Rising Powers Wary on India-Pakistan Tension

Policy Alert #184 | March 8, 2019

On February 14th, 40 Indian Central Reserve Police Force personnel were killed in a terrorist attack in the Pulwama district on the Indian side of the disputed region of Kashmir. Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility, leading initially to an exchanged of barbed remarks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan with the former charging that the attack was carried out with the support of the Pakistani government and the latter denying the allegations. While many eyes were on the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, tensions between India and Pakistan continued to escalate as India retaliated with an airstrike inside Pakistan at a purported militant training camp. Pakistan responded with its own airstrikes and an aerial engagement over the Line of Control in which an Indian pilot was captured, who was later released. In addition to the concerns over the two countries’ ongoing rivalry and nuclear armaments, the two sides’ use of aircraft procured from Russia, China, and–allegedly in the case of Pakistan–the US, highlighted the Rising Powers’ intertwined interests in the Indo-Pacific.

 

INDIA

Following the terrorist attack, the Ministry of External Affairs “condemn[ed] in the strongest possible terms the cowardly terrorist attack.” The MEA further “demand[ed] that Pakistan stop supporting terrorists and terror groups operating from their territory,” and “reiterated its appeal” for the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) Chief Masood Azhar to be designated as a terrorist under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) protocol–a move that has been blocked by China in the past. Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave “full freedom to the security forces” to respond as necessary and warned, “I want to tell the terror outfits and those aiding and abetting them that they have made a big mistake. They will have to pay a very heavy price for their actions.” Following the attack, the MEA reported that US National Security Advisor John Bolton told his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval that the US supported “India’s right to self-defence against cross-border terrorism [and] offered all assistance to India to bring the perpetrators and backers of the attack promptly to justice.” In response to Pakistani Prime Minister’s comments on the attack, the MEA offered a lengthy rebuke that expressly denied India’s strikes were motivated by the upcoming General Elections: “India rejects this false allegation. India’s democracy is a model for the world which Pakistan would never understand. We demand Pakistan to stop misleading the international community and take credible and visible action against the perpetrators of Pulwama terrorist attack and other terrorists and terror groups operating from areas under their control.”

 

CHINA

Following the attack, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang offered his country’s condolences: “We express our deep sympathy and condolences to the bereaved families and the injured. China firmly opposes and strongly condemns all forms of terrorism and hopes that relevant countries in the region could make joint efforts to combat terrorism and preserve regional peace and security.” In response to questions about the strikes by both countries, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang maintained that, “Our concern is that India and Pakistan, two important countries in South Asia, will maintain good neighborliness and that South Asia will maintain peace and stability.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that in a phone call with Pakistani Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured his counterpart of China’s efforts to promote peace talks and “reiterated that the Chinese side hopes both Pakistan and India will exercise restraint and earnestly fulfill their commitment to preventing the aggravation of the situation. Meanwhile, Wang Yi stressed that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be earnestly respected, and that the Chinese side is unwilling to see acts violating the norms governing international relations.” Vice-Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou was reportedly dispatched to Islamabad to assist with creating an “enabling atmosphere” and “promote dialogue.” On the thorny question of China’s continued support to keep JeM leader Masoon Azhar off the list of designated terrorists by the UNSC, centrist Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported that Pakistan’s Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said that “We won’t test our friends either,” in a reference to Beijing.

 

JAPAN

In a statement following the terrorist attack, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono issued a statement to Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj: “I extend my sincere condolences to those who lost their lives and their bereaved families in the terrorist attack carried out in Pulwama of Jammu and Kashmir on February 14th. Such act of terrorism cannot be justified for any reason and Japan firmly condemns it. Japan expresses its solidarity with India in combating terrorism.” The Foreign Minister of Pakistan Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi met with Kono in Tokyo February 24 to 27th “to exchange views on Japan-Pakistan relations and regional issues.” Ahead of the meeting, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that “Pakistan has a traditional friendly relationship with Japan. The Ministers’ visit to Japan is expected to further deepen the friendly relations between Japan and Pakistan.” As tensions escalated, Minister Kono further clarified Japan’s position on February 28th: “Japan is concerned about the deteriorating situation in Kashmir. Japan strongly condemns the terrorist attack on 14 February 2019 for which the Islamic extremist group ‘Jaish-e-Mohammad’ claimed responsibility. Japan urges Pakistan to take stronger measures to counter terrorism.”

 

RUSSIA

On March 1, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly offered to assist with mediation between India and Pakistan in a phone call with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.