Policy Alert #165 | May 10, 2018

On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reinstate economic sanctions on Iran. “America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail. We will not allow American cities to be threatened with destruction, and we will not allow a regime that chants ‘Death to America’ to gain access to the most deadly weapons on Earth,” Trump said in his speech to the press. European leaders, including British Prime Minister Theresa May, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have emphasized their commitment to the JCPOA despite the US withdrawal. In a phone call with President Macron, Iranian President Dr. Hassan Rouhani expressed his country’s frustration with follow through of the JCPOA, but reiterated Iran’s commitment to the agreement: “The Islamic Republic of Iran is fully committed to its obligations in the JCPOA and will pursue its interests as it has so far, but unfortunately, the other side has not demonstrated a satisfactory performance. […] If we reach a clear decision on the JCPOA within a limited time, we can witness broader interaction between Iran and Europe.” US allies in the region, most notably Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Syrian opposition leadership, have praised the move. The Rising Powers, meanwhile, have nothing but tough words for the US.

 

CHINA
During a regularly scheduled press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang responded to questions about the announcement of the US withdrawal from JCPOA: “China regrets the decision made by the US side. The JCPOA is a multilateral agreement reached by the P5+1, the European Union and Iran through negotiations and endorsed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2231. All relevant parties should implement the JCPOA in good faith and ensure its integrity and sanctity. This will contribute to upholding the international non-proliferation regime and peace and stability in the Middle East and will play an exemplary role for the political settlement of hot-spot issues.”

• The official state-run Xinhua characterized the announcement as a “huge blow to peace and security in the Middle East.”
• The China Daily, a state-backed media outlet, asserted, “[Trump’s] decision is not only a blow to the agreement itself but also renounces the multilateral efforts that secured the compact.” The Daily cited the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that show Iran has been compliant with the conditions of the JCPOA, and echoed concerns that the move could jeopardize not only peace in the Middle East but also upcoming negotiations with North Korea.
• The nationalist Global Times asserted that the move was motivated by the US losing its place as a superpower in the wake of increased cooperation and unity between states: “Crippling Iran seems to be Washington’s main intent. Iran has long been the US’ major target in the Middle East. The White House doesn’t want to reconcile with the country and perhaps regards Iran as a tool to further split the Middle East and so expand American clout in the region.”
• The independent South China Morning Post acknowledged the “problematic” nature of the JCPOA, but nevertheless urged the US to back down from Trump’s “dangerous” and “reckless” decision: “There are ways of strengthening the pact without tearing it up. To ignore what it has achieved would increase instability in the Middle East and imperil future deals and cooperation.”

INDIA
Indian officials chose to say little publicly on the issue. The Ministry of External Affairs issued the following response to media inquiries: “India has always maintained that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved peacefully through dialogue and diplomacy by respecting Iran’s right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy as also the international community’s strong interest in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program. All parties should engage constructively to address and resolve issues that have arisen with respect to the JCPOA.”

• The left-leaning The Hindu argues that Trump’s move was not motivated by security concerns, but rather pressure to cater to its allies in the region: “[t]he bigger concern for Mr. Trump as well as Washington’s closest allies in West Asia — Israel and Saudi Arabia — is Iran’s re-accommodation in the global economic mainstream.”The Hindu was cautiously optimistic that the JCPOA would hold, but expressed its concern that the other signatories would “buckle under American pressure. If they do cave in, West Asia will be a lot more dangerous.”
• Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic Editor of The Hindu, offered words of calm in response to the announcement: “Despite United States President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal itself won’t be scrapped as long as Iran and the other signatories: the U.K., France, Russia, China, Germany and the European Union remain committed to it.” Haidar’s article surveys five ways the US withdrawal from the JCPOA could affect India.
• The business-focused Economic Times criticized the move in an editorial, and called for India not to follow in the US’s footsteps: “India would do well to take a stand that can be justified on principle, rather than go by the number of defence contracts the country has with Israel and the US, the two main protagonists in a tiny camp that will face Europe, Russia, China and most of the rest of a disapproving world.”
• Economic Times editor Amit Mudgill speculated that, “Donald Trump’s hardline action on Tuesday to pull out of the nuclear treaty with Iran is giving Modi probably the biggest headache at a time when his government faces elections in about half-a-dozen key states.” The announcement of the US withdrawal is believed to have contributed to crude oil prices jumping to a three-year high, which Mudgill suspects will negatively impact the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party at the polls.
• The pro-government Daily Pioneer highlighted the similarities between India and Iran regarding the threat of sanctions over pursuit of nuclear technology: “India, a country that has faced sanctions following its nuclear tests in 1998, in principal does not support economic sanctions on such issues. At the same time, India has expressed its deep commitment to non proliferation of nuclear weapons and supported use of nuclear power only for civil and peaceful purpose.” The Pioneer emphasized the bilateral economic agreements between the two countries that should withstand the US exit from the JCPOA “as long as European countries do not follow suit.”
• The centrist-right Times of India argued that the US withdrawal was undermining two key US policy interests by potentially undermining North Korea’s faith in US commitments at the upcoming Trump-Kim summit and reestablishing Pakistani influence on Afghanistan. “In South Asia, Iran has emerged as an important channel through which Pakistan’s strategic hold over Afghanistan is being offset. India’s investment in Iran’s Chabahar port, for example, serves that purpose,” the Times explained.
• Devirupa Mitra, deputy editor and diplomacy correspondent at the left-leaning digital news outlet The Wire, noted how India was blindsided by the announcement: “There is also the question of India’s strategic investment in Chabahar port in Iran which is critical for connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia. During the visit of the now former US secretary of state Rex Tillerson, India had got assurances that it could go ahead with its cooperation with Iran on the project. This year, India has also been looking forward to accelerating the implementation of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC).”

RUSSIA
In an official statement following President Trump’s announcement, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its “grave concern” for the US acting contrary to the consensus of the international community: “The decisions announced on May 8 are a new confirmation of Washington’s intractability. They also show that the US objections to Iran’s absolutely legal nuclear activity are nothing but a smokescreen for settling political scores with Iran. Washington’s newly unveiled position is a significant violation of the JCPOA. A joint commission of the JCPOA member states must promptly and scrupulously consider and assess this situation using the established procedures. Russia is open to further cooperation with the other JCPOA participants and will continue to actively develop bilateral collaboration and political dialogue with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” In an interview with the press, Acting Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov alleged that the action was merely a “cover” for protectionist policies: “It is actually protectionism in disguise since these steps run totally counter to the WTO’s rules.”

• State-owned Sputnik News featured soundbites from academics, peace activists, and retired US and French military officials in its coverage of the US exit from JCPOA.
• Lyuba Lulko, a correspondent for the nationalist Pravda Report, grimly forecasted that the US withdrawal from JCPOA is the beginning of World War III. With Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey restarting their nuclear programs in response to one another, and Israel’s own stockpile, Lulko argued that, “[W]e will see four nuclear powers in the Middle East in a few years, where ISIS is still struggling to survive. North Korea will be willing to revisit its nuclear ambition as well, and the principle of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons will go down in history forever.”

JAPAN
Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono issued the following statement in response to the US announcement of withdrawal: “The United States announced on May 8th that it will withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and begin reinstating US sanctions on Iran.It would be discouraging should the announcement have a major impact that makes the continuation of the JCPOA difficult. Japan, however, continues to support the JCPOA which contributes to the strengthening of the international non-proliferation regime and stability of the Middle East, and hopes for constructive actions by relevant parties. Japan will remain in close communication with relevant parties to maintain the JCPOA. Japan pays close attention to the situation while carefully analyzing possible influence that this announcement may cause.”

• The left-leaning Mainichi Shimbun “welcomed” Trump’s attempt to clearly demonstrate his intentions to seek a “strict agreement” with North Korea, but argued that the execution may have undermined the negotiations before they even began: “[T]he latest decision by Trump could be viewed as an example of how the United States does not hesitate to easily break agreements reached through serious negotiations with other countries. Such practices could damage the international community’s trust in the United States.”
• The Japan Times condemned Trump’s announcement as “a blow to U.S. leadership, a rebuke to its allies and threatens to unleash a regional arms race.” The Times also took aim at the Japanese government’s “muted” response despite the risk that the increased economic ties with Iran will become “yet more collateral damage in a misguided decision by the U.S. president.”
• The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, meanwhile, mirrored the Japanese government’s moderate calls for calm and reconciliation: “It is vital that the nuclear deal does not collapse, and that the central components relating to the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities remain intact. […] Japan supports the continuation of the nuclear deal, from the perspective that it contributes to the enhancement of the international nuclear nonproliferation system and stability in the Middle East. The government needs to urge both Washington and Tehran to prevent the situation from deteriorating.”

RPI acknowledges support from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its activities.