Policy Alert #248 | April 11, 2022

On April 7, after graphic images emerged of civilian killings in the city of Bucha just outside Kyiv, the United Nations General Assembly voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council over “gross and systematic violations and abuses of human rights.” Ukraine accused Russia of killing more than 300 civilians in Bucha, leading to an even greater condemnation of Russia from the international community, albeit with varying intensity across non-western rising powers. The resolution to eject Russia passed with 93 countries voting in favor, 24 voting against, and 58 abstaining. Notably, this represented a shift in Russia’s favor since the first UNGA vote to condemn Russia on March 2. The Ukraine-Russia conflict appears to be entering a new phase: Russia is preparing to launch another offensive, this time concentrating its attacks on the eastern part of Ukraine. Russia’s offensive is now proceeding on two primary fronts, according to Ukrainian officials, after forces shifted initial efforts to take Kyiv: against the southeastern port city of Mariupol and in Ukraine’s far east, especially the contested Luhansk region.  Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have reportedly made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan, according to five people briefed on the talks. The plan would involve Ukraine dropping its aspiration to join NATO and declaring neutrality, in return for a ceasefire and Russia’s army withdrawing. However, in a televised statement, Mykhailo Podolyak, one of Ukraine’s peace negotiators, claimed the tone of peace talks had forever changed after evidence of the mass killings in Bucha. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed he is committed to pressing for peace despite Russian attacks on civilians but he renewed his plea for more weapons ahead of an expected surge in fighting in the country’s east.

Russia

Russia has denied Ukrainian allegations that it killed civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, describing footage and photographs of dead bodies as a “provocation” and a “staged performance” by Kyiv. “All the photos and videos published by the Kyiv regime, allegedly testifying to the ‘crimes’ of Russian servicemen in the city of Bucha, Kyiv region, are another provocation,” Russia’s defense ministry said in a statement. It called the footage “another staged performance by the Kyiv regime for the Western media.” This comes after Russia claimed it would reduce the intensity of attacks against Ukraine in its northern regions in order to “boost mutual trust” and facilitate further negotiations. “Due to the fact that negotiations over an agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality and non-nuclear status and security guarantees are moving into a practical stage…the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has taken the decision to drastically reduce combat operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas,” a statement by Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin stated.

China

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian claimed the decision to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council “will only exacerbate the division among member states … and set a dangerous new precedent.” Explaining the reason for China’s abstention, China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun wrote, “Regrettably, the draft resolution… has not undergone full consultations within the whole membership… nor does it take full consideration the history and complexity of the current crisis…It does not highlight the importance of the principle of indivisible security, or the urgency of promoting political settlement and stepping up diplomatic efforts. These are not in line with China’s consistent positions.”  Following an EU-China summit via video conference on April 1, when pressed about sanctions on Russia, Wang Lutong, Director-General of European Affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters that China is contributing to the global economy by conducting normal trade with Russia. “China is not a related party on the crisis of Ukraine… We don’t think our normal trade with any other country should be affected,” Lutong conveyed. China has also denied being asked for, or supplying, any military support for Russia.

• In an op-ed for the nationalist Global Times, Yi Xin outlines the ‘seven sins’ of the US in the Ukraine crisis, including its ‘double standards’ on human rights: “Self-portrayed as a human rights ‘defender,’ the US has, in reality, played a part in wars and chaos in… Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria.”
• In an op-ed for the independent South China Morning Post, Lijia Zhang describes how the Ukraine crisis is hurting China’s soft power ambitions: “Its stance on Ukraine hasn’t helped and Beijing must now distance itself from Moscow, and seek to negotiate a peace deal, to avoid further damaging its reputation.”

India

Following the widely documented killing of civilians in Bucha, India, for the first time, has “unequivocally condemned” the killings and supported the call for an “independent probe.” On the resolution to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council, this was India’s 11th vote at the UN where it abstained since Russia invaded Ukraine. India questioned the process by which the move to suspend Russia took place given that it happened before the international probe into the massacre. India also believed that it should have been brought before the Human Rights Council, not the UNGA. 

• In an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express, Shubhajit Roy claimed that despite India’s abstention, its evolution towards Ukraine has been gradual: “New Delhi sharpened its criticism of Russia by flagging three concerns: respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, UN Charter, and international law. This was the first time India was invoking these three red lines.” 
• The business focused The Economic Times pointed out that India in its Explanation of Vote had no mention of the issue of territorial integrity and sovereignty: “This is the first time in the last two months that India has omitted this part.”

Japan 

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida lambasted what he called “brutal and inhumane acts” carried out in Bucha. Japan’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and cited the killings of civilians in large numbers, calling them war crimes, the ministry said in a statement. During his visit to India on March 19, Kishida urged Narendra Modi to take a tougher line on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but a joint statement after talks in New Delhi fell short of condemning Moscow’s actions. On April 8, Kishida announced that Japan will phase out Russian coal imports, in a major shift toward cutting its reliance on Russia following renewed condemnation for its alleged atrocities.