Policy Alert #175 | October 15, 2018

In the past few weeks, attention within the Rising Powers has been on strengthening–or at least soothing–bilateral relations. The common motivating factor: the United States. Vice President Mike Pence stoked fury from China with his scathing comments about China in a speech at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., on October 4th that accused the country of a variety of ills, including sponsorship of “the wholesale theft of American technology” and plans to interfere in the upcoming midterm elections. India diversified its strategic partnerships with a five billion dollar deal with Russia amidst uncertainty about the US’s intentions and commitments. Debates in Japan over the US military bases in Okinawa have flared again as the country seeks to strengthen ties with regional partners as the US stands on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Brazil’s presidential election has entered a run-off between far-right Jair Bolsonaro and the liberal Fernando Haddad, who have opposing foreign policy platforms. In this week’s Policy Alert, we lend an ear to the Rising Powers’ frustrations and hopes.

 

CHINA

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in China on October 8th under the shadow of increased tensions between the two countries. In addition to the ongoing trade war and Pence’s remarks, Chinese and American naval destroyers came within 45 yards of each other in the South China Seas on September 30th. In response to Pence’s speech, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying stated, “The relevant speech made unwarranted accusations against China’s domestic and foreign policies and slandered China by claiming that China meddles in US internal affairs and elections. […] We are committed to joining hands with the US to work for non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. We urge the US to correct its wrongdoing, stop groundlessly accusing and slandering China and harming China’s interests and China-US ties, and take concrete actions to maintain the sound and steady development of China-US relations.” At a press conference with Pompeo, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated his country’s frustrations and hopes for resolution: “[A]s the United States continuously escalates trade frictions with China, it has also taken a series of actions that undermine China’s rights and interests regarding Taiwan and other issues, and made groundless accusations against China’s domestic and foreign policies. We believe such practice directly impacts our mutual trust. It casts a shadow over the prospects of China-U.S. relations and completely runs against the interests of the peoples of both countries. We ask the United States to stop these kinds of erroneous practices.”

• The People’s Daily, the official paper of the Communist Party of China, dismissed Pence’s claim that China’s development “was driven by American investment in China” as “hilarious” in a blistering editorial: “China’s development is by no means ‘driven by US investment in China,’ as some US politicians claim. It has been achieved by more than a billion Chinese people who have worked hard. Even when it comes to investing in China, […d]ata shows that since the 1980s, US investments in China only account for 7 percent to 10 percent of foreign investment. On the contrary, the US has made a lot of money from investing in China.”
• The nationalist Global Times maintained a relatively tempered response in its editorials. Criticisms of US policy focused on China’s right to self determination: “[T]he US should respect China’s right to development. It’s morally despicable to stop 1.4 billion people from marching toward prosperity and it is impossible to do so in reality.” However, the Times maintained that the best course of action was to synergize, rather than compete: “As great countries, China and the US should become the driving force for human society rather than fighting with each other. Such rationality should become the mainstay of China-US relations during their ups and downs.”
• The China Daily, a state-supported newspaper, offered some conciliatory remarks on Pompeo’s efforts: “It was heartening […] after Pence’s rant, that Pompeo said that US does not oppose China’s development, has no intention of blocking China, nor does it have a comprehensive policy to contain China. As he acknowledged, it is important that the two sides strengthen communication, enhance trust and strengthen their cooperation on the basis of rules.”

INDIA

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India on October 4th, and the two countries agreed to space cooperation, Russian support for a new nuclear power plant, and a five billion dollar contract for India to buy five S-400 Triumf missiles for its air defenses. Following a question about the deal, US President Donald Trump warned that India “will soon find out” how the US will respond to the seeming violation of the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In a press statement with President Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered warm words for the strength of the two countries’ ties: “India and Russia are unanimous in strengthening multi-polarity and multilateralism in this rapidly changing world. Both our countries have common interests in cooperating on terrorism, developments in Afghanistan and Indo-pacific, climate change, regional organizations like SCO, BRICS and multilateral organizations like the G20 and ASEAN. We have agreed to continue our beneficial cooperation and coordination in international institutions.” The Chinese Embassy in New Delhi also hosted a press conference to answer inquiries about trade tensions with the US in which Counselor Ji Rong called for India and China to “deepen their cooperation to fight trade protectionism.”

• The left-leaning Hindu supported India’s resistance to pressure to put “all its eggs in one strategic basket” by both agreeing to the Russian deal despite the threat of CAATSA and limiting the deal to the five missiles, but warned that such maneuvers will become more difficult: “New Delhi’s assertion of ‘strategic autonomy’ and desire for multipolarity will be seriously tested in the coming months. […] It is one thing to reinforce long-standing and close friendships as Mr. Modi did during his annual summit with the Russian President this month, and with the Iranian President earlier this year, or with the U.S. President last year — the situation can be much more complex when friends expect you to choose between them.”
• The center-right Times of India echoed its approval for the deal, however, it argued against riling the US further by getting involved in the US-China trade war: “[I]ndia must exhibit caution in its response to Chinese overtures now that Beijing is in trouble. It must not unsettle its newly established strategic relationship with the US for minimal gains, even as China’s offer to ease some non-tariff barriers looks currently appealing.”
• The liberal Hindustan Times, on the other hand, supported Indian cooperation with China: “India has a larger responsibility to protect an equitable multilateral trade order that helps its growth and the economic development of other countries in South Asia. Cooperating with China could be part of such efforts, although India will have to take care to ensure it is not seen as a member of some sort of club led by China. It should do everything to retain its options and strategies for independent action even as it works with other countries to protect and defend free trade.”

JAPAN

Japan has been busy bolstering bilateral ties in recent weeks. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hosted the Tenth Mekong-Japan Summit Meeting with his counterparts from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam on October 9th. Foreign Minister Taro Kono and Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya meanwhile met with their Australian counterparts for a two-plus-two security dialogue on October 10th. The joint statement reaffirms the two countries’ interests in cooperating on enhancing maritime security and regional connectivity in the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Abe and Foreign Minister Kono also met with Secretary Pompeo in Tokyo on October 6th in preparation for Pompeo’s next stop in North Korea. Secretary Pompeo’s visit was largely overshadowed by the results of Okinawa Prefecture’s gubernatorial election, however. Denny Tamaki, the successor-designate of the late Governor Takeshi Onaga, won the election and intends to continue Onaga’s activism against US military bases in the prefecture.

• Regarding the Mekong-Japan Summit, the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun praised the Abe administration’s “intention to assist” Myanmar in resolving the Rohingya issue through housing construction and participation in an independent investigation: “It is imperative for Japan to sustain Myanmar, which is isolated from the international community, and encourage it to steadily advance democracy.” The Yomiuri gave credit to Japan and Australia for securing “the stability of Asia”: “The necessity for Japan and Australia to broaden their cooperation with each other in the sphere of security, and deepen their connections, has grown further” in the wake of US foreign policy that puts the US economy first.
• The Japan Times was supportive of the Abe administration’s efforts to woo the countries of the Mekong River, however, it reminded the government not to forget its commitment to liberal values: “None of them are strong democracies and their governments instinctively lean toward Beijing on questions of governance and human rights. Japan cannot ignore those principles to engage these countries. Rather it must work with them and help them realize their value. Turning a blind eye will only undermine Japan’s position in those countries and in the world.”
• Takayasu Endo of the Mainichi Shimbun’s Naha Bureau, citing Tamaki’s unexpected, landslide victory that was akin to Onaga’s victory in 2014, called for the current efforts to relocate US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to another area of Okinawa to be revisited: “The central government and mainland Japan should no longer disappoint Okinawa people.”
• The left-leaning Asahi Shimbun criticized the government for “creat[ing] a deep rift among Okinawa’s population with its political approach of treating those who obey kindly but snubbing those who object” to the bases. The Asahi called for the government to seriously pursue the renegotiation of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement that includes meaningful dialogue with Okinawan residents, which was a platform supported by both Governor Tamaki and his opponent who was backed by the Abe administration.

BRAZIL

• The far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who won the first round of the Brazilian elections held on October 7th, intends to restore political and trade alliances with the United States, according to the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper. In addition to being a strong supporter of President Trump, Bolsonaro has repeated his intentions to strengthen ties with developed countries. Nevertheless, there are concerns that the U.S. would not reciprocate such an agenda.
• The opposing presidential candidate Fernando Haddad plans to prioritize increasing the collaboration with the Latin American neighbors and reactivating “south-south” cooperation, if elected. Haddad’s trade policy aligns with the previous Worker Party’s presidential terms under Dilma Rousseff and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s governments. O Globo featured Haddad’s other prospective projects in a recent editorial.
• The business newspaper Valor Economico covered the criticism made by President Donald Trump against Brazil during the official announcement of the new  US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal that will replace NAFTA. The newspaper argued that Trump will be displeased with Brazil’s unfair treatment of US companies, as the country allegedly taxed American products without objective parameters. Valor Economico suggested that revised tariffs and other measures should be taken to correct the unbalanced bilateral relations between the two countries.

 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.