the same time, the book downplays European investments, concluding instead that the decade since the Asian crisis has reaffirmed strengths of US capital, particularly in some of the most important sectors of the global economy. Investment banking, private equity and subcontracting are significant new features of US-Asia economic relations.
Providing a sophisticated understanding of US interests in Asia, especially in terms of the politics of finance capital, and including a wealth of empirical data on the US and Asian political economies, this book will be invaluable for students and scholars of international political economy and Asian economics and politics.
Summary
The centre of global economic activity is shifting rapidly towards Asia, driven by the economic dynamism of China, India and several other middle-income Asian countries, combined with sluggish growth in the OECD economies. A range of major challenges arises from this rapid growth and rising global prominence, both for emerging Asia and for the rest of the world. This comprehensive and forward-looking book examines these issues through in-depth studies of six major Asian economies and an analysis of the key development policy options.
Abstract
This article examines the macro-economic policy response of the three Southeast Asian economies most adversely affected by the Asian financial crisis – Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia – to both the Asian and global financial crises. While the Asian financial crisis culminated in International Monetary Fund packages for Thailand and Indonesia, design flaws in these packages inflicted a large cost in terms of the severity and duration of recession in these economies. Malaysia, however, chose capital controls as a tool of crisis management. While there is no consensus on whether capital controls resulted in a better outcome for Malaysia, they were able to forestall urgent economic reforms and prolong the policies of the incumbent ruling party to the present time. All three economies responded to the global financial crisis with fiscal stimulus packages. The findings point to a rich diversity in both the size and composition of fiscal stimulus and the challenges confronted.
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Abstract
The automotive industries of Southeast Asia have grown significantly but unevenly. Thailand has outperformed its neighbours in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines with regard to production and, most notably, export volumes. But the Thai auto industry has not exhibited the level of local (indigenous) technology capacity and input growth seen in South Korea, Taiwan and, increasingly, in China. The 1997–98 and 2008 financial and economic crises generally reinforced pre-existing national automotive strategies, but to different degrees: They strongly accelerated an earlier Thai move to exports whose very success weakened pressures for upgrading; encouraged more moderate automotive liberalisation in Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, in the Philippines; but promoted only minimal changes to Malaysia’s relatively protectionist national car strategy. The fact that the crises served more to reinforce than to reverse existing tendencies reflects a broader set of political economy factors that influence national perceptions of crises severity and alternative responses.
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Summary
In this NBR Special Report, Catharin Dalpino (Simmons College) explores the evolution of the U.S.-Thailand alliance, discusses the strategic need to reinvigorate relations, and offers insight on how to modernize and strengthen cooperation between the United States and Thailand.
Although the U.S.-Thailand alliance made a successful transition out of the Cold War framework of the Vietnam War era to a more flexible arrangement, it has stagnated in recent years. This has been caused by domestic distractions on both sides, differences in threat perceptions, and the expansion of both countries’ political, economic, and security relations in the region.
Changes in the alliance, however, offer opportunities for new forms of cooperation. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have expanded U.S.-Thailand security cooperation beyond the Asia-Pacific region, while the proliferation of nontraditional security threats after the Cold War—including terrorism—has broadened the base of the alliance. Moreover, the expansion of Asian regional frameworks, most of them based on ASEAN structures, has given the U.S.-Thailand alliance a more regional orientation. Seizing these opportunities to strengthen relations will require more frequent dialogue between the U.S. and Thailand.
The report recommends six policy initiatives to revitalize the U.S.-Thailand alliance:
- Raise the profile of U.S.-Thai relations with frequent visits from senior leaders of both governments
- Establish a bilateral dialogue on China and the impact of rising powers in the Asia-Pacific region
- Support Thailand’s objective to reclaim a regional role in ASEAN
- Develop a regional hub for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief at the Thai military base in Utapao
- Expand, where appropriate, regional membership in Cobra Gold while maintaining a strong bilateral base in the exercise
- Identify mechanisms to expand and liberalize both bilateral and regional trade
Abstract
The UNEP/GEF project entitled “Reversing environmental degradation trends in the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand” implemented by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in partnership with seven riparian states bordering the South China Sea was initiated in 2002 and completed in 2008. The project was complex since it addressed three priority areas of concern identified in the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis namely the loss and degradation of coastal habitats, over-exploitation of fisheries, and land-based pollution. The fourth component of the project was concerned with regional co-ordination including facilitation of national level execution and securing inter-country agreement on project related matters. A number of lessons learnt from implementing the project include, inter alia: the need for a well designed management framework to ensure smooth co-ordination and information exchanges among and within participating countries; the importance of individuals in terms of the success or failure of Inter-Ministry Committees at the national level; separation of scientific and technical issues from political decision-making; the importance of the demonstration site network in encouraging cooperation at the local level; ownership of the project by participating countries; strong involvement of regional and national experts in implementing project tasks; linkages between habitat and fisheries management for developing a regional fisheries refugia network; sharing data through the development of regional databases; productive services of the project coordinating unit; and development of a framework for long-term cooperation in environment management.
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Summary
Nationalism appears to be rising in a renascent Asia and stoking tensions, aspirations, and identity politics while amplifying grievances and raising questions about prospects in what is touted as the Asian century. This book provides a broad overview and introduction to nationalism in Asia. Leading experts in their fields succinctly convey key information and critical analysis useful to students in a range of courses across disciplines.
Part I presents thematic chapters, mostly cross-national studies, that elucidate the roots and consequences of nationalism in these societies and the varying challenges they confront.
Part II presents concise country case studies in Asia, providing an overview of what is driving contemporary nationalism and surveys the domestic and international implications. Approaching Asia from the perspective of nationalism facilitates a comparative, interdisciplinary analysis that helps readers better understand each society and what the ramifications of nationalism are for contemporary Asians, and the worlds that they (and we) participate in.
Asian Nationalisms Reconsidered is an invaluable textbook for undergraduate courses and graduate seminars related to international relations, Asian Studies, political science, government, foreign policy, peace and conflict, and nationalism.
Abstract
Asian multilateralism has been a relatively recent development. It differs from that elsewhere and reflects the history and characteristics of the region. It has been important in the growth of regional cooperation, in developing common regional interests and in the development and adherence to norms. These characteristics contributed in responding in a constructive, if limited, way to the Asian economic crisis. Nevertheless, the crisis has revealed the weaknesses of existing regional multilateral institutions and those weaknesses are often seen as raising doubts about whether those institutions can be effective in the future without major reform. Yet, although the response of the regional institutions was clearly inadequate, the region’s response overall was far from negligible. Efforts to ensure regional coherence in the future by way of ASEAN, APEC and ASEAN+3 in particular are already being made to ensure greater stability in the financial sector. The region also wants to overcome its under representation in the global arena, but increased global participation, while positive, will remain supplementary to the global institutions, notably the IMF. Greater global involvement would provide, however, a more appropriate balance between regional and global contributions to future crises, since they will need to be better tailored to regional conditions and therefore depend on greater regional involvement from the start.
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Abstract
he Asia-Pacific region is home to a large and rapidly growing number of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). These agreements differ widely in design, scope and purpose. The “noodle bowl” that has resulted runs the risk of distorting investment and trade. Neither global institutions (the WTO) nor regional institutions such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping have successfully addressed these issues. Amidst this increasingly messy situation, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement stands out for a range of important economic and political reasons, not least of which is its potential to take existing PTAs in the Asia-Pacific region in a new direction. The aim of the TPP negotiators is to produce a comprehensive, high quality, multi-party agreement to tame the tangle of PTAs and be a potential stepping stone to achieving the goal of liberalizing regional trade on a non-discriminatory basis. The economic gains from removing border barriers among the countries involved in the initial TPP negotiations are likely to be limited, however, given the small size of many of the economies and the existing PTAs among them. To date, the US has been unwilling to offer a single set of arrangements for all TPP partners, preferring to build on existing bilateral agreements. Pessimism about the immediate results from the TPP should be tempered, however, by considerations of the dynamics that it might set in train; on the other hand, it has the potential to divide the region and exacerbate China’s concerns about “containment”.
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