Abstract: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of other countries’ foreign policies towards Taiwan.
Description: The issue of Taiwan is the single most difficult factor in the relationship between China and the United States. Any cross-straits conflict between China and Taiwan is likely not only to pit the world’s two leading powers against each other, but also to suck in many other countries. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of other countries’ foreign policies towards Taiwan. It considers the position of the United States and key regional powers including Japan and South and North Korea, examines the attitude of Russia and other countries which support China on this issue, and discusses the surprising policies of some smaller countries, which have recognised Taiwan’s independence. The book also relates the overall picture to various international relations theories.
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Publication Year: 2018
Offshore Archipelagos Enclosed by Straight Baselines: An Excessive Claim?
Abstract: This article examines the conclusion in the decision of the Arbitral Tribunal in the South China Sea Case that straight baselines may not be used to enclose off-shore archipelagos unless they meet the criteria set out in Articles 46 and 47 of the Law of the Sea Convention.
[Article 7 of UNCLOS relates to the use of straight baselines in delineating maritime territory. Article 46 of UNCLOS defines “archipelago” and “archipelagic State.” Article 47 of UNCLOS relates to the use of archipelagic baselines in delineating maritime territory. – RPI]
Publication Year: 2018
The Expansion of and Changes to the National Coast Guards in East Asia
Abstract: East Asian countries have vigorously engaged in a buildup of the capabilities of their coast guards. This has been driven in part by the need to protect their maritime jurisdiction in the face of numerous maritime disputes. The coast guards in East Asia serve as the front-line defender of sovereignty and maritime claims.
Abstract: The security of Japan’s maritime borders is a top priority for the country’s government. The roles of the Japan Coast Guard and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force are paramount in these security operations as Japan navigates an international landscape in the East China Sea complicated by an emboldened China. Full text available here.
Publication Year: 2019
Origins of a “Ragged Edge”—U.S. Ambiguity on the Senkakus’ Sovereignty
Abstract: In 1972, Japan regained administrative control of the Senkaku Islands following years of negotiations with the United States after World War II. However, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China already had made claims to these islands. The United States chose not to weigh in on the Senkakus’ sovereignty, leading to the tensions that have resurfaced today as the PRC asserts its dominance in the East China Sea and beyond.
Abstract: China’s unprecedented economic rise and its growing military profile have transformed the threat matrix for India. China is challenging India’s interests in its immediate neighbourhood in multiple ways. Managing strategic challenge from China, therefore, has become a topmost foreign policy priority for India. The article argues that given the structural constraints of New Delhi-Beijing rapprochement, there is an urgent need for India to step up quadrilateral security cooperation with the U.S., Japan and Australia. The revival of the Quad reflects this growing consensus. However, India’s hedging approach – simultaneously balancing and engaging with China – may be politically expedient in the short run, but not without long-term adverse consequences. Full text available here.
Abstract: India–Japan security cooperation is a critical component in the evolving security mechanism of the Indo-Pacific region. Both states are secondary states in the international system that opposes one country’s emergence as a regional hegemon. China’s rise and her ambition to dominate the Indo-Pacific would affect the security interests of India and Japan. The U.S., the current preponderant power in the region, seems unable to contain China by itself. So it is looking for strategic partnerships with regional countries who are militarily capable of challenging China, and persuading them to balance China. In this regard, the two powerful states in China’s own backyard – Japan in the western Pacific and India in the Indian Ocean – have come together to counter the Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. In this effort, they have gradually built up naval cooperation sans a formal military alliance. They follow soft balancing strategies over hard balancing ones because neither wants to antagonise China. Similarly both countries seek to expand their presence through mutual cooperation beyond South-east Asia. This article explains the nature and context of soft power balancing strategies and the manner in which the India–Japan maritime security cooperation has evolved over the last two decades. Full text available here.
Abstract: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, hereinafter referred to as Quad), which had come into existence in 2007, ceased following the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the withdrawal of Australia during Kevin Rudd’s tenure as Prime Minister. However, on the side lines of the 2017 ASEAN Summit, the subject of a structure that would facilitate peace, stability and development in the Indo-Pacific region which, is supposedly under threat due to China’s assertive behaviour, came up for discussions once again between leaders of US, Japan, Australia and India. The revival of the Quad (colloquially termed as “Quad 2.0”), after a hiatus of nearly a decade was viewed with concern by the Chinese media, which termed the grouping as a possible first step towards the formation of an “Asian NATO”. The Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, however was more dismissive, comparing the idea of reviving the Quad to “foam in the ocean, destined to dissipate soon”. Against the backdrop of a globalised and intertwined economy, where economic interdependence appears to be the norm in deciding national interests, this paper examines the likely future trajectory of this grouping and attempts to determine which of the two assessments is more plausible. Full text available here.
Abstract: India, China and Japan, the economic big three in Asia, is heavily dependent on maritime trade in terms of importation of energy and other natural resources in addition to import/export of manufactured products. Major economic, political and security impact has been resulted from such a dependence, as the sea-lines of communication for maritime trade across the Indian Ocean and West Pacific is vulnerable to heavy conventional/unconventional threat. Policy measures have been taken in order to mitigate the vulnerabilities. Accelerated development of maritime powers, bilateralism/multilateralism, enhanced engagement with regional players and diversification policies are among such effort. The unconventional challenges are on the decline, partly thanks to effective counter-measures, while the conventional challenges is on the rise, also partly due to the mis-match of policies from major stakeholders. The Rise of Indo-Pacific Concept and the Emerging Maritime Regionalism can be a double-edge sword. Clarification of strategic intention and effective policy dialogue is needed for a more harmonious maritime engagement among the three. Strategic vision and smart policies are needed to ensure a cooperation for the benefit of all stakeholder inclusive of the three countries in particular. Full text available here.
Abstract: Asia’s share of global demand for natural gas has increased from 12 to 21 per cent since the turn of the century, and the overall consumption has more than doubled. At the same time, there is a widening gap between regional natural gas demand and supply, with increasing reliance on imports. In 2017, Asian importers absorbed 72 per cent of globally traded liquefied natural gas (LNG). Their LNG import dependence is forecast to grow significantly over the coming decades. This paper explores major Asian importers’ approaches to LNG import diversification between 2001 and 2017 and explains why patterns of LNG imports differ across countries and over time. The focus of the paper is on five largest LNG importers in the region: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The paper utilises the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index (HHI) of market concentration to evaluate LNG import diversification across the five countries. The analysis contributes to a growing body of literature that evaluates various aspects of energy import diversification in the context of broader energy security strategies. Findings suggest that all countries have improved their LNG import portfolios, although there is significant temporal variation across countries. Reflecting on the relationship between energy security and growth, the paper concludes by outlining policy implications for regional energy policymakers. Full text available here.
Abstract: East Asian countries, such as China, Japan and South Korea, are major importers in the international oil market. Therefore, oil import security is critical to sustainable economic development in these countries. This paper uses a modified two-stage DEA-like model to investigate the impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on oil import security in the East Asian region over time. Specifically, three dimensional variables were introduced to the model: the OPEC internal dimension, the OPEC and Asian country interaction dimension, and the international external dimension. The empirical results show a substantial difference between China and the other two countries in terms of these dimensions. Although the impact of OPEC on China’s oil security has increased over time, its impact on Japan has declined. Political uncertainty in OPEC countries and oil price volatility are the major issues for China, whereas cost is the key area of concern for Japan. South Korea’s concerns are less clear. The results of this study lay an important foundation for discussing policy issues involved in regional cooperation, integration and sustainable growth in the East Asian region. Full text available here.
Abstract: In this study, we collected Japanese nuclear power plant construction cost data from official documents submitted by the electric utilities and conducted a quantitative analysis of the past trends. We found that the unit construction cost of Japanese nuclear power plants rose during the period from 1975 to 1980, when the “improvement and standardization” programs took place, and did not increase or decline significantly after that. We also observed significant economies of scale, even if we take into account interest during construction, as well as the so-called overnight cost. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to analyze the total history of Japan’s nuclear power generation until the Fukushima accident from the cost perspective. The findings could contribute to a better understanding of the economics of nuclear power, as similar studies in the United States and France tend to exhibit different results. The analyses in this study appear to reinforce the reliability of the cost estimation by the Japanese government, which has been used as the numerical basis for the current energy policies in Japan. Full text available here.
Description: In recent years the narrative surrounding China’s “peaceful rise” has given way to a more ominous story of friction, ambition, and great-power rivalry. As Chinese foreign policy has grown more nationalist and assertive, its intensifying competition with the U.S. has assumed center stage. The impact on China’s neighbors, by contrast, and their evolving responses, have received comparatively less attention.
The Realist theory of international relations suggests the rapid accumulation of power by one nation-state will prompt its neighbors and peers to adopt Balancing strategies. They will strive to enhance their internal defense capabilities and forge new external security partnerships to hedge against this potential new threat. Have these predictions rung true? Are key Indo-Pacific capitals Balancing, and drawing closer to the U.S. as insurance against Chinese aggression? Or is China a new breed of rising power, challenging traditional theories of international relations in a newly-globalized, economically interdependent world?
Description: In the sphere of future global politics, no region will be as hotly contested as the Asia-Pacific, where great power interests collide amid the mistrust of unresolved conflicts and disputed territory. This is where authoritarian China is trying to rewrite international law and challenge the democratic values of the United States and its allies. The lightning rods of conflict are remote reefs and islands from which China has created military bases in the 1.5-million-square-mile expanse of the South China Sea, a crucial world trading route that this rising world power now claims as its own. No other Asian country can take on China alone. They look for protection from the United States, although it, too, may be ill-equipped for the job at hand. If China does get away with seizing and militarizing waters here, what will it do elsewhere in the world, and who will be able to stop it? In Asian Waters, award-winning foreign correspondent Humphrey Hawksley breaks down the politics—and tensions—that he has followed through this region for years. Reporting on decades of political developments, he has witnessed China’s rise to become one of the world’s most wealthy and militarized countries, and delivers in Asian Waters the compelling narrative of this most volatile region. Can the United States and China handle the changing balance of power peacefully? Do Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan share enough common purpose to create a NATO-esque multilateral alliance? Does China think it can even become a superpower while making an enemy of America? If so, how does it plan to achieve it? Asian Waters delves into these topics and more as Hawksley presents the most comprehensive and accessible analysis ever of this region.
Description: In this article, Satake examines the competing interpretations of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) concept first introduced by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016. The author argues that FOIP is best understood as a “regional order-building strategy,” and outlines three aspects of the concept as such: creating a stable power balance; promoting regional resilience, development, and connectivity; and rule-making and norm-setting. The article then focuses on the implication of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific policy in Japan’s relations with ASEAN. Full text available here.
