Summary
Does the proliferation of nuclear weapons cause ongoing conflicts to diminish or to intensify? The spread of nuclear weapons to South Asia offers an opportunity to investigate this crucial question. Optimistic scholars argue that by threatening to raise the cost of war astronomically, nuclear weapons make armed conflict in South Asia extremely unlikely. Pessimistic scholars maintain that nuclear weapons make the subcontinent war-prone, because of technological, political, and organizational problems. This book argues that nuclear weapons have destabilized the subcontinent, principally because of their interaction with India and Pakistan’s territorial preferences and relative military capabilities. These findings challenge both optimistic and pessimistic conventional wisdom and have implications beyond South Asia.
Country or Region: Pakistan
Hoodbhoy, Pervez., ed
Abstract
Authored by scientists from both sides of the Pakistan-India divide, ‘Confronting the Bomb’ fearlessly explores tabooed, but urgent, nuclear issues. Concerned citizens, policy makers, and nuclear experts are presented with a rich range of complexities, political and semi-technical. Beginning with the coming of the atomic age to India, and later to Pakistan, the book looks at the furious nuclear racing after the 1998 nuclear tests. What are the principal drivers and where lies the future? It goes on to examine Pakistan’s changing strategic nuclear objectives, the Kargil conflict, and the fact that ownership of the bomb is now claimed by Islamic political parties. The worrying issue of the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is considered in the background of an ideological divide within the military. The somewhat more technical articles deal with early warning issues, the battlefield use of nuclear weapons, problems related to the fissile materials treaty, and the likely effects of a limited nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India. Two essays deal with nuclear electricity generation, making the point that this may not be the promised panacea for the subcontinent’s energy problem. Rejecting nuclear nationalism, this is a unique work by Pakistanis and Indians working together to warn of nuclear dangers.
Guha, S. B.
Cheema, Pervaiz Iqbal, and Imtiaz H. Bokhari
Ogilvie-White, Tanya, and David Santoro, eds.
Summary
From the publisher: In recent decades the debate on nuclear weapons has focused overwhelmingly on proliferation and nonproliferation dynamics. In a series of Wall Street Journal articles, however, George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn called on governments to rid the world of nuclear weapons, helping to put disarmament back into international security discussions. More recently, U.S. president Barack Obama, prominent U.S. congressional members of both political parties, and a number of influential foreign leaders have espoused the idea of a world free of nuclear weapons.
Turning this vision into reality requires an understanding of the forces driving disarmament forward and those holding it back. Slaying the Nuclear Dragon provides in-depth, objective analysis of current nuclear disarmament dynamics. Examining the political, state-level factors that drive and stall progress, contributors highlight the challenges and opportunities faced by proponents of disarmament. These essays show that although conditions are favorable for significant reductions, numerous hurdles still exist. Contributors look at three categories of states: those that generate momentum for disarmament; those with policies that are problematic for disarmament; and those that actively hinder progress—whether openly, secretly, deliberately, or inadvertently.
Lavoy, Peter, ed
Summary
Chapters on Pakistan, Taiwan, and South Korea. From the publisher: The intensification of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises has created new fears that deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and other regions will lead additional countries to seek their own nuclear arsenals in the years to come. This special issue examines the factors that are likely to shape nuclear weapons proliferation over the next decade. The internationally recognized authors of this issue, many of whom are prominent scholars and others of whom have held influential governmental positions with responsibility for countering nuclear proliferation, bring to light the conditions and events that might drive new countries to pursue nuclear weapons; the indicators and cautionary signs that can provide early warning that a country is interested in building nuclear bombs; and the policy and military measures that can be adopted to prevent or at least dissuade new proliferators. The introductory chapter develops a novel analytical approach focusing on the role of nuclear myths and mythmakers and the subsequent chapters draw on this approach to help analysts better understand and policy makers better manage nuclear proliferation over the next ten years.
Basrur, Rajesh M. and Cohen, Stephen Philip
Abstract
This book considers the nuclear futures of India and Pakistan, respectively. Noting the multiplicity of actors affecting India’s future nuclear posture, Basrur and Cohen propose three basic scenarios and then consider how variations in ten of the most important factors – including India’s relations with Pakistan and China, the role of the United States, and the number and types of nuclear weapons – could shape which of the three ideal-type scenarios India will most closely approximate.
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