Policy Alert #191 | July 2, 2019

On June 28-29, 2019, delegations from the member states of the Group of Twenty (G20) convened in Osaka, Japan, for their annual summit amidst heightened tensions between various members over tariffs, territorial disputes, accusations of meddling in domestic elections, and the United States’ unilateral efforts to dissolve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. Bilateral and multilateral meetings on the sidelines of the event included meetings of the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), three corners of the Indo-Pacific Quad (India, Japan, and the United States), as well as much-anticipated bilateral meetings between China and the US, Russia and the US, and Russia and Japan. In this RPI Policy Alert, we review the Rising Powers’ scorecards from this year’s G20 Summit.

 

JAPAN

Japan served as host for this year’s G20 Summit, and notably opted to schedule the event ahead of the Group of Seven (G7) meeting that will convene in France later this year. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and US President Donald Trump met to reaffirm the “critical importance of their trilateral cooperation in efforts to maintain and promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region, sharing their understanding of an increasingly complex security situation” and express their support for the G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, which appears to be motivated by criticism of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In a separate meeting, Abe and Modi expressed their plans to schedule a 2+2 Ministerial Meeting to coordinate their efforts in improving regional connectivity through quality infrastructure and multilateral security and defense, including US-2. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono met with his Indian counterpart, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar for a strategic dialogue in which Kono expressed Japan’s expectation to conclude the stalled negotiations of the ASEAN Framework for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The meeting between Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended without a successful resolution to the territorial dispute between the two countries over the Kuril Islands. 

• The progressive Asahi Shimbun was critical of Prime Minister Abe’s foreign policy priorities, or at least his strategy in playing host, and noted that Abe snubbed South Korean President Moon Jae-In and was unsuccessful in convincing President Trump to return of the principle of anti-protectionism to the summit’s leaders’ declaration, a tradition which Trump broke at the 2018 G20 Summit. “We cannot help but wonder what his diplomacy is all about. If his foreign policy agenda is aimed more at bolstering his political standing than pursuing a long-term national strategy, it could lead to dangerous situations for the nation,” the Asahi concluded. 
• The left-leaning Mainichi criticized Abe’s “misfire” in his unsuccessful meeting with President Putin: “The latest meeting was the 26th between Abe and Putin. The prime minister attempted to rely for progress on “mutual trust” he believed the two leaders have nurtured, but it is clear that depending on their personal relationship has its limits. […] Japan obviously needs to rework its comprehensive strategy for winning the return of the Northern Territories.”
• The centrist Japan Times conceded that even if the summit did not produce huge changes, Abe did manage to garner domestic support ahead of elections next month: “If the G20 was not the unquestioned success that Abe had hoped, it cannot be called a failure either. The results of last week’s meeting were probably the most that can be expected from a group as disparate as this that is dealing with profound, structural problems that demand big solutions. The prime minister’s handling of this event will burnish his credentials in the election to be held later this month and that may ultimately prove to be the most important outcome for him.”
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun similarly critiqued the state of affairs between the G20’s members: “The G20 major economies, which together account for more than 80 percent of the global GDP, should go back to the starting point and regain their unity. Japan should play a leading role in helping the G20 achieve this goal, while pursuing its own national interests.”

 

CHINA

In a speech at the summit, President Xi Jinping highlighted the dangers of protectionism directly and advocated for reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO): “The G20 should continue to take the lead in making the world economy open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial for all. We must strengthen the multilateral trading system and pursue WTO reform as necessary. The goal of the reform is to bring the WTO up to date and make it better able to deliver its mandate of enhancing market openness and boosting development, and the results should be conducive to upholding free trade and multilateralism and to narrowing the development gap.” President Xi and President Trump met on the sidelines of the summit and announced that the stalled trade negotiations between the two countries would resume. In a meeting between BRICS members, Xi reportedly called upon the bloc to “to firmly uphold multilateralism, safeguard the international order based on international law and the international system with the UN at its core, advocate extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, and oppose illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction.” President Xi also had a meeting with Prime Minister Abe, in which he welcomed Japan’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative. 

• In response to the meeting between Xi and Trump, the state-supported China Daily noted that “things are still very much up in the air”: “Striking a badly needed trade deal is proving arduous enough. A remodeled China-US relationship featuring coordination, cooperation, and stability as its keynotes, as Xi proposed in Osaka, is going to require even greater shared resolve to engineer.” The Daily also credited Japan for taking “concrete actions over the past two years to bring ties with China back onto a healthy track” and expressed optimism for the two countries “work[ing] together in defense of multilateralism and economic globalization.”
• The nationalist Global Times was cautious on the outcome of the meeting between Xi and Trump, and argued that China was ready to ride the choppy waters until the trade negotiations are completely settled: “Chinese society has grown mature enough to deal with any profound changes there might be in the China-US relationship. Chinese people are well-prepared for any possible uncertainty in future trade talks. The path of China’s development will not always be smooth and that is accepted by the Chinese public. Chinese people will not be surprised by any potential turmoil in China-US economic and trade relations, and they know China will handle it accordingly.”
• The independent South China Morning Post also focused on the Xi-Trump meeting, and acknowledged that the Chinese side had more movement to make to fulfill the promises Xi made at the G20 Summit. Nevertheless, the Post was optimistic that pragmatism would prevail: “So long as personal relations between Xi and Trump remain above the fray, hope is never lost. Despite fundamental differences, as Xi observed at the summit, the two countries can only benefit from pragmatic cooperation or lose from confrontation.”

 

INDIA

In a meeting with fellow BRICS leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the need for the bloc to promote multilaterialism, ensure energy security and stable prices of oil and gas, improve social and physical infrastructure to increase economic growth, ease restrictions on the movement for skilled workers between countries, and combat terrorism. Modi’s scheduled meeting with President Trump was complicated by the US leader’s eleventh-hour tweet criticizing Indian retaliatory tariffs. 

• The liberal Indian Express argued that India was moving away from its previous foreign policy of non-alignment given the country’s efforts to improve security ties with Japan and the US, and that India’s participation in the BRICS block was merely pragmatic. The Express also called for the government to reassess its current “data nationalism,” given how out-of-step India’s abstention from the meetings on international data flows was with the apparent consensus of the G20: “[G]iven the growing centrality of the digital economy for India’s growth and Modi’s visible isolation at Osaka, Delhi must take a fresh look at the assumptions behind its current approaches to data governance.” 
• The left-leaning Hindu similarly chided Modi for avoiding Abe’s pet project and compared it to the US’s refusal to allow an anti-protectionism clause in the leaders’ declaration. Noting that India will host the 2022 G20 Summit, the Hindu warned: “The G-20 is an important platform to discuss pressing issues, and it must not be detracted from its original purpose of promoting sustainable growth and financial stability by grandstanding by one or two members.”
• The liberal Hindustan Times lamented that the G20 members would most likely focus on issues of tariffs and trade rather than the root cause of recent discord between them: “These governments should instead have been wondering how to balance the increasingly disparate economic policies being taken by key governments and central banks. China seems set to continue down the path of debt-driven stimuli to hold up its economy. The US and most developed countries have been unable to wean themselves off easy money to keep their economies afloat. With demand struggling everywhere, it is clear a new policy framework is needed. Populist pushes from both the right and left in most major economies are only making clear policy making more difficult.”

 

RUSSIA

At a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed their efforts to improve ties and highlighted Japan’s increased role in the Russian economy through trade and infrastructure improvement projects. Regarding the state of the territorial dispute between the two countries, Putin appeared optimistic that progress was being made: “[I]t is noteworthy that we have succeeded in making some progress in launching joint economic activity on the islands. We approved business models for two out of the five areas identified by Mr Abe and myself. A number of pilot projects are to be carried out in the near future.” In a meeting with fellow leaders from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) bloc, President Putin advocated the members pursue reform at the World Trade Organization rather than calling for its dismantling. In a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the “RIC” subgroup of the BRICS bloc, President Putin explained that their cooperation in the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and G20 has been fruitful: “In a broader context, our cooperation in the RIC format could become a model for establishing an up-to-date, just and multipolar world order that rejects protectionism, the policy of unilateral actions and illegitimate sanctions.” President Putin also met with US President Donald Trump, in which the latter appeared to playfully joke about alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US elections.

• The nationalist Pravda Report featured an op-ed by journalist Stephen Lendman which critiqued the empty showmanship between President Xi and President Trump: “Trump and Xi smiles, handshakes, and friendly remarks in Osaka left major structural issues unresolved. Bilateral discussions will likely continue in the weeks and months ahead, resolution remaining unattainable unless the US side softens its position.”
• State-owned Sputnik News featured interviews with John Kirton, founder and co-director of the G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto, for his thoughts on this year’s event, and Fabio Massimo Parenti, professor of economic and political geography at the Lorenzo de’Medici Italian International Institute in Florence, Italy, regarding the summit’s effects on US-Russia relations. Sputnik also spotlighted criticism of Ivanka Trump’s efforts to participate in the G20 events. 

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.