Policy Alert #180 | January 10, 2019

After a tumultuous 2018 that saw the beginning of a trade war, US withdrawals from treaties on nuclear missiles and Iran, and historic summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the Rising Powers are gearing up for another eventful year. China is already facing cross-strait tensions with Taiwan, while Japan prepares for a summit with Russia later this month and India braces for passionate general elections later this year. In this Rising Powers Policy Alert, we sample the Rising Powers’ resolutions, forecasts, and concerns for 2019.

CHINA

In his New Year’s Speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment to his country’s security and development initiatives abroad: “Looking at the world at large, we’re facing a period of major change never seen in a century. No matter what these changes bring, China will remain resolute and confident in its defense of its national sovereignty and security. And China’s sincerity and goodwill to safeguard world peace and promote common development will remain unchanged. We will continue to push ahead with the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and continue to advocate for the development of a community of shared future for mankind. And we will work tirelessly for a more prosperous and beautiful world.” The previous year marked the anniversary of China’s “opening up” in 1978, and 2019 brings the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China under the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the 40th anniversary of the issuance of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan” from the Standing Committee of the Fifth National People’s Congress in 1979 that ceased routine bombardments of the island.

Across the strait, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen addressed the issue of reunification head on and ignited fury from the mainland with her New Year’s address: “I am calling on China that it must face the reality of the existence of the Republic of China (Taiwan); it must respect the commitment of the 23 million people of Taiwan to freedom and democracy; it must handle cross-strait differences peacefully, on a basis of equality; and it must be governments or government-authorized agencies that engage in negotiations. These ‘four musts’ are the most basic and crucial foundations that will determine whether cross-strait relations develop in a positive direction.” Tsai’s bold statement appeared to be bolstered by US President Donald Trump’s signing of the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018 (ARIA) a day earlier, which reiterates the US’s commitment to Taiwan and includes a provision that encourages “regular transfers of defense articles to Taiwan.”  Xi subsequently responded in his speech at an event commemorating the 40th anniversary of the issuance of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan”: “We are willing to create broad space for peaceful unification, but will leave no room for any form of separatist activities.”

• The People’s Daily, the official media outlet for the CPC, marked the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 with guest op-eds from former diplomats commemorating the anniversary of China’s opening up, such as former Dutch ambassador Dirk Jan van den Berg, former US Assistant Secretary of State and former US ambassador J. Stapleton Roy, and former Malaysian ambassador Datuk Abdul Majid Ahmad Khan.
• The state-sponsored China Daily was optimistic about the future of relations with the US as negotiations to end the trade war continue: “As long as both sides bear in mind the larger picture of bilateral ties and opt for dialogue and negotiations to resolve their differences, there is no reason why their relations cannot continue the general trend of increasing engagement that has benefited both countries over the past 40 years. […] It is to be hoped the two sides can now demonstrate the political wisdom that will enable them to deliver on the welcome sense of optimism that prevails as we enter 2019.” In response to Tsai’s defiance, the Daily darkly warned that residents of Taiwan should “pay heed to how Tsai, in her refusal to accept reality, is willing to let them pay the price while she and those similarly inclined negligently seek to live out a fantasy.”
• The nationalist Global Times countered assertions that China’s 2019 would be dictated by the outcome of trade negotiations with the US by arguing that those with such opinions “must not overlook th[e] possibility, where China would have no choice but to strive for development by exploring internal driving forces and effectively render any pressure from the US irrelevant. The Chinese people must be aware that the country has already bid farewell to the era when Beijing’s decisions were defined by the whims of international pressure.” Regarding the Taiwan issue, the Times asserted that reunification is inevitable: “If the Chinese mainland was determined to resort to force, the Taiwan question would have ended long ago. Peaceful reunification is based on goodwill, and it has turned into solid confidence and specific policies as the Chinese mainland strengthens its power.”
• The independent, Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post expects 2019 to be “another roller-coaster year of global brinkmanship” given the uncertainty of US-China trade negotiations and the British exit from the European Union. “A failure in the first would test global business and investor confidence; failure in the second would be a leap into the unknown for Britain, the world’s fifth largest economy. […] Trade conflict, fear of China’s rise and a surge in populist intolerance and nationalism could fuel dangerous times,” the Post warned.
• South China Morning Post featured an op-ed by political consultant Alice Wu who juxtaposed President Xi’s call for Taiwan to adopt a “one country, two systems” framework against the reality of its implementation in Hong Kong: “Hong Kong is not exactly a shining example of ‘one country, two systems’. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has been keeping count of the alleged instances of China failing to honour Hong Kong’s Basic Law, so Xi’s mention of Hong Kong was never going to convince Taiwan. […] And yet, ‘one country, two systems’ remains the take-it-or-leave-it solution to the Taiwan Problem.”

JAPAN

In his New Year’s Reflection, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe outlined his country’s busy diplomatic schedule for 2019: “This year we will […] take on immense challenges on the diplomatic front. As we encounter major turning points such as the U.S.-North Korea summit meeting, Japan-Russia peace treaty negotiations, and the arrival of a new era in Japan-China relations, we will resolutely advance a total reassessment of Japan’s postwar diplomacy. Japan holds the presidency of the G20, and we will welcome to Osaka President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping, and other top leaders from around the world. This will truly be a year in which Japan shines on the world’s center stage.” Editorials in Japan reflected not only on the last year, but the whole of the Heisei period, which began in January 1989 with the ascendance of the current emperor, who will abdicate to his son in April 2019.

• The left-leaning Mainichi Shimbun cynically juxtaposed the current state of international relations against those at end of the Cold War in 1989: “With the advent of the Trump administration, consideration for minorities or the needy has disappeared and behavior driven by naked desire has surged to the forefront. Some people, with no regard for the truth, began to push for ‘alternative facts,’ and assert that news reporting that is inconvenient to them is ‘fake news.’ [..I]f Washington, Beijing and Moscow compete to seek hegemony, the world will be torn apart and deteriorate into a vicious cycle of confrontation and hatred. […] We would like to reconfirm the ideal of coexistence, and find a way leading to reconciliation and cooperation.”
• Kuni Miyake, President of the Foreign Policy Institute and Research Director at Canon Institute for Global Studies, offered his geopolitical predictions for 2019 in an op-ed for the centrist Japan Times. Miyake argued that China will continue to resist making concession to the US and that India will not become a major US ally. “While New Deli [sic] considers China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative as a means to contain India, it may not want to contain China with the U.S. India is mainly concerned about China’s naval activities in the Indian Ocean,” he explained. As for Japan, Miyake does not expect to see any major political changes.
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun described Japan’s diplomacy as “entering a difficult phase” due not only to tensions between the US and China, but also upcoming negotiations with Russia and North Korea. The Yomiuri thus voiced its support for the revision of the Japanese constitution to allow greater flexibility in the use of the Self-Defense Forces, which are presently limited by Article 9 of the current constitution: “Abe sets a goal of enforcing a new constitution in 2020. […] The international situation and Japan’s social system have both undergone dramatic transformations since the immediate postwar period in which the Constitution was established. It is reasonable to aim for the establishment of a constitution to fit a new era.”

 

INDIA

Prime Minister Narendra Modi opted not to issue a formal address for the New Year, but instead tweeted well wishes. His hour-and-a-half long New Year’s Day interview with news outlet ANI was largely seen as the first shots in campaigning for India’s 2019 general election, which will take place in April and May. In the interview, Modi defended himself against criticisms of his “photo-op” diplomacy: “I try that India’s voice reaches the world. I try to meet maximum people in my trips. Earlier, when PM used to go, nobody used to notice at the place they would arrive, even the place from where they departed from. My visits are noticed because I interact with people and take decisions.” The Prime Minister also countered allegations that he was being “deceived” by China, given the border skirmish at Doklam last year despite his frequent meetings with Chinese President Xi: “India should be judged on the basis of its response in Doklam. And nothing has happened with India that can be considered as deceit. But our principled position has been that we want friendly relations with neighbours. All Indian governments have maintained this.”

• The pro-government Daily Pioneer’s New Year’s Day editorial took up the issue of the coming election: “One thing is for certain, this will be a vicious and extremely negative election campaign, possibly with calls to violence on religious and ethnic lines, much of it fired up by irresponsible people masquerading as public leaders and maybe even some journalists. It is up for all of us to maintain civility and decorum in the public discourse, possibly by switching off news television and taking with a large dose of salt the lies and misinformation spread on social media and the internet.”

 

• The Hindu, a left-leaning newspaper, featured a political cartoon on New Year’s Day that depicted Prime Minister Modi’s slowly deflating “Achche Din” (“good days”) balloon landing him on the jagged earth of 2019 in reference to his prospects in the coming election.

 

• Anil Wadhwa, former ambassador and distinguished fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation public policy think-tank, anticipates that although the US’s newly-passed Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018 (ARIA) defines the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, India, Australia, and Japan as “vital” to “a free and open Indo-Pacific,” “India will move to strengthen relations not only with the US but also with Japan and Australia using a bilateral, rather than a multilateral approach, with emphasis on building its relationship with Japan.”

 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.