Policy Alert #218 | December 1, 2020

Against the rising level of COVID infections around the world, November has been an eventful month for multilateral diplomatic engagements. Leaders and representatives of Rising Powers met virtually at a slew of international summits, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summits on November 10 and 30, the East Asia Summit (EAS) on November 14, the signing of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the sideline of ASEAN Summit on November 15, the Brazil-Russia-India- China-South Africa (BRICS) on November 17, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on November 20, and the G20 Summit on November 21.

In this Policy Alert, we highlight the Rising Powers’ most notable reactions to the outcomes of the busiest diplomatic season this year in November.

China

At the SCO summit on November 10, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated China’s firm opposition to “interference by external forces in the domestic affairs” while also warning against unilateralism and calling for more multilateral cooperation: “The international community now faces a major test with choices to be made between multilateralism and unilateralism, openness and seclusion, cooperation and confrontation.”

After the signing of RCEP, the world’s largest free trade agreement including 15 participating countries and accounting for about 30% of global GDP, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang praised the agreement as “a monumental achievement in East Asian regional cooperation, but more important, a victory of multilateralism and free trade.” At the APEC summit, President Xi welcomed the signing of RCEP and announced that China “will favorably consider joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).”

• An editorial from the state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times suggests that India would benefit from more economic cooperation among SCO member states: “If India can put aside its political differences with some member states and promote economic exchanges within the multilateral framework, there will still be considerable room for economic cooperation between India and other SCO member states.”
• A commentary article in South China Morning Post, an independent newspaper based in Hong Kong, warns that the signing of RCEP, which is expected to cut as much as 90% of tariffs among its member states, is likely to generate a severe impact on the economy of Taiwan: “[T]he economic ministry has acknowledged that Taiwan’s petrochemical, steel and machinery industries may be affected by the trade agreement…The RCEP trade deal is also a blow to Taiwan’s ‘New Southbound Policy’ which has sought to reduce the island’s economic reliance on mainland China by actively boosting engagement with many of the very countries that have now joined the RCEP.”
• In an op-ed for Global Times, Jorge Heine, a professor at Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies and a Wilson Center global fellow, foresees that a potential integration between RCEP and CPTPP will bring Asia-Pacific to the center of world affairs: “Asia and Australasia are moving ahead with regional economic integration, while the North Atlantic countries continue to wallow in protectionism and arcane disputes about how to finalize Brexit…[W]e could look at the possibility of a merger between the RCEP and the TPP11, that would be a real game-changer.”

India

At the SCO summit on November 10, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the linkage between the challenge of territorial disputes and the prospect of economic cooperation: “[I]t is unfortunate that repeated attempts are being made to unnecessarily bring bilateral issues to the SCO agenda, which violate the SCO Charter and Shanghai Spirit…India believes that to enhance connectivity it is important that we move forward while respecting one another’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

At the East Asia Summit, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar commented on the importance of adhering to international law and respecting territorial integrity while condemning “actions and incidents that erode trust” in the South China Sea. A day after the signing of RCEP Jaishankar criticized free trade agreements without making a direct reference to RCEP: “In the name of openness, we have allowed subsidized products and unfair production advantages from abroad to prevail…The effect of past trade agreements has been to deindustrialize some sectors. The consequences of future ones would lock us into global commitments, many of them not to our advantage.”

• In an op-ed in the liberal The Indian Express, Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to ASEAN, expects that under Chinese pressure, ASEAN is unlikely to produce a coordinated effort to address security issues in the region, and that India should pursue its interests in the Indo-Pacific region bilaterally: “The India-Japan-Australia and India-Australia-France agreements to pursue value chains in the region can draw sustenance from these documents and move ahead with interested ASEAN countries since, like China, India too will now put priority to bilateral relationships with select ASEAN countries.”
• In an op-ed for The Tribune, Shyam Saran, former Indian Foreign Secretary and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, warns that India’s conservative policies toward multilateral trade agreements could undermine its overall Indo-Pacific strategy: “We have looked upon free trade and other regional economic arrangements through the prism of imports into India. The aspect of India’s market access to other large markets is often ignored…An Indo-Pacific strategy without a policy of deep engagement with ASEAN and East Asian countries would lack credibility. It cannot just be premised on closer security arrangements with friendly partners in the region. It must have a strong and vibrant economic dimension as well.”

Japan

At the East Asia Summit, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga expressed concerns about the territorial disputes in the region: “In the East China Sea, activities that violate Japan’s sovereignty continue, and in the South China Sea, there have been actions that increase tensions such as ballistic missile launches and further militarization of the features, and claims that are inconsistent with the UNCLOS.”

At the APEC summit a few days later, Prime Minister Suga restated Japan’s interest in further advancing free trade in the region based on the foundation of RCEP and CPTPP and reiterated the call to establish Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, a Japanese vision to integrate all 21 APEC member economies.

• In an op-ed for center-right The Japan Times, Kuni Miyake, President of the Foreign Policy Institute, research director at Canon Institute for Global Studies, and a special adviser to Prime Minister Suga’s Cabinet, casts doubts to the prospect of China joining CPTPP and assures that China’s participation, though highly unlikely, would not pose a threat to Japan: “[T]o be accepted as a new member, China needs to fundamentally change its restrictive trade practices, laws and regulations…If Beijing wishes to join a new TPP, it is welcome to join after it changes its current trade regulations to meet CPTPP requirements…If China transforms itself into a real free trading nation without “Chinese characteristics,” its inclusion in the group is always welcome.”
• An editorial from the progressive Asahi Shimbun expresses disappointment on India’s absence in RCEP and proposes that Japan should encourage the U.S. to return to the path of international cooperation: “Japan should continue tenacious efforts to persuade India to enroll itself by supporting the country’s efforts to nurture domestic industries…Japan should do more to help restore the WTO’s ability to establish and enforce international rules by pressing the United States to return to the policy of pursuing and respecting multilateral trade frameworks.”

Russia

At the SCO summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the rising level of security cooperation among SCO member states and hoped that the trend will continue to develop: “[F]oreign policy and military cooperation between the SCO states has intensified significantly…We consider this undertaking to be useful and hope that such extended meetings of natural partners will become regular.” In addition, President Putin also castigated foreign meddling in SCO member states: “Belarusians are entitled to a chance to sort things out calmly and take the necessary steps on their own. The same is true of the recent events in Kyrgyzstan and the political struggle in Moldova.”

• A commentary article in the nationalist Pravda Report proposes that international organizations like the SCO could counterbalance the potential hawkish policies against Russia under the upcoming Biden administration: “Russia cannot resist this onslaught on the East single-handedly without joining efforts with other Eurasian states that have no wish to find themselves among the powerless vassals of the United States…In the context of deep transformation of international relations and associated risks, the SCO appears as one of the important pillars of a new world order based on the rule of international law, equal and indivisible security, respect for civilizational diversity and sovereignty.”
• In an interview with state-owned Sputnik News, economist Michael Roberts argues that the potential trade gains with RCEP member states will compensate for China’s deteriorating economic relations with the U.S.: “The gains in trade and income from the RCEP over the next decade will go a considerable way in compensating China for the losses in trade and incomes from the U.S.-China tariff and technology war…We can expect to see trade between the US and China drop sharply over the next decade. That reflects the growing nationalist reaction in China to what it perceives as a pernicious attack on its economic and political interests by America.”