Policy Alert #166 | May 29, 2018

The Rising Powers are undoubtedly recovering from whiplash following the off-again-on-again saga of the summit between the US and North Korea scheduled to take place in Singapore on June 12, 2018. Preparations for the Summit soured following a series of ill-timed demonstrations of strength, such as the joint military exercises between the US and South Korea and sabre-rattling rhetoric in North Korea in response, despite acts of goodwill, like North Korea’s demolition of its nuclear test site and US President Donald Trump’s apparent softening of some demands following a meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-In. Both North Korea and the US threatened to pull out of the Summit in recent weeks, but ultimately it was President Trump who announced that the meeting “will not take place” in an open letter to North Korean leader Chairman Kim Jong Un. Following President Trump’s announcement, President Moon met with Chairman Kim in the unscheduled Second Inter-Korean Summit along the border between the two countries and a US delegation met with North Korean officials in Pyongyang. For now, all signs point to the Summit meeting as planned, but analysts in the Rising Powers had tough words for both sides’ role in the drama.

 

SOUTH KOREA

In a press release, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs quoted President Moon’s comments on his discussion with Kim: “Chairman Kim made clear once again his intentions to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, as he did in the Panmunjeom Declaration. He expressed his willingness to work together to promote peace and prosperity as well as to put an end to the history of war and confrontation through the success of a North Korea-United States summit.” The press release also emphasized that North and South Korea had also committed to reconvening high-level talks on June 1.

• The liberal-leaning Korea Times characterized President Trump’s announcement as a “surprise” to “the world,” but expressed hope that the Summit could be salvaged. To do so, the Times called for both sides to meet each other’s non-negotiable demands: “[T]he North should accept the U.S. demand for complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization. Likewise, Washington needs to accommodate Pyongyang’s calls for security guarantees and economic assistance in return for abandoning its nuclear program.” The Times later celebrated President Moon’s sudden, unannounced meeting with Chairman Kim in apparent response to Trump’s announcement: “The consecutive meetings between Moon and Kim give assurance to Koreans that the President is doing a good job in managing inter-Korean relations even under negative circumstances surrounding the peninsula, such as the unforeseen announcement regarding the planned U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore.”
  
• The Hankyoreh, another liberal-leaning outlet, offered glowing reviews of President Moon’s role in getting the Summit “back on track” in two editorials covering his initial meeting with President Trump on May 22nd and his meeting with Chairman Kim following the cancellation announcement on May 25th.
• The Korea Herald responded to the news of Trump’s cancellation with the cautious optimism that diplomacy could overcome nerves: “[W]e look forward to seeing a grand deal come at the last minute. Seoul must resume brokering, and Pyongyang must refrain from tit-for-tat provocative words and deeds.” After Trump’s signalling that the Summit will probably go as planned, the Herald offered a lecture to both leaders: “What both Trump and Kim should realize is that the game they are playing now is about a nuclear crisis and is too important to be swayed by their usual thinking and behavior, not least lack of restraint and rashness. We don’t expect the two men to behave as statesmen, but they could at least be a little more sensible.”
• Following Trump’s announcement, the conservative JoongAng Daily mused that “Brinkmanship has always played a pivotal part in deal-making. Trump knows how to play the game.” The JoongAng suggested “Seoul should mediate and Pyongyang should refrain from tit-for-tat verbal attacks” to revive the Summit. After news of the Summit’s revival, the JoongAng echoed calls for North Korea and the US to mutually meet each other’s non-negotiable terms: “If Pyongyang wants solid assurances of regime security, it must first agree to total denuclearization. The United States also needs to present North Korea with detailed action plans to satisfy its need for regime safety.”
• The conservative Chosun Ilbo, meanwhile, took aim at President Moon’s “repeated” suggestions that the US and South Korea “alter” their previously scheduled joint military exercises to show goodwill toward North Korea and suggestions that the joint exercises be altered or ended if denuclearization is successful: “Of course they should not continue for all eternity if there is no enemy left, but the decision can easily be made once it is certain that South Korea is safe, the North Korean nuclear program has been completely abolished and a peace treaty has been signed.[…] Jettisoning the U.S.-South Korea alliance that has maintained peace for the last 65 years is not a matter to be considered on the spur of the moment.” In response to the cancellation and revival of the Summit, the Chosun Ilbo had harsh words for its own government: “At a time like this, Seoul should stand shoulder to shoulder with Washington in pressuring Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear weapons. Playing the role of a muddling intermediary could have catastrophic consequences.”

CHINA
In response to questions regarding the possibility of the cancellation of the Summit, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang said, “[T]he dialogue and détente on the Korean Peninsula at this point are hard-won, we strongly hope that all relevant parties will cherish that and earnestly speak and act in a way that is conducive to ensuring smooth dialogue and achieving positive outcomes. To this end, it is necessary for all relevant parties, the US and the DPRK in particular, to actively meet each other halfway, send out goodwill, and enhance mutual trust.” After President Trump’s formal announcement of his intention to cancel the Summit, Spokesperson Lu was questioned about the suggestions that China played a role in North Korea’s “change in attitude” that prompted Trump’s action. Spokesperson Lu reiterated China’s positions: “China has always played a positive and constructive role on the Korean Peninsula issue without any ulterior motive at all. China stays committed to the goal of the denuclearization of the Peninsula, upholding the peace and stability on the Peninsula and resolving the Peninsula issue through dialogue and negotiation. This position remains unchanged all along. This is what we said more than 10 years ago and keep saying until today; we said so to the leader of the US as well as of the DPRK. At the same time, the political settlement of the Peninsula nuclear issue through dialogue calls for all the relevant parties, especially the directly concerned parties, to meet each other halfway and send goodwill to each other. Relevant parties shall think about how they are doing in this regard.”

• The state-supported China Daily responded to the news of President Trump’s announcement by supporting continued dialogue: “After 65 years some maneuvering is to be expected, but all parties need to keep in contact and work toward the same goals.” Upon Trump’s “180” on the matter, the Daily called for both sides to remain committed to the Summit’s success: “The momentum for peace on the peninsula has never been stronger, and it should not be abused. Pyongyang and Washington need to confirm their shared will to meet face-to-face and instill confidence that they will be talking in good faith when they do.”
• In an op-ed for The China Daily, Zhu Feng, Dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, called for the US to sincerely consider North Korea’s interests as part of the diplomatic maneuvering necessary for successful denuclearization. “Since the DPRK has strongly refused to denuclearize under any external pressure, Washington should ease or lift part of its sanctions against the DPRK and provide it with some economic compensation in return for taking some denuclearizing measures,” Zhu suggested. He also urged North Korea “to take concrete actions for denuclearization, complete with a timetable, to convince the US that it is sincere about denuclearization.”
• The nationalist Global Timesimmediately called for “restraint” and “calm” on both sides following Trump’s announcement, and highlighted the possibility that North Korea may misinterpret the US’s intentions given that the cancellation followed the North’s demolition of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site even though the timing was more likely the result of the time differences. In response to the meeting between Chairman Kim and President Moon, the Times was optimistic for the Summit’s success, but warned Washington that “it should respect North Korea’s legitimate security concern rather than arrogantly trying to bring Pyongyang to its knees.” The Times also took the opportunity to hail China’s role in the denuclearization process in response to “the claim that China is being marginalized” in media reports “in South Korea and the West” by asserting in an editorial that “China is a crucial driving force of the progress on the peninsula. […] China’s strength and geopolitical position is obvious to all.”
• In an op-ed for the Global Times, Wang Peng, associate research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China and the Charhar Institute, asserted that, “Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy strengthens China’s say over the peninsula issue. Although the US-North Korea summit will likely be held, the twist has largely dampened the enthusiasm of the international community, including North Korea’s anticipation. […] The decision to waffle over the meeting has brought more harm than benefit to US interests and the Trump administration. Trump’s reckless backtracking has dented the US’ international strategic credibility, which is vital to the US being a superpower.”

JAPAN
At a press conference on May 23, 2018, Japanese Foreign Press Secretary Norio Maruyama reiterated Japan’s support for President Trump’s hardline after being questioned about Trump’s suggestion that the Summit be postponed following his meeting with President Moon: “Japan highly values the strong determination shown by President Trump in seeking to elicit concrete actions by North Korea. Japan will continue to firmly convey its views to the United States ahead of the upcoming U.S.-North Korea Summit Meeting and advance preparations with the U.S. side.”

• The progressive Asahi Shimbun cynically observed in an editorial that “Trump’s foreign policy posture remains as unpredictable as Pyongyang’s is inflexible,” and called for China, South Korea, and Japan to “put more diplomatic pressure” on both sides to keep the dialogue moving forward.
• The Japan Times claimed that the Summit seemed doomed from the start and that President Trump’s announcement was “no great surprise.” The Times warned that North Korea’s neighbors must “brace for a return to antagonism,” and lamented that, “Maintaining the coalition will be difficult if the governments in Beijing and Seoul, which seek to engage Pyongyang, believe that the breakdown in talks and the loss of diplomatic momentum are Washington’s fault, a view encouraged by Trump’s impulsiveness.”
  
• The Mainichi Shimbun argued that cancellation of the Summit would provide “a chance to start over.” The Mainichi noted the substantial progress that has been made by both sides as part of the process, but also that “It is important to take time to organize a fruitful summit meeting instead of hastily arranging talks for the talks’ sake.” Ultimately, however, the Mainichi placed the responsibility of the Summit’s success on North Korea: “If Pyongyang clarifies that it will completely abandon its nuclear weapons program and pursue economic growth while receiving assistance from Japan and the United States, it will lead to a fruitful U.S.-North Korea summit.”
  
• Following President Trump’s initial suggestion of cancelling the Summit, the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun expressed its support for US demands for complete denuclearization: “It is important to stick to the principle of demanding North Korea’s ‘complete, verifiable, and irreversible nuclear dismantlement,’ without being swayed by Pyongyang.” After Trump’s formal announcement, the Yomiuri conceded that Trump’s strategy was risky, but asserted that “The North Korean side is to blame for causing turmoil over the summit.”
  
• Kuni Miyake, president of the Foreign Policy Institute and research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, penned an open letter to President Moon in the Japan Times which implored Moon to improve relations between Japan and South Korea as part of his maneuvering for denuclearization: “Mr. President, the next few months will be critical in your endeavor to achieve peace and prosperity in the peninsula which the entire Korean nation deserves. You have successfully connected Pyongyang with Washington. Now it is high time for you to reconnect Seoul with Tokyo.”
  
  

INDIA

• In an editorial, left-leaning The Hindu urged both sides to focus on the acts of good faith they have already made and commit to the diplomatic process: “Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim should keep in mind the larger goal of de-escalation of tension, if not outright denuclearisation, on the peninsula and work to reschedule the summit. The only sound way to address the Korean nuclear crisis is diplomacy.”
• The business-focused Economic Times argued that India could “serve as a neutral broker” between North Korea and the US given its interest in preserving stability in East Asia as well as its own sympathy with “North Korea’s desire to be seen as a member of the nuclear-enabled countries.”  
• The Indian Express, a liberal paper, described President Trump’s announcement as more of the same: “With the Iran deal off, and the renewed turmoil in Palestine over the US embassy’s relocation from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the talks with North Korea were to be Trump’s big opportunity to make history, and appear more presidential and more statesmanlike than he has in all his 18 months in office.” The Indian Express noted that there was still hope that the Summit would take place as scheduled, and suggested that “the least the two leaders can do now as they rethink their options, is to stay away from calling each other names and sending out nuclear threats on Twitter.”
• The center-right Times of India responded tepidly to the news of President Trump’s cancellation announcement by asserting that “even if the summit had taken place, it wasn’t clear what substantive results would be achieved apart from the optics of the two leaders meeting.” Following Trump’s tweet suggesting that the Summit would occur as planned, the Times chided the US leader for his disruptive mercuriality: “Trump might consider himself the ultimate dealmaker, but blowing hot and cold only adds to confusion. […] The only way a deal can be made with Pyongyang now is through building trust from scratch. And that requires a consistent and coherent diplomatic approach on Washington’s part.”

RUSSIA
In a meeting with editors-in-chief from the state-owned media outlet TASS, Russian President Vladimir Putin argued that high-level meetings between the US and North Korea were essential for the process of denuclearizing the peninsula. President Putin also expressed the need to give North Korea more incentive to cooperate in negotiations: “To my mind, North Korea should be given guarantees of sovereignty and inviolability in order to talk about complete denuclearization of North Korea. […] They are guarantees of an opportunity to decide on their own future.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin echoed these concerns to TASS in an interview: “If we take into account how delicate and sensible the North Korean situation is, this may exacerbate tensions and set back [sic] relations to how they had been several months ago. [That is] when there were talks of worsening military and political tensions, carrying out strikes, estimating the number of victims and other apocalyptic scenarios, which, as we all know, couldn’t just remain local.”

 

BRAZIL

• According to an analyst from the O Globo newspaper, even though Trump’s move to cancel the meeting with Kim Jong Un was brusque, it was a similar way of reacting to North Korea’s hostile statements made against the U.S. in the last few days – such as the criticism issued by the North Korean vice chancellor, calling US Vice President Mike Pence “a dumb politician”. It however would not represent an energetic rejection of the debate among the two countries.
• The left-oriented online portal Carta Capital highlighted that the decision made by President Trump to call off the meeting with Kim Jong Un came out in the same day that North Korea announced the demolition of an important nuclear complex of the country, although the supposed demolition has not been accompanied by the international press or other independent parties, but only by “invited people.”
• The supposed ambience of peace that had been established between the U.S. and North Korea was replaced by a succession of various disagreements and controversial pronouncements by authorities from both sides that culminated in the U.S. government cancellation of the meeting with the dictator Kim Jong Un, according to the right-oriented magazine Veja.