Policy Alert #246 | February 28, 2022

On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognized the independence of the southeastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Known collectively as Donbas, the two territories have been led by pro-Russia separatists for nearly a decade. On February 24, Putin ordered a “special military operation” in Ukraine based on request from the heads of the Donbas regions to carry out what he called “peacekeeping functions.” Putin has invoked the idea of Donbas’s distinctive regional identity as a basis to “defend” its Russian-speaking people from a supposedly intolerant Ukraine. However, Russian forces continued to advance beyond Donbas into some of Ukraine’s largest cities. 

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba declared Putin had “launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.” Russia’s actions have been swiftly condemned by several nations, which have imposed devastating packages of sanctions and other economic measures to punish Moscow. The European Union for the first time will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons, in a show of support for Ukraine. The EU is also banning Russian planes from its airspace. Following pressure from the UK government, British energy giant BP said it would exit its nearly 20% stake in Russian government-controlled oil producer Rosneft. Western governments joined by Japan said they would cut off a number of Russian banks from the SWIFT network, an international payment system. 

Citing “aggressive statements” by NATO and tough financial sanctions, Putin announced that he had put his nuclear deterrence forces into high alert. On February 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed Ukraine and Russia would conduct the first diplomatic talks, with delegations from both countries meeting at the Ukrainian border with Belarus. The two countries would meet near the Pripyat River “without preconditions.” 

 

Russia

Putin has made clear that Russia would never accept Ukraine’s membership of NATO, calling this a direct threat to Russian security and rejecting Western assurances that there were no plans for this anytime soon. In a televised speech on February 21, Putin claimed “Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood.” Putin warned that Ukraine could develop its own nuclear weapons, calling this a “real threat,” claiming that the West was using Ukraine as a “theater of potential warfare” against Russia.

According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moscow is ready to hold talks at any moment once the Ukrainian Armed Forces lay down their arms. “No one plans to attack and oppress them, let them return to their families, and let us give the Ukrainian people a chance to decide their future,” Lavrov stated. At the same time, he emphasized that Russia had always called for negotiations. “There is no shortage of talks…,” Lavrov stressed, “But this time, it just went beyond all limits because it was accompanied by a continuous deterioration of the Russian-speaking population’s situation in Ukraine.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that the Russian Armed Forces were not delivering strikes against Ukrainian cities. The ministry emphasized that the Ukrainian military infrastructure was being destroyed by precision weapons and there was no threat to civilians.

• An editorial for The Moscow Times, an independent newspaper based in Moscow, highlights Russia’s praise for India’s “independent and balanced” position after Delhi abstained from a UN Security Council vote that condemned Moscow’s “aggression” against Ukraine. India, along with China and the UAE, did not vote on the resolution.

 

China

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying called the US the “culprit” of current tensions surrounding Ukraine. According to Chunying, “the US has been sending weapons to Ukraine… creating panic” while, in stark contrast, “China has all along called on all parties… to resolve issues through negotiation and consultation.”

Chunying underscored the necessity of understanding “the whole story” on the Ukraine issue and the need to properly address each other’s legitimate security concerns. “Certain countries should ask themselves,” Chunying stated, “When the US drove five waves of NATO expansion eastward all the way to Russia’s doorstep and deployed advanced offensive strategic weapons in breach of its assurances to Russia, did it ever think about the consequences of pushing a big country to the wall?” 

When asked if China would impose sanctions against Russia, Chunying responded: “Our position is that sanctions are never fundamentally effective means to solve problems. We consistently oppose all illegal unilateral sanctions.” 

• The state directed China Daily emphasized the Chinese Ministry’s warnings to Taiwan politicians against using the Ukraine crisis to draw attention to the Taiwan question and make provocations for “independence.” 
• In an op-ed for the nationalist Global Times, Zhang Hong, associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, calls the West’s diplomacy towards Russia a failure: “The West decided to treat some of Russia’s concerns with indifference, neglect, and even arrogance.” 

 

India

India has refused to publicly condemn Russia’s military actions and has downplayed “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity” rhetoric it usually adopts to criticize China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific. India abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution demanding that Russia cease its actions in Ukraine. “We have not supported what Russia has done. We have abstained. It is the right thing to do under the circumstances,” reasoned G. Parthasarthy, a retired Indian diplomat. India’s abstention does not mean support for Moscow but reflects New Delhi’s reliance on its Cold War partner for energy, weapons and support in conflicts with neighbors.

Notably, more than 50% of India’s arms imports is Russian and it remains a key strategic partner to India. India is also exploring ways to set up a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow on New Delhi of Western sanctions imposed on Russia. For example, Indian officials are concerned that vital supplies of fertilizer from Russia could be disrupted as sanctions intensify, threatening India’s vast farm sector.

• In the business focused The Economic Times, Sriparna Pathak, assistant professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, India, writes that India is caught between a rock and a hard place on Ukraine: “While US and Indian interests are the same in the Indo-Pacific, India will have to balance the diplomatic tightrope between Washington and Moscow and seek a resolution by diplomatic means to the conflict now escalated to war.”

• An editorial by the liberal Indian Express emphasizes the need for the US and Europe to scale down the conflict through diplomacy: “Putin’s concerns about the expansion of NATO and the lop-sided security architecture of Europe are not without basis. It is both unreasonable and irresponsible of the Western alliance to dismiss these concerns.” 
• In an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express, Pratap Mehta, president of Centre Policy Research, New Delhi, believes that the world must do more to put pressure on Russia: “The brutal truth is that despite outrage in the West, the appetite for doing what it takes to put pressure on Putin is not yet in evidence.”

 

Japan

Japan condemned Russia’s military actions “in the strongest terms,” according to an official statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa claimed Russia’s actions “clearly infringe upon the Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a serious violation of international law prohibiting use of force, and are a grave breach of the UN Charter.” 

Japan said it would join the US and European Union in plans to cut off Russian banks from the SWIFT financial network and in sanctions on Russian officials including President Putin. Japan was the last member of the G7 nations to join the SWIFT sanctions. 

Japan’s relations with Moscow have been shaped by its reliance on Russia for its energy needs. For Japan, the most immediate impact of the crisis is likely to be seen in rising fuel prices.  Japan has about 240 days’ worth of crude oil reserves and reserves of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to last two to three weeks. Russia accounted for 9% of Japan’s total LNG imports in 2021 and 4% of total crude imports. President Kishida said Japan would do the utmost to limit the economic impact to its resource-poor nation, including by ensuring a stable supply of energy.