Policy Alert #184 | March 8, 2019

On February 14th, 40 Indian Central Reserve Police Force personnel were killed in a terrorist attack in the Pulwama district on the Indian side of the disputed region of Kashmir. Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility, leading initially to an exchanged of barbed remarks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan with the former charging that the attack was carried out with the support of the Pakistani government and the latter denying the allegations. While many eyes were on the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, tensions between India and Pakistan continued to escalate as India retaliated with an airstrike inside Pakistan at a purported militant training camp. Pakistan responded with its own airstrikes and an aerial engagement over the Line of Control in which an Indian pilot was captured, who was later released. In addition to the concerns over the two countries’ ongoing rivalry and nuclear armaments, the two sides’ use of aircraft procured from Russia, China, and–allegedly in the case of Pakistan–the US, highlighted the Rising Powers’ intertwined interests in the Indo-Pacific.

 

INDIA

Following the terrorist attack, the Ministry of External Affairs “condemn[ed] in the strongest possible terms the cowardly terrorist attack.” The MEA further “demand[ed] that Pakistan stop supporting terrorists and terror groups operating from their territory,” and “reiterated its appeal” for the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) Chief Masood Azhar to be designated as a terrorist under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) protocol–a move that has been blocked by China in the past. Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave “full freedom to the security forces” to respond as necessary and warned, “I want to tell the terror outfits and those aiding and abetting them that they have made a big mistake. They will have to pay a very heavy price for their actions.” Following the attack, the MEA reported that US National Security Advisor John Bolton told his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval that the US supported “India’s right to self-defence against cross-border terrorism [and] offered all assistance to India to bring the perpetrators and backers of the attack promptly to justice.” In response to Pakistani Prime Minister’s comments on the attack, the MEA offered a lengthy rebuke that expressly denied India’s strikes were motivated by the upcoming General Elections: “India rejects this false allegation. India’s democracy is a model for the world which Pakistan would never understand. We demand Pakistan to stop misleading the international community and take credible and visible action against the perpetrators of Pulwama terrorist attack and other terrorists and terror groups operating from areas under their control.”

• The left-leaning Hindu hailed the government’s double-pronged approach to handling the crisis and offered high praise to those who led the diplomatic charge that strengthened international support for India’s military response. “The government must, however, also assess what it has actually achieved in strategic terms, and the consequences of the ‘new normal’ it has sought to create with Pakistan,” The Hindu warned, taking stock of strategic matters of concern and the limits of the diplomatic victories.
• In an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express, former civil servant and secretary general of the Lok Janshakti Party Abdul Khaliq took to task those who have been inciting calls for conflict: “It is frightening to hear the WAR (wise after retirement) veterans […] spewing venom and cheerleading for strong military action and war if necessary, careless of the consequences.” Khaliq cited the appeals of a widow of one of the Indian service members killed in the counterstrikes: “We do not want a war. You do not realise the damage a war inflicts on people.”
• The pro-government Daily Pioneer has printed an onslaught of editorials since the initial terrorist attack. The Pioneer took issue with the politicization of the strikes against Pakistan, especially while the Indian pilot was still held by Pakistan: “[T]he barrage with each party listing what it had foregone in favour of national interest, one which quickly descended into a noisy game of charges and counter-charges as to who was the better Indian. What none of them realise is that India, at this point of time, cannot trivialise its fight against terror, one that has cost us civilians and soldiers in numbers bigger than the casualties of conventional wars, and make it seem as subservient to political interests.” Since the return of the pilot, the Pioneer argued that “We have to be on the ball and extremely vigilant about a Pakistani offensive. We could do so without brashness and bluster, instead consolidate our diplomatic offensive and build on the gains made so far.” The Daily Pioneer seemed to take exceptional pride in reports that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi slapped the wrist of his Pakistani counterpart by explaining that China “is unwilling to see acts violating the norms governing international relations.”
• Amidst the exchange of airstrikes, the center-right Times of India called on the political parties to set aside their campaigns for a show of unity: “The government […] must be restrained and not try to make political capital out of the situation, as that inherently invites opposition comebacks and rebuttals. Pakistan knows it cannot defeat India in direct conflict, but hopes to take advantage of India’s fractious polity at a time when the Lok Sabha election is coming up.” Citing the diplomatic momentum behind India, the Times also encouraged the country to pursue its interests by maintaining support outside the region: “India should work closely with the US, other Western powers and Russia to ensure Pakistan gives up terror safe havens.”

 

CHINA

Following the attack, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang offered his country’s condolences: “We express our deep sympathy and condolences to the bereaved families and the injured. China firmly opposes and strongly condemns all forms of terrorism and hopes that relevant countries in the region could make joint efforts to combat terrorism and preserve regional peace and security.” In response to questions about the strikes by both countries, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang maintained that, “Our concern is that India and Pakistan, two important countries in South Asia, will maintain good neighborliness and that South Asia will maintain peace and stability.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that in a phone call with Pakistani Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured his counterpart of China’s efforts to promote peace talks and “reiterated that the Chinese side hopes both Pakistan and India will exercise restraint and earnestly fulfill their commitment to preventing the aggravation of the situation. Meanwhile, Wang Yi stressed that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be earnestly respected, and that the Chinese side is unwilling to see acts violating the norms governing international relations.” Vice-Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou was reportedly dispatched to Islamabad to assist with creating an “enabling atmosphere” and “promote dialogue.” On the thorny question of China’s continued support to keep JeM leader Masoon Azhar off the list of designated terrorists by the UNSC, centrist Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported that Pakistan’s Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said that “We won’t test our friends either,” in a reference to Beijing.

• In response to the exchange of fire, the state-supported China Daily called for cooler heads to prevail, especially on the Indian side: “The anger over the heavy casualties is understandable. But using warplanes to bomb targets deep inside another sovereign country’s territory has only aggravated the situation. As has the rhetoric of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is keen to present a strong image ahead of the coming elections. It is worth noting that shortly after Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan assumed power last year, he invited Modi for dialogue, although the invitation was rejected by New Delhi.”
• The nationalist Global Times took the Indian media to task for implicating China in the attack. The Times noted while the Indian government “didn’t link” the attack to China, “[S]ome Indian media groundlessly targeted China, showing radical nationalism. Nationalism is easily fanned in India and it’s fair to say spoiled by the West, India is one of the most arrogant nationalist countries in Asia. [..W]e hope the Indian media will abandon radical nationalism, objectively view China-India relations and promote rational development of bilateral relations.”

 

JAPAN

In a statement following the terrorist attack, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono issued a statement to Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj: “I extend my sincere condolences to those who lost their lives and their bereaved families in the terrorist attack carried out in Pulwama of Jammu and Kashmir on February 14th. Such act of terrorism cannot be justified for any reason and Japan firmly condemns it. Japan expresses its solidarity with India in combating terrorism.” The Foreign Minister of Pakistan Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi met with Kono in Tokyo February 24 to 27th “to exchange views on Japan-Pakistan relations and regional issues.” Ahead of the meeting, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that “Pakistan has a traditional friendly relationship with Japan. The Ministers’ visit to Japan is expected to further deepen the friendly relations between Japan and Pakistan.” As tensions escalated, Minister Kono further clarified Japan’s position on February 28th: “Japan is concerned about the deteriorating situation in Kashmir. Japan strongly condemns the terrorist attack on 14 February 2019 for which the Islamic extremist group ‘Jaish-e-Mohammad’ claimed responsibility. Japan urges Pakistan to take stronger measures to counter terrorism.”

• The left-leaning Mainichi called for the two countries to exercise “self-restraint,” but also called for more to be done by third parties: “The international community should strengthen its unity to urge India and Pakistan to exercise self-restraint. The United States and China have already encouraged the two countries to hold dialogue and prevent the situation from worsening. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is poised to mediate between the two countries. The Japanese government should also get involved in the process toward settling the dispute.”
• The centrist Japan Times outlined the greater geopolitical aims that are complicating resolution of the conflict and emphasized, “Decision-makers in both [countries] must remain acutely aware of the potential consequences of miscalculation — and their friends, allies and partners must continually reinforce the message that their disputes must be resolved peacefully.”
• The business-focused Nikkei Asian Review put the blame on terrorist cells and encouraged India and Pakistan to work together to solve their shared problem: “To their credit, Modi and Khan have displayed a genuine openness to mending bilateral ties. The fact is, however, that repeated terrorist incidents in Kashmir are driving the neighbors further apart. As a first step toward a brighter future, the two sides need to rise above their mutual distrust and join hands to stop terrorism.”

 

RUSSIA

On March 1, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly offered to assist with mediation between India and Pakistan in a phone call with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.

• State-owned TASS featured an interview with editor-in-chief of magazine National Defense Igor Korotchenko, who touted the capabilities of the Russian-manufactured MiG-21s used by India against Pakistan’s F-16s, manufactured by the US: “The MiG-21, upgraded by Russia has an onboard radar and a wider range of guided air-to-air missiles. By its combat capabilities and flight parameters it is an equal of the F-16 version at the disposal of Pakistan’s Air Force.”
• Retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, in an op-ed for government-funded RT similarly offered high praise of Russian aircraft, but in the context of the Aero India 2019 exhibition which the Indian Ministry of Defense is using as part of its assessment for new procurements.

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.