Policy Alert #247 | March 24, 2022
Today marks one month since Russia ordered a “special military operation” and advanced into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. At least ten million Ukrainians have been displaced internally or have fled abroad as refugees. Thousands more people were able to escape cities under attack this week, but many remain trapped as humanitarian corridors keep failing. Intense fighting continues over several key places, including the capital of Kyiv and the strategic southern port city of Mariupol. If Russian troops took control of Mariupol, they would hold most of the stretch between the Donbas region in the east and Crimea in the south.
NATO has rejected Kyiv’s request for a no-fly zone, reasoning that the step would provoke Russia into a waging a larger war that could pit the U.S. and its allies against the nuclear-armed country. In a video posted on social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed NATO over the decision.
US President Biden arrived in Brussels on March 23 ahead of emergency meetings with NATO allies aimed at presenting a united front against Russia. The US and its European allies plan to announce new sanctions for Russia and new humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Biden also plans to talk to European partners about China’s ties to Russia. The US is concerned Beijing will provide economic or military aid to Moscow. Biden discussed this concern with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a virtual meeting on March 18. European Union leaders are planning their own summit with Xi on April 1.
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed a proposed deal in full for the first time on March 14. The two sides have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed some progress has been made, while the Kremlin stressed the conflict would end when the West took action to address Moscow’s security concerns. President Zelenskyy has raised hopes with recent statements that seem to accept that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO. But even a negotiated cease-fire seems a distant prospect, let alone a lasting peace.
Russia
In his latest comments, Putin sought to justify the war in Ukraine, repeating his assertion that he was seeking to defend Russian speaking communities there through “demilitarization and de-Nazification.” Responding to Western defense analysts’ allegations that the Russian military campaign was going less well than expected, Putin asserted, “Our army will fulfil all the tasks. I don’t doubt that at all. Everything is going to plan.”
Putin claimed the financial penalties imposed on Russia by the West amount to a “declaration of war.” “But thank God, we haven’t got there yet,” Putin added. The Russian President also stated that any attempt to install a no-fly zone in Ukraine would cause catastrophic consequences for Europe and the world: “The current leadership needs to understand that if they continue doing what they are doing, they risk the future of Ukrainian statehood.”
On March 21, in response to Japanese sanctions, Russia announced it was withdrawing from negotiations with Japan aimed at signing a formal World War II peace treaty. According to the Russian Ministry, Russia would not continue negotiations with Japan on a peace treaty “under current conditions,” citing Japan’s “openly unfriendly positions and attempts to damage the interests of our country.”
China
In response to news outlets purporting that China had signaled willingness to provide military assistance to Russia, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the US of spreading disinformation. Chinese Spokesperson Zhao Lijian underscored China’s commitment to provide humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, contrasting that with the actions of the US in providing weapons: “Which do the civilians in Ukraine need more, food and sleeping bags or machine guns and mortar rounds?” Russia has also denied asking Beijing for military help.
On March 18, President Biden and President Xi spoke over a two-hour video call, where both sides stressed the need for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine. Xi stated, “The top priorities now are to continue dialogue and negotiations, avoid civilian casualties, prevent a humanitarian crisis, and end the war as soon as possible.” In addition, Xi advocated for Russia-Ukraine dialogue and negotiations, and suggested Washington and NATO conduct talks with Russia to solve the “crux” of the Ukraine crisis and resolve the security concerns of both Russia and Ukraine.
Xi also warned against sanctions: “Sweeping and indiscriminate sanctions would only make the people suffer. If further escalated, they could trigger serious crises in global economy and trade, finance, energy, food, and industrial and supply chains, crippling the already languishing world economy and causing irrevocable losses.”
- In an op-ed for the independent South China Morning Post, Maria Siow and Su-Lin Tan explain why the Quad’s is OK with India, not China, giving Russia economic support: “This is more than just a double standard… It reflects a desire among the US and its allies to preserve India’s position in the regional security framework and prevent Moscow getting closer to Beijing.”
- In an op-ed for the nationalist Global Times, Zheng Yongnian, Research Professor at the National University of Singapore, believes we can regard the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a ‘preview’ of the US’ possible acts in Asia: “NATO will not stop its expansion in Europe, but will likely expand to Asia… unless there is another bloc that forms as a check and balance.”
India
India is the only Quad member not to have condemned Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. In a meeting with Japan on March 19, Modi refrained from commenting directly on Ukraine but noted that geopolitical incidents were “presenting new challenges.” At a virtual summit between India and Australia on March 21, Modi also avoided talking about the issue. India has abstained five times from condemning Russia at the UN.
India, the world’s biggest oil importer behind China and the US, has agreed to purchase 3 million barrels of Russian oil at a heavy discount. The Indian government is also exploring ways to maintain trade with Russia by reviving the rupee-ruble trade, which would let Indian and Russian firms do business while bypassing the need to use US dollars, and lowering the risk of potential US sanctions.
- In the business focused The Economic Times, Sreeram Chaulia, Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, highlights India’s complicated history and relationship with Russia: “The scale and breadth of Indo-Russian ties have a long history and, despite India’s geopolitical recalibrations over the last 15-odd years, especially vis-à-vis the US and China, it still bears momentum.”
- In an op-ed for the pro-ruling party Daily Pioneer, Bhopinder Singh, former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry, attests that the situation in Ukraine validates India’s mistrust of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): “As Kyiv desperately beseeches Delhi to intervene, memories of Ukraine condemning India’s nuclear re-testing in 1998 is conveniently forgotten… India has delivered far more responsible outcomes than those of most NPT signatories.”
- In an op-ed for the liberal Indian Express, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Contributing Editor, claims that the self-serving stances of all the great powers make it more likely that the world will be marked by conflict: “Europe is now caught between its desire to send a strong message to Russia and sanctimonious moralizing… its credibility is impugned because it is not willing to pay even the minimal economic price for a strong stand.”
- In the business focused The Economic Times, Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, argues that the war gives India a golden chance to export record quantities of wheat: “Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s largest exporters of wheat. The war has sent global wheat prices soaring. If India acts quickly, Ukraine could hand it a $8 billion bonanza.”
Japan
On March 19, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Indian Prime Minister Modi that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had shaken the “foundation of international order” and required a clear response. Japan’s Press Secretary Hikariko Ono informed the media that Kishida asked Modi to impress upon Putin the need to maintain free and open international order.
As Japan follows other countries’ lead in sanctioning Russia, ties between Russia and Japan have worsened. Japan reacted angrily after Russia withdrew from peace treaty talks with Japan and froze joint economic projects related to the disputed Kuril islands because of Japanese sanctions. Kishida strongly opposed Russia’s decision: “This entire situation has been created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia’s response to push this onto Japan-Russia relations is extremely unfair and completely unacceptable.”
