Policy Alert #197 | October 30, 2019

The Syria-Turkey border crisis triggered by the US continues to create political reverberations in the rising powers. On October 7, 2019, United States President Donald Trump abruptly announced that he intended to withdraw US troops from Syria: “[I]t is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars [sic], many of them being tribal, and bring our soldiers home. […] Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out”. At a press conference later that day, President Trump confirmed his plans as “a firm decision.” Two days later, Turkey launched an assault on Syria, with plans to clear a stretch of land to resettle Syrian refugees. This action confirmed fears that the US withdrawal left its Kurdish allies at risk. On October 17, US and Turkey brokered a 120-hour ceasefire to allow Kurdish forces time to withdraw. As the ceasefire was due to expire on October 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow and successfully negotiated a longer ceasefire set to expire on October 29, which was supported by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Reports of violations of the ceasefire remain rampant, however. Despite the US’s announcement to withdraw from the region, on October 27, the US raided a compound in northwestern Syria and killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a key leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorist organization. In announcing the outcome of the raid, Trump thanked “the nations of Russia, Turkey, Syria and Iraq, and […] the Syrian Kurds” for their support in the operation. 

 

CHINA

In response to Turkey’s mobilization in Syria on October 9, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang emphasized the need for “the Turkish side to exercise restraint”: “China holds that Syria’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity must be respected and upheld.” As the fighting escalated, China’s response strengthened through another statement from Spokesperson Geng: “China opposes the use of force in international relations. […] We call on Turkey to stop its military actions and come back to the right course of political settlement.” China welcomed Russia’s efforts to mediate the situation through an agreement with Turkey negotiated on October 22: “China hopes this agreement between Russia and Turkey will contribute to de-escalation in the region. We hope all relevant parties will work together, earnestly respect and safeguard Syria’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, create favorable conditions for more progress in the political settlement of the Syrian issue, and make concerted efforts in fighting terrorism.” 

• The state-supported China Daily expressed sympathy for the Kurds in regards to the deal between Russia and Turkey: “Ironically, the voice of the Kurdish people in northern Syria whose fate is to be directly shaped by the deal has not been heard. They were the key US allies in fighting against the Islamic State terrorist group in Syria over the past five years, at the cost of thousands of their fighters’ lives. Now dubbed by Ankara as terrorists because of their presumed links to Kurdish insurgents in Turkey, they have 150 hours starting at noon Wednesday to leave almost the entire northeastern border.”
• The nationalist Global Times condemned the US’s sudden decision to withdraw: “Is the US really going to abandon the Middle East? If so, Washington should pull itself from the region smoothly and avoid wrecking havoc in the region or making its people suffer. The US should be blamed for the chaos after withdrawing from the northern Syria.”
• The independent South China Morning Post pointed out that the disruption of the US’s withdrawal and Turkey’s offensive would benefit terrorists: “An obvious mistake in abandoning Kurds and allowing Turkey to attack them is that they are holding an estimated 12,000 Isis fighters and their families in prisons. If the Kurds are killed or forced to flee, jailbreaks and resumption of terrorism are likely. […] The president has to listen to the advice and keep American troops engaged.”

 

INDIA

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs expressed concern with Turkey’s offensive into Syria in a press release on October 10: “We are deeply concerned at the unilateral military offensive by Turkey in north-east Syria. Turkey’s actions can undermine stability in the region and the fight against terrorism. Its action also has the potential for causing humanitarian and civilian distress. We call upon Turkey to exercise restraint and respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria. We urge the peaceful settlement of all issues through dialogue and discussion.”

• The left-leaning Hindu criticized the Trump administration not for withdrawing, but for “the way in which it is abruptly disengaging itself and the potential consequences.”
• The liberal Indian Express, meanwhile, pointed out that the Indian government’s response to the Turkish offensive was likely motivated by Turkey’s own criticism of India’s decision to end the special status of Jammu and Kashmir this past August: “The statement on Turkey may be part of the “with us, or against us” style of diplomacy that has taken hold in South Block in recent years, where a country must profess loyalty to India and be critical of Pakistan to make the cut. This would be all very well if India was an economic powerhouse. But to be struggling along in terms of growth rate, and to make enemies of other nations in this manner, is not the wisest thing to do.”
• The liberal Hindustan Times argued that with the decision to withdraw, “the US has reinforced the sense that its strategic commitment to West Asia continues to fade, its interventions intermittent and short-lived.”
• The centrist Times of India supported the Indian government for its criticism of Turkey: “To be clear, what Turkey is doing is ethnic cleansing of Syrian Kurds. Yet it has the temerity to talk about the plight of Kashmiris. […] New Delhi should stand firm and continue exposing Ankara’s double standards.”
• The pro-government Daily Pioneer predicted that the recent jostling in the region will only stir up more trouble: “The Syrian territory, now in Turkish control, may fall into the hands of the ISIS which has been emboldened by the US withdrawal and SDF’s [Syrian Democratic Forces] scheduled departure. Moreover, if Turkey leaves northeastern Syria without giving control to an able force, it can only lead to further destablisation in the region.”

 

JAPAN

The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the Turkish offensive: “Japan is deeply concerned that the latest military operation would make the settlement of Syrian crisis more difficult and cause further deterioration of the humanitarian situation. Japan once again underscores its position that the Syrian crisis cannot be solved by any military means. Japan hopes that all parties concerned will play a constructive role in improving the humanitarian situation in Syria and in advancing the UN-led political process. Japan will continue to work closely with the international community toward the settlement of the crisis in Syria.”

• The left-leaning Mainichi condemned President Trump’s announcement to withdraw from Syria in an editorial: “This is a measure that will further destabilize the situation in the already conflict-ridden Middle East.”

 

RUSSIA

At a regular press conference, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded to the Turkish offensive: “[W]e urge all parties on the ground to exercise restraint and carefully consider their actions in order to prevent a further escalation of tension. We are convinced that achieving sustainable and long-term stabilisation and security in this region of Syria, that country and the region in general is possible only on the basis of restoring its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This means the ultimate transfer of all national territories, including the border with Turkey, under control [sic] of the legitimate Syrian Government.” In a speech at the Academic Board of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clarified his country’s position: “The consequences of reckless activities by the US and its allies remain to be overcome. As you know, we are tackling this issues, first and foremost, by facilitating efforts to root out terrorism in Syria, resolve the country’s humanitarian problems, promote the return of refugees and launch a political process, which we expect to begin with the start of the Constitutional Committee’s activities in Geneva later in the week.”

• Military commentator for government-funded RT, Mikhail Khodarenok provided his interpretation of the events of the last month and thoughts for the Russian government moving forward: “Here is the scope of what Russia should be doing from here on out: continue working with the Kurds, continue working with Damascus, control the Syria-Iraq border by deploying Syrian border patrol units, restore Syrian governing institutions in the liberated regions, and raise Syrian flags.”
• RT senior writer Nebojsa Malic, meanwhile, criticized President Trump’s announcement that “a small number of US troops will remain in the area where they [Syria] have oil” as “self-defeating”: “[T]he oil gambit is not about IS, but about blocking the government in Damascus from using its own natural resources to rebuild. Already under a blockade by the US and its EU allies, Syria desperately needs the oil to help its people survive the winter.”
• State-owned Sputnik News featured interviews with Alexander Azadgan, editor-at-large with the United World International analytical center, as well as former CIA counter-terrorism specialist Philip Giraldi, US military veteran and security analyst Mark Sleboda, and political analyst Christopher Assad.
• Writing for the independent, Dutch-based Moscow Times, Alexei Khlebnikov, Middle East expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, “It is to be expected that the Kremlin will soon ask Ankara to completely leave northeast Syria. Once Kurdish withdrawal and disarmament are completed, there will be no need for Turkey to stay in Syria, and Moscow will surely push this narrative in order to restore Syrian territorial integrity.”

 

 

 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.