Publication Year: 2022
US-China Strategic Competition and Converging Middle Power Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2022.2088126
Abstract: The 21st century’s central economic nexus will be centred on the Indo-Pacific region. Simultaneously, the intensifying US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific is deepening. Regional middle powers must negotiate this competition to ensure their interests remain intact. This article applies a realist framework to analyse the strategic alignment of Australia, Japan, and India in response to the great power competition. It examines the strategy each middle power is pursuing to protect their interests and the motivations behind their approaches. It finds a convergence in middle power interests centred on maritime behaviour, adherence to international law, and investment in regional institutions.
Publication Year: 2022
New champions of preferential trade? Two-level games in China’s and India’s shifting commercial strategies
DOI: 10.1080/09692290.2022.2060278
Abstract: Following decades of relative isolation, China and India have become the world’s largest new traders. In this paper, we focus on their Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). While the two economies initially followed similar paths, with a growing number of PTAs signed in the first decade of the 21st Century, since 2011 India has taken a U-turn and stopped completing them. China, on the other hand, has widened and deepened its trade agreements. We present a novel theoretical framework to analyze international economic negotiations by emerging economies and use it to study the puzzling divergence of the trade policies of China and India. By adapting the two-level game framework to emerging economies, we argue that there are key differences in the political economies of countries like China and India (compared to Western industrialized ones), which requires a more specific focus on the domestic side of the two-level game. We show that accounting for non-legislative domestic ratification processes and for iterative games and experiential learning by domestic actors are crucial in understanding the trade strategies of emerging economies. While much of the literature explains large emerging economies by looking at external systemic factors, we instead suggest that their domestic politics trumps international politics.
Publication Year: 2022
India’s maritime diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Exploring synergies
DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2021.2018827
Abstract: India–Southeast Asia defence cooperation has not been highlighted much, primarily to not give out wrong signals about India’s power projection outlook. With India steadfastly maintaining that it is a benign nation and not a revisionist power, engagement in the defence domain with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been attempted in five ways. The first includes India’s engagement in ASEAN defence mechanisms, such as ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Plus; and the participation of ASEAN nations in the Milan series of biennial meetings and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). The second dimension is India’s legitimate interest in the security of the Malacca Strait as a funnel state. The third dimension is developing synergies between the defence industries in Southeast Asia with the Indian defence industrial complex. The fourth angle of engagement is India’s position as the net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The fifth critical aspect is developing maritime cooperative mechanism and developing a counter to the Chinese “string of pearls” strategy.
Publication Year: 2022
Managing China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific: Japan’s strategic engagement with India
DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2021.2015135
Abstract: The article explains how Japan’s strategic interests are converging with India against an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific. Japan has been pursuing a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) policy, which seeks to manage China’s rise by deepening Japan’s strategic coordination and cooperation with its closest partners through the Quad. Though Japan still values its bilateral relationship with the United States (US), its security partnership with India is part of Tokyo’s persistent efforts to support the US-led rules-based international order. In order to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan has been a strong supporter among the Quad to promote non-military cooperation, primarily focusing on infrastructure building, supply chain resilience and technological innovations. The article argues that Japan’s strategic engagement with India is now an integral part of its wider national security posture as Tokyo has come to recognise New Delhi as an important balancer against Beijing. That the US has enhanced its ties with India in recent years has further facilitated Japan–India strategic convergence since it is aligned with American policy towards the Indo-Pacific region in an era of great power competition.
Publication Year: 2021
Middle power hedging in the era of security/economic disconnect: Australia, Japan, and the ‘Special Strategic Partnership’
DOI: 10.1093/irap/lcab023
Abstract: Deepening superpower rivalry between the United States and China has created acute strategic dilemmas for secondary powers in the Indo-Pacific such as Australia and Japan. This predicament is exacerbated by their divergent security and economic interests which cut across the superpower divide; a condition dubbed a ‘security/economic disconnect’. These two intimately related dynamics preclude clear-cut implementation of conventional balancing/bandwagoning alignment choices and have led to mixed hedging strategies to cope with this situation. To address these issues, the article presents a refinement of the hedging concept in International Relations (IR) that emphasizes its multi-dimensional nature, within a broader interpretation of alignment itself. It applies this to the case of the Australia and Japan with reference to their Strategic Partnership, which is both emblematic of hedging responses to systemic uncertainty, and an institutional mechanism through which to operationalize joint hedging policies. This provides insights into how middle power strategic partnerships are managing strategic risks across the security, economic, and other, domains.
Publication Year: 2021
Balancing China: Indo-US relations and convergence of their interests in the Indo-Pacific
DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2021.1952618
Abstract: The Indo-Pacific has emerged as an important region in international politics where the major powers are deeply engaged in reshaping the security architecture. Over the last few years, India and China have drawn their policies by employing competitive strategies that strengthen as well as neutralise their respective power positions in the Indian Ocean Region, particularly in South Asia and the South China Sea. China’s “String of Pearls” strategy and the “Belt and Road Initiative” undermine India’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region, where the changing geo-economic and geostrategic imperatives pose threat to its interests. This mounts pressure on New Delhi to respond by pursuing counter-strategies to secure its interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The article further explains how India and the United States’ interests are converging against an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific and how the two states’ security and maritime collaborations are balancing their common rival by maintaining a favourable status quo in the region.
Publication Year: 2021
India, Russia and the Indo-Pacific: A Search for Congruence
Abstract: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent uncharacteristic statement of “India being an object of the Western countries persistent, aggressive and devious policy” to “engage in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies” has reignited the debate on India and Russia’s increasingly divergent outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Lavrov at the 2020 Raisinia Dialogue had expressed confidence of India “being smart enough to understand” the Western “trap” of the Indo-Pacific and “not get into it”.
The tone, tenor and timing of Lavrov’s December 2020 statement insinuates Russia’s apprehensions of a fundamental shift in India’s foreign policy playbook which traditionally has placed a premium on strategic autonomy, with Russia as one of its key pillars.
These developments have the potential to cast a shadow on India-Russia bilateral ties. The pertinent question is whether New Delhi and Moscow can find common ground in the evolving geo-strategic construct.
Publication Year: 2020
Why Quasi-Alliances Will Persist in the Indo-Pacific? The Fall and Rise of the Quad
DOI: 10.1177/2347797020962620
Abstract: The rise of and increasing assertiveness by China presents a significant structural challenge in the Indo-Pacific region (IPR). In an effort to retain the status quo, a number of states have signed-up to the ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP). In support of FOIP, operational mechanisms have emerged—most importantly the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). The United States, Japan, Australia and India have come together in this informal format to exchange views on current security challenges and coordinate their strategic approaches. This article analyses both form and function of Quad and argues that both the diplomatic and military arrangements between Quad members are a direct response to ever-increasing Chinese assertiveness. Alongside a detailed empirical analysis of Quad, this paper addresses the question why Quad 2.0 will thrive although previous attempts at security networks failed. Balance of threat theory will illuminate why informal quasi-alliances vis-à-vis China are going to be the structural new normal for the IPR.
Publication Year: 2020
Sino-US Disorder: Power and Policy in Post-COVID Indo-Pacific
DOI: 10.1177/2631684620940448
Abstract: Great powers have invested in order-building projects with competing vision of political values and ideologies. How the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic shapes the balance of power and order are debated. The pandemic arrived in the midst of Sino-US strategic contestation, a crumbling European project, de-globalisation and contested economic governance architecture. While the pandemic exacerbated Washington abdicating leadership role, Beijing also has alienated itself from the followers of rules based order. It has sharpened the clash of rhetoric, narratives, and perceptions. The pandemic will reorganise the international system and power structures. Situating the Indo-Pacific project in this backdrop, this article critically analyses the debates, discourses and nuanced divergences that are shaping the Indo-Pacific puzzle in the power corridors of Washington, Tokyo and Delhi, in addition to mapping Beijing’s approach to Indo-Pacific. The article evaluates the contrast in their respective visions of order, China strategy, ASEAN centrality and multilateral free-trade regimes. But these subtle departures have not restricted major Indo-Pacific powers to weave a strategic web of democracies and pursue a win-win issue-based multi-alignment on matters of mutual strategic interests. With new realities in play, the India-US-Japan triangle will feature as one of the key building blocks of Indo-Pacific to deliver on the shared responsibility of providing global public goods.
Publication Year: 2020
Emerging Contours of Contemporary Asian Maritime Connectivity: Economic and Strategic Objectives
DOI: 10.1177/0974928420936136
Abstract: This article intends to look at how contemporary and future Asian connectivity linkages are likely to impact Asian geopolitics and geo-strategy. While China has dominated the contemporary connectivity discourse with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), other players such as Australia, India, Japan and the USA are engaged in their own connectivity bids which often converge and intersect in the region. As a result, the countries involved in the Indo-Pacific cross-linkages are tacitly entering a game of one-upmanship. Influence through connectivity linkages has also shifted the discourse around balance of power for countries to balance of influence. It is in this context that initiatives such as the Mausam find centrality in the country’s changing outlook. This article attempts to look at Asian connectivity from a dual perspective of economic competition, on one hand, and strategic calculations, on the other hand. The scope of the article is limited to analysing China, India and Japan as leading Asian countries in the emerging connectivity competition, besides the USA as the most important external players in Asian connectivity geopolitics and geo-strategy.
Publication Year: 2020
Indo-Pacific Order and Japan–India Relations in the Midst of COVID-19
DOI: 10.1177/2631684620940476
Abstract: Because of the USA’s relative decline of national power and the rapid emergence of China, the Indo-Pacific lacks a regional order as existed during the latter half of the twentieth century. The USA and China have had strained relations since the 2010s as economic and hegemonic rivals. Furthermore, at the cusp of the 2020s, a blame game is unfolding over COVID-19. Neither nation can be expected to serve a role as an order manager of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Under such international situations, Japan and India should cooperate to initiate consideration of the regional order now. To establish such an order for the future, ends and means carry an importance. The ends should be the creation of a free, open, inclusive and democratic Indo-Pacific. The means should be some mechanisms based on principles of multilateralism, for example, Quad-Plus, not only involving the four countries: like-minded countries should also be included. In this way, we can find a silver lining beyond COVID-19.
Publication Year: 2020
India in the Indo-Pacific: New Delhi’s Theater of Opportunity
Abstract: The paper identifies three specific elements of India’s Indo-Pacific approach. First, it underlines the Indo-Pacific as an opportunity to expand its footprint across the region while facing significant capacity and capital constraints. Second, it places partnerships at the core of India’s Indo-Pacific interests. While collaborations with bigger powers such as Australia, France, Japan, and the United States have provided a greater platform for New Delhi to expand its diplomatic footprint, its relationship with island nations will shape India’s role in the Indo-Pacific. Due to the geographic proximity of the island states—both Maldives and Sri Lanka, and to a greater extent Mauritius and Seychelles—to India, their foreign policy choices will have a direct impact on New Delhi’s security environment. Finally, although the Indo-Pacific presents new opportunities to India’s great power ambitions, India’s priorities and significant investments will remain in the Indian Ocean.
In examining these three elements of India’s Indo-Pacific policy, the paper sheds further light into its new geopolitical challenges and strategic dilemmas while deliberating emerging opportunities and options to address its developing threats and challenges.
Publication Year: 2020
Indo-US Convergence of Agenda in the new Indo-Pacific Regional Security Architecture
DOI: 10.1177/0262728020915564
Abstract: Strengthened Indo-US proximity has become a notable factor in the regional security architecture of the Indo-Pacific region, and also it raises ongoing concerns about its robustness. This article analyses the geostrategic, geoeconomic, security-related and defence-connected Indo-US relations in the region over the last two decades, highlighting the growing multidimensional convergence of US and Indian interests in the Indo-Pacific regional security architecture. In the final part, this article also sketches the future implications of Indo-US proximity and seeks to identify potential risks.
Publication Year: 2020
China as a Revisionist Power in Indo-Pacific and India’s Perception: A Power-Partner Contention
DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2020.1766906
Abstract: Debate concerning China’s emergence as a revisionist power has taken a more direct shape under the Donald Trump administration in the United States. Such a debate is not as prevalent in India even though New Delhi began perceiving Beijing’s assertive rise long-ago with caution. India’s deductions of China as a revisionist power are drawn on its national security calculus and the anticipatory challenges it faces from China in the land and maritime domain that threatens the status-quo of the region. In other words, India’s perception of China in Indo-Pacific is much more constructive, drawn on a dualist outlook of power-partner contention, that comes both as a challenge as well as opportunity.
Publication Year: 2020
India–South Korea Relations Under ‘Special Strategic Partnership’: ‘Act East Policy’ Meets ‘New Southern Policy’
DOI: 10.1177/0974928420917798
Abstract: Of late India–South Korea relations have witnessed an upswing with the elevation of bilateral relation to Special Strategic Partnership (SSP) in 2015. Explaining the context and developments in bilateral relations, the article observes that the new momentum articulated in SSP constitutes a convergence of interests through the meeting of India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and South Korea’s ‘New Southern Policy’. The growing cooperation in defence, security, development, industry and a shared vision for regional order has visibly enhanced the scope and depth of the strategic partnership between the two countries, however, not without challenges in the emerging Indo-Pacific regional context.
