Policy Alert #154 | November 7, 2017

US President Donald Trump began his second tour abroad and first tour in Asia on Sunday. Between November 5th and 12th, Trump will visit Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit. Trump visits amidst the continued tensions on the Korean Peninsula, recent improvements in Sino-Korean relations over South Korea’s deployment the terminal high altitude area defense (THAAD) missile defense system, and renewed controversy over the so-called “comfort women” issue between South Korea and Japan.

Ahead of his first stop in Tokyo, Trump managed to ruffle the feathers of some of his hosts before arrival. In an interview with Fox News, the US President gave a harsh warning on the issue of North Korea’s continued nuclear and missile tests, saying, “Japan is a warrior nation, and I tell China and I tell everyone else that listens, I mean, you’re gonna have yourself a big problem with Japan pretty soon if you allow this to continue with North Korea.” Although his comments were directed at China, the suggestion of Japan’s remilitarization, especially in the wake of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party’s electoral win, South Korean commenters were taken aback at the suggestion that their former colonizer would again mobilize. In this policy alert, we assess the Rising Powers’ response to the first half of Trump’s Asia visit.

JAPAN
In an interview ahead of Trump’s arrival, Prime Minister Abe said that he and Trump would “make the bond of the Japan-US alliance even stronger, building on our friendship and relationship of trust.” He presented Trump with matching caps embroidered with “Donald & Shinzo Make the Alliance Greater” before the two took to the greens for a round of golf. Despite the warm language regarding the security alliance at the meeting, Trump criticized the current economic ties between the two countries, saying, “Right now our trade with Japan is not fair and it’s not open, but I know it will be soon.” He was dismissive of Japan’s attempts to rekindle the Trans-Pacific Partnership, instead advocating for a new bilateral trade agreement.

• In an editorial reviewing the policy challenges Prime Minister Abe faces during his third term, The Japan Times characterized Abe as having “thrown Tokyo’s full support behind the US administration of President Donald Trump.” The Times called on Abe to weigh the move–and his  goal to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution by 2020–carefully, as the “energy and resources” they require could be better spent on the social and economic issues facing the country.
• Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, called on Trump to take an “Allies First” approach regarding the North Korean threat. Although “coercive diplomacy now makes sense” in the North Korean case, Trump must acknowledge that in the event of military engagement with North Korea, “Japan and South Korea might suffer massive damage, and if the damage resulted from Washington’s provocative actions, the US would lose its alliances — the cornerstones for US strategy in Asia — with them.”
• Ahead of Trump’s arrival, the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, asserted that, “To restrain China’s self-righteous maritime advances while properly dealing with the threat from North Korea, it is indispensable for Japan, the United States and Southeast Asian nations to strategically cooperate with one another,” and called on Abe to remind Trump that despite Xi’s aspirations to “make China a military and economic power” in Asia, it is “the Japan-US alliance [that] has underpinned the regional peace and prosperity of Asia.” The Yomiuri also had tough words for the South Korean government using the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) “as anti-Japan propaganda.” South Korea submitted “documents on comfort women” for inclusion in UNESCO’s Memory of the World Register, which recently shelved the issue, in an effort that “blatantly runs counter to the spirit of the Japan-South Korea agreement reached in 2015 to resolve the issue of comfort women.” UNESCO registered documents on the Nanjing Massacre, a historical controversy between China and Japan, in 2015.
• The liberal Asahi Shimbun, meanwhile, called on Abe to “tell Trump–in plain and clear language–what the president needs to hear,” namely, “to avoid taking any military action against North Korea,” and to face the “realities concerning the bilateral security alliance” such as the hardships faced by the residents of Okinawa prefecture, which hosts the bulk of US forces in Japan.

KOREA
In Korea, thousands of protesters and counter-protesters gathered in Seoul ahead of President Trump’s arrival, to oppose and support the US president’s handling of the North Korea issue. Korean President Moon Jae-in has pursued a more measured response. Koh Yu-hwan, head of the advisory group to the National Security Council, highlighted Moon’s efforts to prepare for Trump’s visit by doing “maintenance activities” in South Korea’s own foreign relations by “reaching agreement over THAAD [with China] and inviting the North to the [Winter Olympic] Games.” Commenting on President Trump’s visit, Nam Gwan-pyo, deputy chief of South Korea’s Security Council, hailed Trump’s stop at the relocated US military base Camp Humphreys as “an opportunity to show President Trump that South Korea is making significant contributions to the alliance.” South Korea funded over 90 percent of the base’s $10 billion cost. Although the issue of North Korea looms over the visit, President Trump has made it clear that he does not feel the US allies are shouldering their fair share of the costs of the alliance, and that he considers the Korea-US Fair Trade Agreement to be a “horrible deal.”

• Kim Hong-gul, chairman of the Committee for National Unity at the Democratic Party of Korea and son of the late President and Nobel Peace Laureate Kim Dae-jung, said of the visit, “I hope President Trump will realize how close Seoul is to the inter-Korean border and how dangerous it is for people when a conflict arises. […] I wish the President will study more and speak less to see how the possible military option would devastate the country.” Kim advocates for a diplomatic solution to the tensions with North Korea by reopening dialogue through initiatives like the Sunshine Policy, and for transparency between South Korea, the US, and China over military strategies in the region, such as South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD missile defense system, to prevent misunderstandings and conflict.
• The Korea Times featured an interview with Balbina Hwang, a North Korea expert and former special advisor to the US State Department, in a three-part series on the nuclear crisis with North Korea. Hwang assured the interviewer that “Trump’s tweets and other utterances should be interpreted within the context they are meant as rhetorical statements that may reflect his personal feelings at any given time, but are not necessarily reflective of official US policies.” Ultimately, she added, the source of rising tensions is Pyongyang’s actions, not US rhetoric or policies. Hwang asserts the diplomatic solution “to secure peace is to bring the Korean War to a permanent end” by revising and expanding the 1955 Armistice into a true peace treaty.
• With regards to the current tensions between South Korea and Japan over the renewed controversy of the so-called “comfort women” issue regarding the Japanese Imperial Army’s sexual enslavement of young women during the Pacific War and Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s plan to revise the constitution to expand its military capabilities, chief editorial writer for liberal The Korea Times Oh Young-jin proclaimed “It is imperative to let the rest of the world know about what Japan’s latest turn will mean, and ring the alarm about what disaster the war criminal nation can bring about again.”
• Tong Kim, US correspondent for The Korea Times and fellow at the Institute for Korean-American Studies, explains that although improved ties with Beijing can be seen as a positive development, in light of “China’s more aggressive search for global leadership” from the events at the 19th Communist Party of China Congress, President Moon “must seek what’s best for Korea, but without weakening the alliance with the US.”
• The conservative Dong-A Ilbo demanded President Trump visit the demilitarized zone to “send a clear message to North Korea,” as all of his predecessors since President Ronald Reagan–except President George H.W. Bush–have done. Currently, Trump is scheduled to tour the relocated US base Camp Humphreys instead. “It will be a worthwhile and necessary thing to show the US president, who has wrong ideas about sharing of defense costs between the two countries, that South Korea has shouldered 94 percent of the expenses to build the modern US military base in Pyeongtaek. Nevertheless, it will be even more meaningful and symbolic for the US commander in chief to stand at the DMZ and show his determination to protect the lives and property of the Korean people.” The paper was also critical of the anti-US groups preparing to protest Trump’s visit, as the “ROK-US alliance should not be shaken.” “Law enforcement should be prepared, from beginning to end, to prevent any unexpected accidents or negative influences on the bilateral relationship. The government should persuade representatives of these groups to refrain from violent and aggressive actions. If necessary, President Moon or Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon should directly deliver a message to them,” the paper urged.
• The Korea Herald also had tough words for the protesters, criticizing them for forgetting that the US alliance was “the decisive factor in driving out the North’s invaders in the Korean War and further deterring another.” “What good will it do the nation to provoke a visiting foreign head of state and his fellow compatriots?” the editorial demanded. Claiming that the protesters are supporters of President Moon, the Herald called on the president to “issue a personal appeal to have them to behave themselves this time.” That said, the Herald also called attention to the fact that South Korea will be the shortest stop on his tour, scheduled to last only about twenty-four hours, and that the short stay “raised eyebrows among the country’s political circles.”
• The conservative JoongAng Daily echoed these sentiments, criticizing President Moon’s administration for being “overly laid-back” about the “potentially violent protests.” “Japan welcomed Trump wholeheartedly. It will make a sharp contrast if he is not treated well in Korea,” it warned. “Without our alliance with the US, we can hardly deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.”
• The liberal Hankyoreh, meanwhile, called for the South Korean government to “boldly refuse to accept any unreasonable demands” if attempts are made to renegotiate the Korea-US Free Trade agreement rather than continue to be “constantly pushed around by the US” on the issue. Staff writer Jung E-gil condemned the decision to allow Trump to address the National Assembly during his visit, noting that “Trump’s typical positions and remarks create a headache for Seoul.” “Even granting that South Korea plays a subordinate role in its relationship to the US, as long as South Korea continues to act like a subordinate, that relationship will not change, and South Korea will end up suffering even more from the US’s domineering behavior,” he said.

CHINA
When Trump’s visit to China was first announced in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping had warm words of welcome, saying, “I believe that President Trump’s upcoming visit to China means an important opportunity for the further development of China-US relations. […] And I believe his visit will be a special, wonderful and successful one.” Following his success of the 19th Party Congress last month, Xi recently directed the People’s Liberation Army to improve its readiness for war as part of his policy objectives. “The CMC [Central Military Commission] should lead the armed forces to be ready to fight and win wars, and to undertake the missions and tasks of the new era entrusted to them by the Party and the people,” he said. These efforts to strengthen its military might have complicated China’s relations with its neighbors, many of which are key US allies in the Asia-Pacific.

• Editorials in the state-directed China Daily were cautiously optimistic about President Trump’s visit, but noted that “much has changed” since President Barack Obama’s rebalancing efforts, such as the pending Code of Conduct in the South China Sea scheduled to be adopted by China and ASEAN later this month. “Any attempt to derail this process would be unwelcome and likely trigger a backlash,” the Daily warned.
• Xu Man, an assistant research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, called for the US and EU to “appreciate” China’s recent efforts to cut steel overcapacity and to use cooperation to solve the friction in trade relations. President Trump asked the Department of Commerce to investigate whether foreign imports of steel compromise US national security in April.
• Ahead of the 80th anniversary of the 1937 Nanjing Massacre by the Japanese Imperial Army and the start of President Trump’s tour, Chi Wang, president of the US-China Policy Foundation, argued that while the US does not pose a security threat to China, a remilitarized Japan may. He asserted that “Japan’s modern-day actions must be interpreted through the lens of the second world war [sic],” and expressed his hope that Trump “will not encourage Abe to rely further on militarisation.”
• The independent, Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post expressed cautious optimism about the outcomes of the visit, but noted that despite diplomats’ efforts to ensure the meeting is a success, “It remains to be seen whether the two sides are on the same page on Friday, or have managed expectations well enough to put a positive spin on outcomes,” due to “Trump’s unpredictability” and his “volatile relationship with the media.”
• As part of its coverage of the visit, the state-run People’s Daily featured interviews with trade and security experts about the likely outcomes of Trump’s visit.
• The China Daily covered other important diplomatic developments ahead of the APEC Summit in Vietnam. The Daily welcomed the recent improvements in Sino-Korean relations over the THAAD missile defense system. It was optimistic that “the thaw in China-ROK ties will hopefully be a shot in the arm to efforts to forge regional solidarity and cooperation at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting” later this week. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to China was hailed as further step in “cement[ing] the all-round strategic partnership between the two countries” that is “not just in their own interests, but also the interests of the world.” The paper took shots at Japan, however, by criticizing Japan’s announcement of a “strategic dialogue” with the US, India, and Australia to “counter China’s expanding influence.” It is inappropriate for Japan continuously “confront[s] China over issues of regional and international significance even though China’s stance on these issues is fair and reasonable,” the paper argued.

RUSSIA
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited China on a two-day tour October 31st to November 1st. In a speech in Beijing, Prime Minister Medvedev congratulated President Xi on the successful conclusion of the Communist Party of China’s 19th Party Congress, saying, “We understand how important these decisions are for the development of friendly China [sic] and we hope that our partnership, multidimensional and strategic interaction will become even more functional because of these decisions.” President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to attend the 2017 APEC Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam later this week, amidst speculation of a sideline meeting with President Trump.

• Government-run RT has been following Trump’s Asian tour closely, and published articles on the US’s deployments of additional bombers, stealth aircraft, and aircraft carriers to the Pacific ahead of ahead of Trump’s arrival, “despite repeated appeals to avoid escalating tensions” from Moscow and Beijing. RT’s coverage included the protests in Seoul over Trump’s visit, and a comparison of two speeches by Trump over North Korea, one in which he praised North Koreans as “warm, much warmer than the world really knows or understands,” and his more belligerent speech to rally troops stationed at Yokota Air Base, saying, “No dictator, no regime, no nation should ever underestimate American resolve.”
• Nationalist Sputnik analyzed Trump’s “cryptic remarks” regarding Japan’s possible handling of the North Korean threat against the US president’s previous comments that Japan should handle North Korea on its own.
• State-owned TASS highlighted Trump’s comment that he wants “Putin’s help on North Korea,” ahead of his Asia tour, and speculated about the outcomes of a meeting between the Russian and US presidents on the sidelines of APEC.

INDIA
Although not on President Trump’s itinerary, mention of India has thus far been ample by his emphasis on the US’s strategy and interests in the “Indo-Pacific region” when discussing cooperation with Japan, India, and Australia to secure freedom of navigation in the East and South China Seas. An official traveling with Trump explained that the use of the phrase instead of “Asia-Pacific” was intentional, “We have strong and growing ties with India. We talk about ‘Indo-Pacific’ in part because that phrase captures the importance of India’s rise.” The phrasing was also picked up by the Japanese media in the Asahi Shimbun’s coverage of Trump in Japan.

• The Hindustan Times was optimistic that President Trump would meet with President Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the 2017 APEC Summit in Vietnam later this week, reporting that, “It will be their first meeting since Trump unveiled his South Asia policy urging India to play a larger role in Afghanistan. New Delhi will focus almost exclusively on development and economic help, but Pakistan has thrown a tantrum expectedly, arguing, without any success, that India be denied a role.”
• The Economic Times published an editorial expressing support after Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s win in the lower house elections last month. The “political space” to amend the constitution to allow Japan to “acquire a normal military,” “will help improve the security in the region, especially in the context of an expansionist and aggressive China, a North Korea bent on nuclear blackmail and unresolved disputes that serve as flashpoints in the South China Sea and elsewhere.”
• Vikram S. Mehta, chairman of the Brookings Institution India, wrote that India must “track” China’s moves in the Middle East to secure oil resources “assiduously” in an op-ed for The Indian Express. Mehta argues that India must protect its “major strategic interests in the Middle East,” which include not only energy resources but also “eight million citizens who remit approximately $70 billion annually” in the wake of China’s maneuvering in the region.

BRAZIL

• In Brazilian media coverage of President Trump’s visit to Asia, the newspaper O Globo highlighted the protests in South Korea generated by Trump’s visit. O Globo described the primary divide between the protestors as war veterans who exhibit strong confidence on Trump’s decisions and civilians that blame him for taking the Korean peninsula to the brink of war. According to the article, in a meeting with President Trump South Korean President Moon Jae-in would defend his support for maintaining an opening policy with North Korea as a solution for the continued conflict.
• Andre Soares, author of a weekly column on China in the business newspaper Valor Economico predicts that the potential involvement of China in the conflict with North Korea and even the recent visit of the president of Taiwan to the US may be discussed during Trump’s visit. However, Soares notes that there has been only a limited mention of the details of President Trump’s economic agenda he plans to negotiate with Chinese officials, and even less has been said about which points of this agenda are of direct interest to Brazil.

This Policy Alert is part of a project at the Rising Powers Initiative exploring the linkages between energy security and maritime strategies in the Indo-Pacific that is supported by the MacArthur Foundation.