Policy Alert #215 | October 14, 2020

In the first week of October, the Quad – a strategic forum that includes Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. – held its second-ever foreign ministers meeting in Japan. Despite the anticipation of the meeting’s potential progress in transforming the Quad into an “Asian NATO,” the ministerial meeting in Tokyo did not lead to any joint statement nor significant deepening of security cooperation, while the U.S. stood out as the only participant who made specific remarks targeting China at the meeting.

Due to President Trump’s COVID diagnosis, Mike Pompeo had to cut visits to Mongolia and South Korea from his Asia trip, but the U.S. Secretary of State took the opportunity in Tokyo to rally support from Washington’s closest allies in the Indo-Pacific for a deeper collaboration against China’s regional influence and to accuse China of covering up and worsening the pandemic. Secretary Pompeo stated that it is “more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the Chinese Communist Party’s exploitation, corruption and coercion,” pointing to recent Chinese activities in the East and South China Seas, the Mekong region, the Himalayas, and the Taiwan Strait.

In contrast, Australia, Japan, and India made no specific mention of China or the Communist Party of China by name. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne emphasized that the Quad “has a positive agenda” and that the region should be “governed by rules, not power.” Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that the goal of the Quad should be “advancing the security and the economic interests of all countries having legitimate and vital interests in the region.” Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi expressed interest in expanding multilateral cooperation with European countries, stating that it is “important to cooperate with as many nations as possible that share these basic values and common rules.”

In this RPI Policy Alert, we survey the Rising Powers on how they evaluate the Quad’s future role in the Indo-Pacific amid the rising level of geopolitical competition in the region.

 

China

Before the Quad meeting, Beijing clearly iterated its concern of China being the center of attention. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin commented on the Quad meeting by advocating against “forming exclusive cliques” while insisting that “multilateral and plurilateral cooperation should be open, inclusive and transparent.” Wang also added, “Instead of targeting third parties or undermining third parties’ interests, cooperation should be conducive to mutual understanding and trust between regional countries.”

After the meeting, the Chinese Embassy in Japan released a statement criticizing Secretary Pompeo. The statement accused Pompeo of “repeatedly fabricated lies about China” and “maliciously manufactured political confrontation” and reiterated Beijing’s position of urging Washington to “abandon the Cold War mentality and ideological bias.” Subsequently, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying repeated that “organizing closed and exclusive cliques will not help enhance mutual trust and cooperation,” while she also emphasized that Beijing wishes “relevant countries will bear in mind the common interests of all countries and mankind and focus on beating the virus with collective efforts while creating a peaceful environment and cooperation opportunities for regional and global economic recovery.”

• In an op-ed from the nationalist tabloid Global Times, Xin Qiang, the deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, questions Washington’s effectiveness in gathering the support from the Indo-Pacific region to balance China: “Although the US has made great efforts to woo its allies to check and balance China, its effect is limited. These countries have gradually been aware of US unreliability – breach of promises, flouting international rules, and ignoring international obligations. They cannot depend on such a country to commit to alliance obligations.”
• A commentary article from South China Morning Post, an independent newspaper based in Hong Kong, points out that although India and Australia were not enthusiastic about the Quad when the forum was first established in 2007, the two countries have been stepping up in recent years while also improving their bilateral relations: “India and Australia appear to have not only warmed up to the idea of the Quad, but also to each other, even as both have individual concerns about upsetting China.”
• In an op-ed from the nationalist tabloid Global Times, Zhang Jiadong, the director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, argues that China should support a free, open, and inclusive regional order and that China needs to be “more scientific” in positioning its relationship with the world, especially in terms of values: “China should emphasize its commonness with Chinese characteristics in world civilization. Only in this way will the U.S. efforts to establish an anti-China alliance system under the banner of ‘differences in value and culture’ not be widely recognized and supported. Then China can change the current unfavorable situation.”

 

India

Since the September sideline meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) September gathering in Moscow, the tensions between India and China have been de-escalating as both sides agreed to disengage troops at the disputed border. At the ministerial meeting in Tokyo, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar avoided mentioning China and its ruling party and suggested the Quad should emphasize the “security and the economic interests of all countries having legitimate and vital interests in the region.” While not directly targeting China, Minister Jaishankar made the point that, “As vibrant and pluralistic democracies with shared values, our nations have collectively affirmed the importance of maintaining a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific.”

• An editorial from the left-leaning The Hindu highlights Washington’s intention of turning the Quad into a full-fledged military alliance of countries against China and proposes that the Indian government “should not downplay the import of such openly stated intentions” as New Delhi has thus far charted its course based on strategic autonomy: “Mr. Pompeo’s words could well be bluster borne of politics ahead of the U.S. elections, but they point to an interest in bringing India into bilateral tensions in the Indo-Pacific, while inviting the Quad to take a role in India-China tensions as well. The Modi government has rebuffed such suggestions, and any shift would be unwise now.”
• An editorial from the center-right The Times of India praises the Quad meeting as a movement toward the formalization of the platform in light of growing Chinese assertiveness and advises New Delhi to step up the security partnership as a low-cost way of balancing Beijing. The editorial also suggests that the security partnership should be expanded to other East Asian nations to create a platform that can resist China’s bullying: “China does hold the strategic-security-economic advantage in one-on-one scenarios with most countries in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s insistence on bilateral dealings to resolve issues exemplifies this point. Which is why having a multilateral or plurilateral platform to counterbalance China is far more effective. And the Quad can be the nucleus of such a platform.”
• An editorial from the pro-BJP government The Pioneer accuses China as an avaricious maximalist who sees India as a thorn in its flesh. The editorial remains uncertain about the prospect of the Quad evolving into a security alliance like NATO, while it specifically promotes stronger bilateral relations between India and Australia: “China’s recent belligerence despite gifting the world the pandemic that has ripped the global economy to shreds, driven millions into poverty and destabilized the global system means that the Quad is not just sending a message to Xi and other Chinese Communist Party members. It is also telling the rest of the world that four large and successful democracies are willing to stand up to Beijing’s bullying and that other nations can take shelter behind them…Australia, too, has spearheaded the campaign to unveil the conspiracy behind the Wuhan virus and is at the receiving end of Chinese hit back at its economy, there is a shared concern. India has to map out a strategy of opening doors of cooperation in relation to its Andaman and Nicobar Islands with Australia.”

 

Japan

The rising tensions between China and the U.S. present a serious diplomatic challenge for Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Similar to the remarks from Australia and India, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi avoided echoing Secretary Pompeo’s direct criticism against Beijing, but instead emphasized Japan’s interest in multilateral cooperation by advocating the potential inclusion of France and Germany in the Indo-Pacific dialogue. In addition to the Quad meeting, Minister Motegi and Secretary Pompeo met on the sideline and reinforced the significance of U.S.-Japan bilateral relations as a cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific under the Suga administration.

• An editorial from the progressive Asahi Shimbun urges that the Quad should not be a tool for the United States’ battle with China over global hegemony when their rivalry is becoming increasingly intense and acrimonious: “The reality is that many countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, are not willing to clearly take sides with either Washington or Beijing. The only way for other countries to deal with China is to seek coexistence based on cooperation while trying to discourage Beijing from taking actions to challenge the existing order and making long-term efforts to extract change from the Chinese government.”
• An editorial from the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun stresses the importance of multilateral cooperation in the promotion of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” as China attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea and the South China Sea: “It is important for Japan, based on the Japan-U.S. alliance, to cooperate with Australia, India and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to urge China to exercise self-restraint… European countries, including Britain, France and Germany, also have an increasingly high opinion of the ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ vision. This may be due to growing wariness over China’s hegemonic behavior.”
• In an op-ed for the center-right The Japan Times, Stephen Nay, a senior associate professor at International Christian University and a visiting fellow at the Japan Institute for International Affairs in Tokyo, sees the Quad meeting as an important step in creating an institution that will bring critical public goods to the Indo-Pacific to accelerate its development, promote stability and establish a rule-based order. To achieve such goals, however, Stephen believes that the U.S. needs to constructively maintain economic, diplomatic, and security engagements in the region while incorporating Southeast Asian states, as well as the EU and Canada, into the Quad: “The problem with the Quad as it is currently conceived by the Trump administration is a formulation that will garner little support by its current members and saliently by Southeast Asian states, the countries that are at the geographic center of the Indo-Pacific and the countries that have the most to lose if the Quad is an institution that is primarily an anti-China grouping… Working with current Quad partners, the EU, and other countries such as Canada with an enduring interest in international development, resources should be pooled and or coordinated to building infrastructure, enhancing connectivity and strengthening the resilience and diversity of supply chains in the region.”