Policy Alert #189 | May 29, 2019

The 2019 Indian elections concluded last week with a landslide victory for incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP). The BJP secured a majority in the lower house with 302 seats. Modi joins Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in achieving a fresh mandate to craft his country’s foreign policy for the foreseeable future. In this RPI Policy Alert, we survey the Rising Powers’ response to the outcome of the Indian elections.

 

INDIA

In his victory speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed his intent to strengthen India: “For the next five years, every Indian will have to pledge to transform India into a strong nation. The mission will require the same spirit as the one witnessed during the freedom struggle. We can make India a strong nation by 2022, before we completed 75 years of Independence.”

• Describing the election as a “mandate for continuity,” the liberal Hindustan Times praised Modi’s foreign policy: “[T]he Modi government’s foreign policy, especially with regard to important powers, deserves praise. It navigated a complex international dynamic between conflicting powers — for instance, between the United States (US) and Russia, the US and Iran, or Saudi Arabia and Iran — while managing to keep good ties with all of them. This deftness should continue.”
• In an editorial, the center-right Times of India took note of the snub against Pakistan by the lack of invitation to Prime Minister Imran Khan to Modi’s swearing-in ceremony.
• The conservative Daily Pioneer hailed Modi’s past diplomatic success, but noted there was more to be done: “The new Government also needs to work hard to formulate a clear foreign policy, especially with an eye on the neighbourhood. […] Undoubtedly, our relations with the US, China, Japan, European Union and other powerful nations and blocks have shown marked improvement. This policy needs successful upgrading to position us as a superpower in the making.”
• C. Raja Mohan, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, advocated for the Modi government to pursue stronger ties with Taiwan as part of its foreign policy in an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express: “What the bilateral relationship now needs is high-level political attention in Delhi to make things happen and quickly. Expanding the engagement with Taiwan can’t be a tactical game; it should be an important part of Delhi’s effort to come to terms with all corners of Greater China that looms so large over India’s future.”
• Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research, described the re-election as “a fresh mandate for change” in an article for the liberal Hindustan Times: “The new government’s most pressing challenges relate to internal and external security, including a deepening strategic nexus between China and Pakistan — a dangerous combination of an ascendant great power and an implacably hostile neighbour. New Delhi also needs to effectively counter Chinese inroads in its maritime backyard and in countries long symbiotically tied to India.”
• Yahwant Raj, US correspondent for the Hindustan Times, called for Modi to address trade relations with the United States in the wake of its ongoing trade war with China: “Trade has been one of the most intractable differences dogging relations between the two countries, defying the growing convergence that generally defines the relationship. And knowing how focused President Trump is on trade — and he has signalled his irritation by repeatedly raising the issue of Harley-Davidson — Prime Minister Modi might use his new and massive mandate to resolve these issues.”

 

CHINA

Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a message of congratulations to Prime Minister Modi: “Thanks to the joint efforts of the two sides, China-India relations are gaining strong momentum in recent years, and the two countries maintain sound coordination and cooperation on such major issues as promoting world multipolarization and economic globalization, and safeguarding multilateralism. I attach great importance to the development of China-India relations, and stand ready to work with you to ensure bilateral relations advance in the right direction, enhance political mutual trust, expand practical cooperation, and continuously uplift the closer development partnership between the two countries.”

• The nationalist Global Times contributor Li Qingqing praised Modi’s policies as being generally sound, and expressed hope for the continuation of his efforts to improve ties with China: “Modi’s reelection benefits the continuity of his policies toward China and the two countries’ mutual trust. India is China’s important neighbor and the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative has created beneficial results in South Asia. We hope New Delhi can join in the progress and work together with Beijing for the development of India and the region.”
• The independent South China Morning Post echoed this optimism with an eye for the potential economic gains for improved relations: “With the election behind, the economy is bound to become a pressing issue for Modi and China has an important role to play. There is much scope for boosting trade and investment and joining the belt and road will provide much-needed infrastructure and jobs. There is every reason for China and India to move closer.”

 

RUSSIA

According to the Kremlin’s press service, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Modi over the telephone to offer his congratulations, and the two leaders “confirmed their readiness to fully contribute to the strengthening of friendship between the people of Russia and the people of India and the development of privileged strategic partnership, as well as to continue closely coordinating their activities on the international stage.”

• In an interview with state-owned TASS, Alexei Kupriyanov of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations offered his analysis of what’s to come in India-Russia relations.
• Government-funded RT featured an op-ed by Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, that provides an overview of his expectations for Modi’s second-term foreign policy with an eye for how India is navigating its ties between China, Russia, and the US.

 

JAPAN

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offered a congratulatory message to Modi and “stated that he would like to closely work with Prime Minister Modi hand in hand toward strengthening Japan-India relations and realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

• Although the centrist Japan Times critiqued Modi’s apparent fanning of Hindu nationalism, it praised the Prime Minister’s foreign policy on the whole:  “His 360-degree diplomacy embraces not just Japan but also the United States, Australia, Southeast Asia, China and Russia, as well as Iran. It is, in many ways, more of the same after his first term — now, however, Modi should do it better.”

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.