Rising Powers’ Security Weigh-Ins

Policy Alert #182 | February 12, 2019

The failed negotiations over the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) between the United States and Russia spiked concerns in rising powers about their own security as well as global stability. The long-standing Treaty effectively dissolved as US President Donald Trump announced that his country would “suspend its obligations under the INF Treaty effective February 2, 2019” and gave Russia 180 days to remedy alleged violations on its side. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded in kind, however; Putin emphasized that his country’s actions would only be to “mirror” actions taken by Washington first (official statement in Russian here). Although the treaty was a bilateral agreement, President Trump’s demands to include China as a member state and growing uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific from other sources of tension have led to domestic discussions of how each country is measuring up to its neighbors. In this Policy Alert, we catch up on the Rising Powers’ weigh-ins.

 

CHINA
In response to the US’s announcement that it was suspending its observation of the INF Treaty, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang responded to inquiries that “China finds this move regrettable. […] China is opposed to the US withdrawal and urges the US and Russia to properly resolve differences through constructive dialogue.

 

JAPAN
Following a report by Reuters in October 2018 that Japan and Germany were being courted as a potential new members to the “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing group between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US, the Japanese government appears to have made significant efforts to cement an official invitation. The Nikkei Asian Review reports that since the New Year, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe paid a visit to British Prime Minister Theresa May last month, discussed the ongoing tensions between China and Canada over the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and hosted German Chancellor Angela Merkel during an official visit to Tokyo. The bungling of the INF Treaty negotiations between the US and Russia has put Japan between a rock and a hard place, however: following Japan’s tepid endorsement of the US withdrawal, Russia warned Japan’s ongoing efforts to improve bilateral ties were under threat.

 

INDIA
India’s sense of security was rattled by a series of high-profile crashes in the Indian Air Force. Although several occurred throughout 2018, having two crashes on January 28 and February 1 of this year left the public in doubt of the Air Force’s capabilities. In addition to wariness of the INF Treaty’s impact on the region, another source of concern for the India is the report that the US is pursuing negotiations with the Taliban as part of its withdrawal from nearby Afghanistan.

RUSSIA
Following the aforementioned exchange between the United States and Russia regarding the INF Treaty, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that the US was guilty of violations of the accord: “According to our information, the United States started violating that undated treaty in 1999 when it began trials of combat unmanned flying vehicles with specifications similar to those of ground-launched cruise missiles banned by the Treaty. Later it started using target missiles, ballistic target missiles, for testing its missile defense system, whereas starting 2014 it began deploying in Europe launching pads for its positioning areas of missile defense – MK 41 launching pads, which may absolutely be used without any changes and to launch Tomahawk medium-range cruise missiles.” Further, Minister Lavrov explained that Russia tried “to do everything to save the INF Treaty, considering its importance for preserving strategic stability in Europe and globally.”

  • In its coverage of the INF Treaty dissolution, state-owned Sputnik News featured interviews with honorary Vice President of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) Bruce Kent, nonprofit Beyond Nuclear’s “Radioactive Waste Watchdog” Kevin Kamps, senior research associate at the Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses Rajiv Nayan, and foreign affairs analyst Rakesh Krishnan Simha. The interviews all emphasized the destabilizing effects the end of the INF Treaty will bring.

 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.