Publication Year: 2019
India’s Persian desire – analysing India’s maritime trade strategy vis-à-vis the Port of Chabahar
Abstract: Since the turn of the century, India has seen itself as the dominant maritime power in South Asia and has aspired to project this power across the Indian Ocean Region. The principle of a “net security provider” has, thus far, been most applicable in South Asia and around its littorals, but it is West Asia that will really test India’s diplomatic and maritime capabilities over the course of the coming years. West Asia has a complex structure of diplomatic and strategic intricacies, that India has to manoeuvre through, in order to achieve its interests. Adding to this, India has had to adopt a careful balancing act juggling its West Asian interests with those that it has elsewhere. The roles of trade, strategy, and ideology have never been as intertwined as they are in the contemporary age, and this region and the challenges it poses is the most complex weave India that is likely to face as it pushes forward into a new age of international relations. This paper addresses the bilateral realities of India and Iran in the context of India’s maritime strategy, and the geostrategies of other regional players such as China and Pakistan. Full text available here.
Abstract: The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets suitable for uncertain judgments that integrates Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and the Cumulative Belief Degree (CBD) methods. CBD, which is strengthened by IFAHP in determining criteria weights, allows experts to freely evaluate alternatives in various formats and can successfully deal with missing judgments by experts in case of doubt, eligibility or lack of information. Scenario planning is also incorporated into the decision-making process by determining four realistic projections. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to analyze Iran’s energy export security. Results suggest that natural gas has the highest export priority while petroleum products (excluding gasoline) stand last in all scenarios. Full text available here.
Preview: Today, with the international drive to reduce fossil‐fuel consumption and increase the possibilities of sustainable development, the use of new and renewable fuel is being explored with vigor. Considering the potential for renewable energy in Iran, the development of these valuable resources is justified to achieve sustainable development goals: economic growth, social welfare, the improvement of quality of life, and the security of society. Iran holds the world’s second‐largest reserves of natural gas and the fourth‐largest of oil, as well as great potential for renewable energy. Before the onset of U.S. and EU sanctions, renewables played a less important role in Iran’s national energy basket, but over the last few decades, the government has planned to decrease its dependency on oil. Full text available here.
Abstract: Iran’s coalition with the states and political organizations in the Middle East that are either Shia or act to counter the West and its regional allies is a consequence of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s emotionally constructed identity. The empathy Iran has for the Shia resulting from the pain they have collectively suffered throughout history explains Iran’s support for the Shia elements in Lebanon and Iraq. With the same logic, assistance Iran gives to Syria and the Palestinian organizations fighting Israel and sanctioned by the West are out of resentment against some Western powers embedded in Iran’s identity shaped by a history of disrespect Iranians have seen from some Western powers, particularly Britain and the United States. Full text available here.
Abstract: Non-alignment, the lodestar of India’s foreign policy decision-making, has gradually morphed into multi-alignment. Irrespective of the change in nomenclature, the point then and now is essentially about making the most of the prevalent nature of global geopolitics for the protection and promotion of India’s national interest. The difference could be that non-alignment guided India’s way in a bipolar world; multi-alignment is meant to guide India’s Rise in a multi-polar world. Multi-polarity is seen by many as more benign than a bipolar or a unipolar world. Many countries, including India, are seen pronouncing that their interest will be better served in a multipolar world order, and India’s foreign policy is often projected as pursuing suchan order. Bipolarity is usually condemned as world of military blocs, which had elicited the Non-aligned policy from India. Uni-polarity has, in any case,never been seen as a natural order or in the interest of countries like India.Thus, this has left multi-polarity as the preferred choice. Indeed, multi-polarity comes across as a configuration, which gives the space for more power centres in the international system to pursue their interests. It seems to allow more choices of aligning with different actors as per the strategic calculations of a particular country. Full text available here.
Abstract: This research examines the international relations between North Korea (the
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) and Iran in the context of their
shared perception of a threat from the United States. We discuss the conventional
idea of the international relationship—the enemy of my enemy is my ally—to
explain Pyongyang–Tehran relations, evaluate its past and current relations, and
offer policy suggestions for the recent denuclearization approach toward North
Korea and Iran. Using newly discovered archival resources and political records, we
challenge the conventional idea that the two states share the same threat perception
in a consistent manner and suggest the level of their military cooperation changes
depending on the approach from Washington and the international community. This
research provides a more exact picture of the international relations North Korea
and Iran since the 1980s and of the link between their shared threat perception and
denuclearization debates. Full text available here.
Abstract: Iran is one of the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). What effects will the realization of the BRI have on the geo economical and geopolitical status of Iran? On the one hand, this project can boost China’s presence and influence in the political economy of Iran and its neighborhood, and create new domains of competition between Iran and China. On the other hand, it could contribute to the revival of Iran’s historical role in the ancient Silk Road. Thus, to participate in this project, Iran is stuck between hope and fear. It is fearful for Iran because it has negative effects on Iranian interests, at the same time Iran is hopeful because it can enhance its economic development and raise its historical role as a bridge between the East and the West.
As a result, Iran tries at the same time to develop its relationships with the EU as well as cooperation with China in the framework of the BRI. Iran tries to maximize its interests from the project and reduce its negative effects on its geo economic and geopolitical interests. Maintaining this fragile balance could face Iran ’s active participation in the project with substantial challenges.
Full text available here.
Abstract: Iran is expected to be one of the main beneficiaries of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China and Iran had a track record of cooperation long before the announcement of BRI, developing a highly asymmetric Great Power-Middle Power partnership over the course of three decades. This article asks whether BRI will enable China and Iran to transcend the limitations faced by most Great Power-Middle Power relationships on the basis of Iran’s enhanced strategic economic and geographic value. It is argued that while BRI could benefit from stronger China–Iran ties, Iran’s international posturing has proven a significant hindrance to China, highlighting that entrenched patterns of engagement in Great Power-Middle Power relations are not easily shifted, even in the face of immense economic incentives. Full text available here.
Abstract: Since Donald Trump has come into office as president of the United States, the US foreign policy toward Iran has undergone major changes, which has been prominently manifested in such actions as endorsing hardline advocates who are against Iran to important political offices, withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and imposing high economic, political and military pressure on Iran. The introduction of such policies toward Iran by the Trump administration has not only been brought about by Trump himself, but also influenced by the domestic political environment of the United States. Moreover, it is also closely related to the current changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The Iran policy of the Trump administration will likely have multiple impacts, such as giving rise to political instability within Iran, worsening regional security,impacting the international non-proliferation regime, widening the disparity between the US and Europe, and even increasing the possibility of a military conflict breaking out between the US and Iran. Full text available here.
Abstract: The appearance of nuclear weapons has posed unprecedented threats of war to mankind. With joint efforts of the international community, a series of international norms and arrangements have been gradually established, mainly involving nuclear disarmament and nuclear arms control, prohibition of the use of nuclear weapons, as well as non-proliferation of nuclear arms ,effectively influencing nuclear activities among sovereign states, warding off the outbreak of nuclear war, and limiting the number of nuclear states. Since the beginning of the 21st century ,the international strategic environment has undergone major changes. Mankind has entered a new age when nuclear and missile technologies have been proliferated in an accelerated way, with Iran’ s nuclear capability steadily growing, the DPRK obtaining nuclear weapons by successfully breaching the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, and non-state actors becoming the major subjects to proliferate nuclear technology and nuclear materials. Since coming into office, Trump has thoroughly negated the policy proposition of a nuclear-free world advocated by Obama, insisting on building a powerful missile defense system, developing new forms of strategic weapons, producing low-yield nuclear warheads, and withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement. Trump’ s policy adjustment has much weakened the nuclear taboo and the nuclear non-proliferation regime, and has initiated a new round in the race toward cutting edge nuclear weapons technology, thus undermining strategic stability among major powers, all highlighting historic limitations of the international nuclear order. Full text available here.
Abstract: The so-called Iran nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive plan of Action, is an agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council as well as Germany and the EU to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. Praised as an historic diplomatic achievement that resolved a decade-long crisis, the 2015 agreement is distinctive in its comprehensive provisions and innovative solutions to various legal and technical issues. However, US President Donald Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw the US from the agreement in May 2018 has put its future in peril. This paper attempts to analyze the legal aspects of the US’ decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement with special reference to the currently on-going US-North Korea deal for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In the course of this study, special attention is given to the lessons learned from the Iran nuclear agreement.
Abstract: Historically, India’s policy on Iran has been a balancing act between securing its interests as a counterweight to Pakistan, and ensuring its continued partnership with the US and other regional players. Yet confusion in India’s Iran policy became evident when Iran’s nuclear program began to draw international attention in the 1990s. More recently, India has attempted to reach out to Iran, reigniting trade relations and initiating new plans. Growing Indo- Iran relations are however a worrying sign for Islamabad, which is attempting a simultaneous expansion of ties with Tehran while continuing to resolve outstanding disputes. The central argument of this paper is that India’s relations with Iran are best understood through the prism of the intertwining of geo-economic and geopolitical considerations. Analysis has often separated these two factors, but there is evidence that a synergy exists — and that it is particularly visible when the Pakistani element is introduced. Often emphasising historical and cultural affinity, India and Pakistan have each sought politically and economically viable relations with Iran. Yet their bilateral political calculations and the current economic challenges have prompted a nuanced policy based on a careful balancing of geo-economics and geopolitics.
Abstract: This article examines the India-U.S. strategic partnership and argues that the Iran factor is not as big an impediment to the bilateral relationship as is often assumed.
Preview: After the popular overthrow of the U.S.-backed Shah in 1979, the United States and Iran formed one of the most hostile relationships of any two countries not at war in the modern era. The roots of their tensions derive from a complex set of issues having in part to do with history, conflicting ideologies, and regional as well as global geopolitics. The outcome has been decades of minimal dialogue coupled with a regular exchange of insults and accusations, warping not only their respective public opinions and politics, but also the geostrategic landscape from the Levant to the Persian Gulf and beyond. However, while the U.S.–Iran rivalry has not served to ease regional fires and the spread of instability, cooperation between them may do so, given America’s position as a major global power and Iran’s as a major regional power. The greatest evidence for the possibility of such a change in the U.S.–Iran relationship occurred from 2013–2016, when both sides pursued diplomatic engagement to resolve the Iranian nuclear dispute.
Abstract: The Trump administration should continue to waive nuclear-related sanctions, lift the travel ban and support Iranian domestic freedoms.
