Policy Alert #235 | August 30, 2021
Just last month during a White House press conference on July 8, U.S. President Joe Biden rejected the notion of a Taliban takeover being “inevitable.”[1] But on August 15, the Taliban seized control of the country’s capital Kabul as the government collapsed and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country.[2] The rapid takeover of the country by the Taliban caught the Biden administration off-guard and set in motion a chaotic evacuation in which some 2,500 American troops attempted to secure the Kabul airport.[3] On August 16, during a UN Security Council Briefing on Afghanistan, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda-Thomas Greenfield urged nations that “together, we must do everything we can to help Afghanistan, to help Afghans who wish to leave and seek refuge. We in the international community stand ready to assist them.[4]
On August 24, the Group of Seven agreed on conditions for recognizing and dealing with a future Taliban-led Afghan government, but President Biden refused to accede to the appeals of G7 leaders to extend the August 31 U.S. withdrawal date to allow more time for evacuations.[5] Two days later, over 100 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members were killed in a suicide attack carried out by the ISIS-K, the Afghan affiliate of the Islamic State, at the Kabul airport. [6] President Biden denounced the attack, vowing, “To those who carried out this attack, as well as anyone who wishes America harm, know this: We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay.”[7]
Going forward, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a press briefing on August 25 remarked, “If a future government upholds the basic rights of the Afghan people, if it makes good on its commitments to ensure that Afghanistan cannot be used as a launching pad for terrorist attacks directed against us and our allies and partners, and in the first instance, if it makes good on its commitments to allow people who want to leave Afghanistan to leave, that’s a government we can work with. If it doesn’t, we will make sure that we use every appropriate tool at our disposal to isolate that government, and as I said before, Afghanistan will be a pariah.”[8]
In this Policy Alert, we examine the rising powers’ reactions to the Taliban taking power in Afghanistan as the U.S. leaves and how they view the future.
India
Indian officials have avoided commenting on the Taliban directly in public. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ communications focused mostly on evacuation efforts for its embassy personnel in Kabul.[9] On August 16, India’s ambassador to the UN, TS Tirumurti, noted the situation in Afghanistan had dramatically changed since the last Security Council meeting 10 days ago, and was of “great concern” to New Delhi.[10] He reiterated India’s call for respecting the rights of Afghan women, children and minorities, and added, “If it is ensured that the territory of Afghanistan is not used by terrorist groups to threaten or attack any other country, then Afghanistan’s neighbours and the region would feel safer.”[11]
On August 20, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke virtually while inaugurating projects for the Somnath temple, saying “empires created out of terror can dominate for some time, but their existence is never permanent as they cannot suppress humanity forever.”[12] On August 24, Modi spoke via telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the unfolding situation in Afghanistan. They expressed the view that it was important for the two strategic partners to work together and instructed their senior officials to remain in touch.[13] At an all-party briefing on August 26, Minister of External Affairs of India S Jaishankar noted the crisis in Afghanistan was “extremely critical” and reportedly said the Taliban “have not kept their word given in Doha.” He noted that India, at the moment, had adopted a “wait and watch” policy over the chaos in Afghanistan.[14]
Soon after the Kabul suicide blasts, India officially condemned the attack, adding that the “attacks reinforce the need for the world to stand unitedly against terrorism and all those who provide sanctuaries to terrorists.”[15]
- In an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express, Sharat Sabharwal, former High Commissioner to Pakistan, believes that India must measure the Taliban by its actions and wait for an opening: “Going forward, if the Taliban build an inclusive and stable system, they may be able to win international recognition. If they stick to their old ways, they may end up generating opposition, violence and instability in the country.”
- In an op-ed for the pro-BJP government The Pioneer, Ashok K Mehta, retired Lt General of the Indian Army, criticizes a “wait and watch” foreign policy: “It is impossible to shape Afghanistan’s environment by “wait and watch,” India’s cardinal strategy of strategic patience or masterly inactivity for most of the last two decades. India is stuck with a discredited America but has a Tajik-Pashtun friend in Abdullah Abdullah, the head of High Council on Peace and Reconciliation who interacted with the Taliban intermittently for two years. He may become part of the interim Government and India’s foot in the door.”
China
The Chinese Embassy in Kabul is one of the few still operating normally, illustrating China’s advantageous position. On July 28, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had met with an Afghan Taliban delegation in Tianjin. After the Taliban takeover, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs sought to highlight security concerns and reassurance from the Afghan Taliban that they will not allow any force, especially the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), to use Afghan territory to “engage in acts detrimental to China.”[16] In a meeting of the UN Security Council on August 16, China’s deputy UN Ambassador Geng Shuang was even more emphatic, “Afghanistan must never again become a haven for terrorists. We hope that the Taliban… make a clean break with the terrorist organizations.”[17]
Foreign Minister Wang Yi also commented on the U.S. withdrawal, calling it “hasty” and concluding that it “marks the failure of the U.S. policy toward Afghanistan.”[18] Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying did not give a clear answer as to whether the Chinese government would recognize the Afghan Taliban government. However, Chunying noted China’s readiness to “develop good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation” and pointed out that “The Afghan Taliban said on multiple occasions that it hopes to grow sound relations with China, and looks forward to China’s participation in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development.”[19]
On August 18, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian responded when asked under what conditions will China recognize an Afghan Taliban government, “It is a customary international practice that the recognition of a government comes after its formation. We hope that Afghanistan can form an open, inclusive and broadly representative government that echoes the widely shared aspirations of its own people and the international community.”[20] After the explosion outside the Kabul airport on August 26, Zhao Lijian stated, “China is shocked at and strongly condemns the explosions near Kabul airport which caused heavy casualties.”[21]
- In an op-ed for state-owned nationalist tabloid Global Times, Wang Jin, associate professor at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at Northwest University in China, believes that the Afghan’s government’s collapse undermines the credibility of the US: “The US did reflect upon itself by realizing that intervening in Afghanistan was a mistake. But such reflection did not prevent the US from making mistakes again and again… bringing more security challenges to Afghanistan and the international community.”
- In an op-ed for South China Morning Post, a newspaper based in Hong Kong, well-known journalist Minnie Chan, suggests how the Afghan crisis drew China and Russia closer on Central Asian stability: “The flurry of military exercises comes as the two nations are drawn closer by a shared rivalry with the US and worries about stability in Central Asia in view of the worsening security situation in Afghanistan… now compounded by the Isis-K bombings in Kabul.”
Japan
On August 23, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga held a national security council meeting on the situation in Afghanistan, after which the Japanese Self-Defense Forces began sending aircraft to Afghanistan to evacuate Japanese nationals and local staff working for the Japanese Embassy.[22]
After his meeting with G7 leaders, the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan would contribute humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, while he also pointed out that the international community needs to monitor Taliban’s behavior in respecting human rights, including the rights of women and to prevent the country from becoming a hotbed of terror.
- In an op-ed for the center-right The Japan Times, Kuni Miyake, President of the Foreign Policy Institute, Research Director at Canon Institute for Global Studies, and special adviser to Suga’s Cabinet, argues forcefully that the failure of nation-building in Afghanistan should not deter the west from promoting political change in China: “What we have witnessed in Afghanistan over the past several centuries seems to tell us that the noble efforts of the west to modernize or democratize an underdeveloped nation in haste could backfire in the end… China is no Afghanistan and, therefore, has no excuse. It’s time for Beijing to change its authoritarian or dictatorial regime into one that practices more civilized democratic and rule-based governance. If the west can afford making efforts to democratize a developing nation, our target must be China, not the Taliban in Afghanistan.”
- An editorial from the liberal Asahi Shimbun urges the U.S. to delay its Afghan exit in order to ensure all Afghan refugees are able to escape the country: “Washington declared war to defeat Muslim extremists, but it has only given birth to new extremist groups. U.S. forces are now rushing to leave Afghanistan, almost as if they are being chased out by groups hell-bent on attacking Americans… Hordes of people fearing for their lives under Taliban rule remain in the country. It is vital for the U.S. government to send a clear message of its commitment to ensure that all those seeking to escape from the Taliban can leave the country… Aside from working on ways to build a new regime, it is urgent to secure the safety of citizens.”
Russia
On August 16, Russian U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said the Taliban’s quick defeat of government forces “took everyone by surprise.”[24] “Currently we believe that there is no point in panicking… we urge all Afghan parties to refrain from hostilities and to foster a settlement peacefully,” Nebenzia stated at the UN Security Council.[25]
Following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov, Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, praised the Taliban’s conduct, saying “The situation is peaceful and… better than it was under Ashraf Ghani.”[26] Zamir Kabulov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special representative on Afghanistan, claimed, “It’s not for nothing that we’ve been establishing contacts with the Taliban movement for the last seven years,” reflecting efforts by Russia to deepen already well-established ties with the Taliban while stopping short of recognizing them as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.[27]
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov underlined his support for a “nationwide dialogue that will lead to forming a representative government which, with the support of the citizens of Afghanistan, will proceed to develop agreements on political arrangements in this multi-ethnic country.”[28] On August 19, although not expressing approval of the change of government in Afghanistan, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed that the Taliban’s control is “a reality that the international community should certainly be mindful of when building relations with Afghanistan.”[29] However, August 25 marked a shift in Russia’s stance on Afghanistan, after the attacks outside the Kabul airport. The Kremlin, citing the presence of Islamic State in Afghanistan as well as the Taliban, said that the terrorist threat was “very high.”[30]
- In an op-ed for The Moscow Times, an independent newspaper based in Moscow, Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, warns of the challenges to Russia and Central Asia after the U.S. withdrawal: “For Russia and the Central Asian countries, it is the refugee flows and the subversive transborder activity of IS-like organizations that constitute the main problem…Russia will need to do all it can to prevent extremist incursions across Afghanistan’s northern border.”
[1]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan/
[2]https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/16/middleeast/taliban-control-afghanistan-explained-intl-hnk/index.html
[3]https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan/2021/04/13/918c3cae-9beb-11eb-8a83-3bc1fa69c2e8_story.html
[4] https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14604.doc.htm
[5] https://apnews.com/article/europe-afghanistan-g-7-summit-13631be5beba847935719ec4d8a4d5ce
[6] https://apnews.com/article/bombings-evacuations-kabul-bb32ec2b65b54ec24323e021c9b4a553
[7] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/26/world/afghanistan-taliban-biden-news
[8] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-afghanistan/
[9]https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/34189/Press_Release_on_the_current_situation_in_Afghanistan
[10]https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/region-will-feel-safer-if-afghan-soil-isn-t-used-by-terror-groups-india-at-unsc-meet-101629137847306.html
[11]https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/region-will-feel-safer-if-afghan-soil-isn-t-used-by-terror-groups-india-at-unsc-meet-101629137847306.html
[12]https://www.india.com/news/world/india-will-soon-know-talibans-capabilities-to-run-afghanistan-affairs-says-taliban-leader-shahabuddin-dilwar-4915702/
[13]https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/34199/Telephonic_Conversation_between_Prime_Minister_Shri_Narendra_Modi_and_President_of_the_Russian_Federation_HE_Mr_Vladimir_Putin
[14]https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jaishankar-says-afghan-situation-critical-evacuation-priority-at-all-party-meet-101629958228736.html
[15]https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/34203/India_strongly_condemns_the_bomb_blasts_in_Kabul
[16] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1895706.shtml
[17]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-chief-urges-security-council-protect-human-rights-afghanistan-2021-08-16/
[18] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1895706.shtml
[19] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1899785.shtml
[20] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1900256.shtml
[21] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1902496.shtml
[22] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/08/23/national/afghanistan-japanese-evacuation/
[24]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-chief-urges-security-council-protect-human-rights-afghanistan-2021-08-16/
[25]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-chief-urges-security-council-protect-human-rights-afghanistan-2021-08-16/
[26]https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-kabul-seems-safer-under-taliban-than-it-was-under-ghani-2021-08-16/
[27]https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-kabul-seems-safer-under-taliban-than-it-was-under-ghani-2021-08-16/
[28] https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4842045
[29]https://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/spokesman/briefings/-/asset_publisher/D2wHaWMCU6Od/content/id/4842371#22
[30]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-evacuate-more-than-500-citizens-afghanistan-interfax-2021-08-25/
