Publication Year: 2020
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project legitimisation: The rhetor’s innovation and the US response
DOI: 10.1177/2057891120959476
Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has attracted support and critique for its legitimacy and potential success. Its opponents see challenges more than prospects because of American inattention and resistance, and its proponents see prospects more than challenges because of the attention from the rest of the world. While both sides use valid reasons for their explicit or implicit views, they focus on the legitimacy by its taken-for-granted status. The BRI project as innovation is at the legitimisation process stage. To address the legitimisation of the BRI project innovation, we use rhetorical theory to analyse the Chinese official report in 2019, the American versus European media response to the BRI project and the US direct response to the BRI in the Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2019. Our exploratory findings show insights into the subjects, industries and regions. Firstly, the American media attention far exceeds the European media attention. Secondly, the American media attention and direct response to the BRI highlight the political issues, and the European media attention highlights economic issues. The Chinese official report mentions European countries, and excludes the USA. Thirdly, it uses Pakistan more frequently than other countries or regions in its achievement report, but the US has not mentioned Pakistan at all in its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Fourthly, the US political logic diverges from the logic of the BRI project, while the European economic logic converges to the logic of the BRI project. Based on these findings, we contribute to the legitimisation process of innovation, rhetorical theory and policy implications in the world.
Publication Year: 2020
Sino-US Disorder: Power and Policy in Post-COVID Indo-Pacific
DOI: 10.1177/2631684620940448
Abstract: Great powers have invested in order-building projects with competing vision of political values and ideologies. How the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic shapes the balance of power and order are debated. The pandemic arrived in the midst of Sino-US strategic contestation, a crumbling European project, de-globalisation and contested economic governance architecture. While the pandemic exacerbated Washington abdicating leadership role, Beijing also has alienated itself from the followers of rules based order. It has sharpened the clash of rhetoric, narratives, and perceptions. The pandemic will reorganise the international system and power structures. Situating the Indo-Pacific project in this backdrop, this article critically analyses the debates, discourses and nuanced divergences that are shaping the Indo-Pacific puzzle in the power corridors of Washington, Tokyo and Delhi, in addition to mapping Beijing’s approach to Indo-Pacific. The article evaluates the contrast in their respective visions of order, China strategy, ASEAN centrality and multilateral free-trade regimes. But these subtle departures have not restricted major Indo-Pacific powers to weave a strategic web of democracies and pursue a win-win issue-based multi-alignment on matters of mutual strategic interests. With new realities in play, the India-US-Japan triangle will feature as one of the key building blocks of Indo-Pacific to deliver on the shared responsibility of providing global public goods.
Publication Year: 2020
Emerging Contours of Contemporary Asian Maritime Connectivity: Economic and Strategic Objectives
DOI: 10.1177/0974928420936136
Abstract: This article intends to look at how contemporary and future Asian connectivity linkages are likely to impact Asian geopolitics and geo-strategy. While China has dominated the contemporary connectivity discourse with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), other players such as Australia, India, Japan and the USA are engaged in their own connectivity bids which often converge and intersect in the region. As a result, the countries involved in the Indo-Pacific cross-linkages are tacitly entering a game of one-upmanship. Influence through connectivity linkages has also shifted the discourse around balance of power for countries to balance of influence. It is in this context that initiatives such as the Mausam find centrality in the country’s changing outlook. This article attempts to look at Asian connectivity from a dual perspective of economic competition, on one hand, and strategic calculations, on the other hand. The scope of the article is limited to analysing China, India and Japan as leading Asian countries in the emerging connectivity competition, besides the USA as the most important external players in Asian connectivity geopolitics and geo-strategy.
Publication Year: 2020
The Limits of Intergovernmentalism: The Philippines’ Changing Strategy in the South China Sea Dispute and Its Impact on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
DOI: 10.1177/1868103420935562
Abstract: Focusing on the Philippines’ changing foreign policy agendas on the South China Sea dispute, this article examines the limitations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) intergovernmental approach in addressing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. It contends that former President Benigno Aquino III tried to harness this regional organisation in his balancing policy vis-à-vis China’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea. On the contrary, President Rodrigo Duterte promoted his appeasement policy on China when he became the ASEAN’s chairperson in 2017, and pushed for the elusive passage of the ASEAN–China Code of Conduct in 2019. In conclusion, the article scrutinises the implications of this shift in the Philippines’ foreign policy for the ASEAN, and raises the need for this regional organisation to rethink its intergovernmental approach to the security challenges posed by the changing geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region.
Publication Year: 2020
Do China’s New Islands allow it to militarily dominate the South China Sea?
DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1749598
Abstract: Since the start of China’s island-building efforts, there has been widespread concern that these islands would host long-range sensors and munitions and thereby facilitate Chinese military dominance in the South China Sea. This article explains that the military advantages that these islands provide are overstated. The interplay of geography and constraints on sensor coverage leaves China ill-positioned to detect ships and aircraft throughout the South China Sea, let alone to target them. While these technical constraints place hard limits on Chinese military capabilities, ameliorating them would likely face severe political constraints and major tradeoffs in force structure. Consequently, there are grounds for considerable skepticism of widely held concerns about the military implications of China’s island-building efforts. The military balance in the South China Sea has not been greatly altered and China’s anti-access capabilities, such as they are, have not been fully extended into the South China Sea.
Publication Year: 2020
The Rise of China and Japan’s ‘Vision’ for Free and Open Indo-Pacific
DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2020.1766907
Abstract: Unlike the common view that sees FOIP as a containment strategy against China, this article argues that Japan’s FOIP vision seeks to maintain an open and inclusive regional order that incorporates all regional countries into a common framework. To realize such a vision, Japan has strengthened its regional order-building efforts with other regional like-minded countries. However, such efforts have limitations in terms of the resource shortage, legal constraints, and the lack of regional consensus. Unless Japan can address these challenges, the FOIP would end up being a mere utopian dream, rather than a meaningful vision or strategy that can prevent the emergence of a Cold War and maintain an inclusive and rules-based order in the region.
Publication Year: 2020
China as a Revisionist Power in Indo-Pacific and India’s Perception: A Power-Partner Contention
DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2020.1766906
Abstract: Debate concerning China’s emergence as a revisionist power has taken a more direct shape under the Donald Trump administration in the United States. Such a debate is not as prevalent in India even though New Delhi began perceiving Beijing’s assertive rise long-ago with caution. India’s deductions of China as a revisionist power are drawn on its national security calculus and the anticipatory challenges it faces from China in the land and maritime domain that threatens the status-quo of the region. In other words, India’s perception of China in Indo-Pacific is much more constructive, drawn on a dualist outlook of power-partner contention, that comes both as a challenge as well as opportunity.
Publication Year: 2020
Can China Change the International System? The Role of Moral Leadership
DOI: 10.1093/cjip/poaa002
Abstract: Yan Xuetong’s Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers argues that China should follow moral values in its foreign policy in order to attain international leadership. Drawing on ancient Chinese thought, Yan makes the case that China should strive for humane authority, influencing other states by leading through moral example and attracting supporters through providing benefits rather than using coercion. This essay evaluates the feasibility of China’s attainment of humane authority, which is related to status. Humane authority follows norms consistently toward rivals as well as friendly states whereas a hegemon uses a double standard. But double standards may not be so easily avoided because they derive from inherent psychological bias. The option of acquiring followers by providing them with security guarantees is not available to China in East Asia because of the prior existence of the US alliance system. Yan predicts that China’s growth will lead to a bipolar structure but points out that the conditions for a Cold War are absent. Nevertheless, technological competition between the US and China could lead to a ‘new Cold War’, which would hamper China’s efforts to widen its circle of followers. To be a humane authority, China should also avoid a war with the USA. There is a risk that naval competition could lead to local conflicts as a result of security dilemma dynamics. The two states should control status rivalry through a division of labour, by accepting the other’s pre-eminence in different areas through social cooperation.
Publication Year: 2020
China’s Rise and Balance of Power Politics
DOI: 10.1093/cjip/poz018
Abstract: The post-Cold War international system, dominated by the United States, has been shaken by the relative downturn of the US economy and the simultaneous rise of China. China is rapidly emerging as a serious contender for America’s dominance of the Indo-Pacific. What is noticeable is the absence of intense balance of power politics in the form of formal military alliances among the states in the region, unlike state behaviour during the Cold War era. Countries are still hedging as their strategic responses towards each other evolve. We argue that the key factor explaining the absence of intense hard balancing is the dearth of existential threat that either China or its potential adversaries feel up till now. The presence of two related critical factors largely precludes existential threats, and thus hard balancing military coalitions formed by or against China. The first is the deepened economic interdependence China has built with the potential balancers, in particular, the United States, Japan, and India, in the globalisation era. The second is the grand strategy of China, in particular, the peaceful rise/development, and infrastructure-oriented Belt and Road Initiative. Any radical changes in these two conditions leading to existential threats by the key states could propel the emergence of hard-balancing coalitions.
Publication Year: 2020
China’s rising naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean: aligning ends, ways and means
DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1721469
Abstract: China’s naval footprint in the Indian Ocean has expanded considerably over the last decade. This growing presence has led to significant debates about China’s goals and capabilities in the region. This article argues that China’s trajectory over the last ten years reflects an alignment of ends, ways and means in the Indian Ocean. The main driver behind China’s ambitions in the region is the need for Beijing to secure pivotal maritime lines of communications that carry a large share of Chinese oil imports and a sizable part of Chinese exports. Fulfilling this mission has required a significant adjustment of China’s naval strategy, and the addition of ‘open seas protection’ to the core missions of the PLA Navy. This strategy has, in turn, been supported by the development of a navy with increased sea control capabilities and overseas basing plans that have started to materialize in Djibouti.
Publication Year: 2022
Great Power Competition and Order Building in the Indo-Pacific: Towards a New Indo-Pacific Equilibrium
Abstract: This book argues that the new great power contest between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, which has as its epicentre the complex Indo-Pacific region, is having a detrimental impact on the region’s existing order system. Analysing why the great powers are increasingly at loggerheads, the manifold risks this entails, and how the various stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific can find a durable regional order more constructive than confrontational, the book, avoiding theory, proposes a new equilibrium based on practical ways to manage burgeoning conflict and maintain order and stability by compartmentalising problems and challenges while seeking to maintain a balance among stakeholder interests.
Publication Year: 2021
Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the Contest for the World’s Pivotal Region
Abstract: The Indo-Pacific is both a place and an idea. It is the region central to global prosperity and security. It is also a metaphor for collective action. If diplomacy fails, it will be the theatre of the first general war since 1945. But if its future can be secured, the Indo-Pacific will flourish as a shared space, the centre of gravity in a connected world.
What we call different parts of the world – Asia, Europe, the Middle East – seems innocuous. But the name of a region is totemic, guiding the decisions of leaders and the story of international order, war and peace. In recent years, the label ‘Indo-Pacific’ has suddenly gained wide use. But what does it really mean?
Written by a globally-renowned expert, Indo-Pacific Empire is the definitive guide to tensions in the region. It deftly weaves together history, geopolitics, cartography, military strategy, economics, games and propaganda to address a vital question: how can China’s dominance be prevented without war?
Publication Year: 2021
Maritime Issues and Regional Order in the Indo-Pacific
Abstract: This edited volume examines the political and security issues influencing and shaping the developing maritime order in the Indo Pacific. If focuses specifically on the impact of China’s maritime expansion upon the policies and strategies of the regional states as well as the major players. The chapters examine the interaction of these players, paying particular attention to Japan, as the originator of the Indo Pacific idea and promoter of security cooperation and regionalism. It also covers the responses of the ASEAN claimants, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines as well as Indonesia, alongside the key players, India, the US and also the EU.
Publication Year: 2021
Tracing the Undersea Dragon: Chinese SSBN Programme and the Indo-Pacific
Abstract: This book is a comprehensive study of the development of China’s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). It offers insights into the secretive world of nuclear submarines and ballistic missiles of the Chinese (PLA) Navy and studies how these are likely to grow in the next two decades.
The volume examines the technological origins of the design and development of Chinese nuclear submarines, ballistic missiles, and their naval construction capabilities. It provides an analysis of the underlying Chinese nuclear doctrine, China’s maritime geographical constraints for submarine operations, and the credibility of its sea-based deterrence. It draws upon strategy, nuclear policy, technology, geography, and operational considerations to holistically predict the likely SSBN force levels of the PLA Navy for various scenarios. The book also assesses the spectrum of threats likely from the undersea domain for India and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region.
A key text on an obscure but vital facet of Chinese defence studies, this book will be useful for scholars and researchers of strategic affairs, international relations and disarmament studies, peace and conflict studies, geopolitics, foreign policy, Indo-Pacific studies, and diplomacy.
Publication Year: 2021
Rebalancing Asia: The Belt and Road Initiative and Indo-Pacific Strategy
Abstract: This book explores the struggle between China and the United States to expand their influence in Asia through economic assistance and defensive alliances. It brings together the diverse viewpoints of scholars from various countries on how Asian countries will exploit this geo-strategic competition to pursue their national interests, while also balancing their relations with the two great powers. The book offers a valuable asset for all those who have an interest in great power politics and international relations, especially academics, policymakers and security experts.
